The NASCAR Cup Series heads from back-to-back races at its two shortest tracks to the longest oval track on the circuit, Talladega Superspeedway, for Sunday's GEICO 500 (3 p.m. ET, FOX).
The pack racing that we are accustomed to at superspeedways was definitely present with the Next Gen car at Daytona. That means we can expect more of the same at the bigger, wider and higher-banked Talladega.
As we know, the Big One is always looming at Talladega, and the tight pack racing can lead to underdogs finishing up front, or even winning.
That's exactly where I'm looking for this week's best early bets.
NASCAR at Talladega Picks
*Odds as of Wednesday afternoon
Erik Jones Top-10 Finish +310
Jones had a fast car in the Daytona 500, working his way to the front and even leading three laps.
In his career in the Cup Series, Jones has a 40% top-10 rate at Talladega and a 33% top-10 rate overall at superspeedways.
Yes, most of those finishes came in better equipment, but with the playing field leveled by the draft that doesn't worry me. He had finishes of 12th and ninth last year in his two lead-lap finishes at superspeedways while driving for Richard Petty.
Between his strong Daytona performance and a high top-10 rate, I expect he'll finish 10th or better well over the 24.4% implied odds we're getting at +360 at FanDuel.
The Bet: Erik Jones Top-10 Finish +310 | Bet to: +250
Daniel Hemric Top-10 Finish +600
Do you sense a theme here?
The lower-mid-tier cars are just underpriced at FanDuel. Hemric is another driver that should have significantly shorter odds.
His teammate, Justin Haley, is +320 for the exact same bet. While Haley is a great superspeedway racer, the discrepancy between the two isn't that big.
Hemric has finished ninth or better in three of his last five superspeedway starts in the XFINITY Series.
In the Cup Series, he brought home a fifth-place finish at Talladega with Richard Childress Racing.
Yes, Kaulig Racing is probably a step down in equipment — the team is in its rookie year in Cup after all.
But it's not a big enough step down to warrant these odds.
I certainly believe Hemric can beat the 14.3% implied odds that we're getting at +600 to finish inside the top 10.
The Bet: Daniel Hemric Top-10 Finish +600 | Bet to: +400
