The final drafting race of the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season takes place this weekend with Sunday's YellaWood 500 (2:30p.m. ET, NBC) at Talladega Superspeedway.
Drafting races, especially at the superspeedways of Talladega and Daytona, are known for their randomness, making betting on outrights a bit of a crapshoot.
That said, there is one part of superspeedway racing that's more predictable, and that's qualifying.
That's exactly where I'm aiming with my best early bets for Talladega.
NASCAR Picks for Talladega
*NASCAR odds as of Wednesday night
Toyota has won the pole position at all three of the Talladega races in the Next Gen car.
Christopher Bell took the pole at both races last year, while Denny Hamlin earned the top spot in the first race at NASCAR's longest oval earlier this year.
In fact, Toyota has put 12 drivers into the final round of qualifying out of 30 total cars in the three Next Gen races here.
That 40% top-10 starting ratio is impressive given that Toyota has made up just 15.8% of the field over the three Talladega races.
It's even more impressive considering they have only been able to place a maximum of 18 cars inside the top 10 over the three races. That's a full two-thirds of their entries starting inside the top 10, which was the exact ratio they had in the GEICO 500 earlier this year.
Bell is especially interesting with his two pole efforts last year and a sixth-place start earlier this year. That 2.7 average start makes 16-1 odds at both Caesars Sportsbook and bet365 a great value.
And while qualifying at non-superspeedway tracks isn't particularly predictive of qualifying at superspeedways, it's still notable that Bell has earned the pole position in five of the last 11 races.
In addition to Bell, Ty Gibbs has impressed in qualifying. He started third earlier this year and 10th last year.
That 10th-place start is also a bit misleading as he was unable to make a final-round qualifying lap.
Based off his first round speed and the fact that most drivers picked up time in the second round, it's likely he would have qualified around sixth or seventh, at worst. I like betting him at 20-1 at Caesars and bet365.
Finally, Martin Truex Jr. shouldn't be counted out at superspeedway qualifying, either.
He has starts of second and seventh at Talladega in the Next Gen car and is 28-1 at bet365. That's worthy of a sprinkle as well.
Caesars is offering this at 25-1, which I don't mind if you don't have access to bet365.
The Bets: Christopher Bell (16-1), Ty Gibbs (20-1) & Martin Truex Jr. (25-1) each to win pole position
Bet to: Bell (12-1), Gibbs (16-1) & Truex (20-1)
