For the second time this season, the NASCAR Cup Series will go road racing in Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway.
While Sonoma has been a mainstay on the Cup Series schedule, the track was repaved after last season's event, making handicapping Sunday's race (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX) more difficult in years past.
Historically, saving tires to preserve rear grip over long runs was an essential skill to perform well at Sonoma, though the repave should make that much less important.
Further, a lack of tire falloff could make it very difficult to pass, so there's really no reason to rush into a big betting card early to wait and see how qualifying shakes out ahead of Sunday's race.
I am willing to take some shots on more conservative prop bets, and I have one top-10 already in mind.
NASCAR Odds, Pick for Sonoma
*Odds as of Tuesday afternoon
Again, the repave is not our friend when it comes to projecting which drivers will perform well this weekend.
However, most key data points point toward a strong run from Ross Chastain.
In two races at Sonoma in the Next Gen car, Chastain has posted the sixth-best driver rating, the fourth-best average running position and the fourth-best average finish.
Additionally, the driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet was very fast at the season's only road-course race, ranking fifth in driver rating en route to a sixth-place finish.
There is still enough uncertainty to prevent me from pounding Chastain to win outright right now, but a dabble on another top-10 finish from the Trackhouse Racing driver, especially at plus-money, provides enough wiggle room for me to lock it in now.
The bet: Ross Chastain (+140) for a Top-10 Finish – bet365
