Saturday's on-track activity had much less of an impact on NASCAR odds for Sunday's race in Atlanta than most other tracks.
Why? Well first, there's no practice at NASCAR Cup Series drafting tracks.
Second, while starting position and pit selection are important, it's not as crucial at circuits such as Atlanta, Daytona and Talladega.
As a result, sportsbooks aren't too worried about qualifying, and since there's no practice (not like it would matter much at Atlanta, anyway), NASCAR odds don't move all that much throughout the week compared to non-drafting tracks.
Therefore, there's not much new data to lean on when making NASCAR predictions ahead of Sunday's Quaker State 400 (3 p.m. ET, USA).
So with Todd Gilliland at 44-1 already on my betting card, I can't help adding one more long-shot pick on a driver who has been very good to me at drafting tracks through the years.
NASCAR Odds for Live 50-1 Long-Shot Prediction
*Odds as of Sunday afternoon
This is a complete homer pick, but I'm taking Ricky Stenhouse Jr., who's 50-1 to win today's race, according to the latest NASCAR odds.
Stenhouse is an extremely aggressive driver with a checkers-or-wreckers style, especially at drafting tracks like Atlanta.
In fact, Stenhouse has three career Cup Series wins, including the 2023 Daytona 500, which was very profitable for me – well, my wife was the person who won the 40-1 bet, but #SameBankAccount.
Again, with a lack of practice and a starting position not very impactful, I'm going back to the Stenhouse well and locking in a driver who knows how to draft, has won at this style of racing in the Next Gen car, but comes at the very palatable price of +5000.
The Pick: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+5000) to Win – bet365
