The past two Cup Series races have been crazy, and it's fair to say that we should expect more of the same for Sunday's YellaWood 500 (2 p.m. ET, NBC) at Talladega Superspeedway.
Pack racing at Talladega is already unpredictable enough, then throw in the fact that a win from a current playoff driver would mean a free pass to the Round of 8, and the racing should be quite spicy.
In general, I have no interest in taking favorites in head-to-head driver matchups at superspeedways, so my eyes immediately scan for plus-money when NASCAR odds open.
To be frank, I don't like this matchup enough to bet it at this point, but I do believe it is the best of the bunch before cars hit the track this weekend.
NASCAR at Talladega Pick
*Odds as of Tuesday afternoon
Luck is a bigger factor in determining which drivers will win matchups at superspeedways than at most other tracks, so randomness can have a significant influence when analyzing past results.
However, when it comes to Austin Dillon vs. Tyler Reddick, the numbers suggest that Dillon should actually be the driver favored in this matchup.
In three combined races at the large superspeedways of Daytona and Talladega in the Next Gen car, Dillon's average finish of 9.3 easily bests that of Reddick (25.3).
And let's not forget that Dillon won the most recent superspeedway race at Daytona last month.
Perhaps more importantly, Dillon has posted a better average running position than his Richard Childress Racing teammate across those three events as well, helping to support the idea that the wrong driver is favored in this matchup.
Again, I'm not rushing to the window to make this bet by any means, but if pressed, this is my favorite driver matchup for Sunday's race at Talladega.
The bet: Dillon (+100) over Reddick
