NASCAR odds for superspeedway races, like Sunday's GEICO 500 (3 p.m. ET, FOX) at Talladega Superspeedway, look different than at most other racetracks.
Due to restricted engines, the fastest way for drivers to make laps around Talladega is by drafting in large packs, which has two key consequences:
- It makes the field more competitive, meaning slower cars can use the draft to run at the front of the pack.
- One small bobble or mistake can result in a huge wreck, taking out cars that are simply in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Because of this, NASCAR odds are are much longer at the top of the board since it's difficult to handicap which drivers will survive to the end of the race.
My personal strategy is to not go overboard and burn too much bankroll at these races, but because longer shots can overperform due to the draft and/or attrition, there are spots to pick off value at Talladega.
Again, let's not go nuts, but 30-1 NASCAR odds for a driver who has performed extremely well at Talladega during the Next Gen era is a worthy dart to throw.
NASCAR Odds | Best Bet Pick for Talladega
*NASCAR odds as of Sunday morning
There have been four races at Talladega since NASCAR introduced the Next Gen car at the start of the 2022 Cup Series season.
Here are the top five drivers — in terms of driver rating — across those four races, along with NASCAR odds from FanDuel for Sunday's GEICO 500:
- Ryan Blaney: +1000
- Chase Elliott: +1300
- William Byron: +1200
- Kyle Larson: +2000
- Erik Jones: +3000
That list alone illustrates why I'm taking a shot on Jones, but it's important to note that he's not just riding around at the back and stealing good finishes by avoiding wrecks.
Over this sample of four races, Jones has led the second-most laps, showing he also has the ability to run at the front of the field at Talladega.
Again, I'm taking a very conservative approach for this race, but am taking a low-risk, high-reward position on Jones to take the checkered flag.
The bet: Erik Jones (+3000) to Win — FanDuel
In North Carolina and interested in NASCAR betting? You can now sign up for NC sports betting, as legal online betting went live on March 11.
