Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series GEICO 500 (3 p.m. ET, FOX) at Talladega Superspeedway is not a race on which I want to be heavy.
Yes, Talladega can be both exciting and unpredictable, but that's exactly why I'm keeping my card very light on Sunday afternoon.
And the NASCAR odds for Talladega that do catch my eye are picks that allow me to risk little for bigger payouts, especially on drivers who have overperformed at this style of racing in the Next Gen car.
With this in mind, here's my favorite upside NASCAR pick for Sunday's GEICO 500 at Talladega.
NASCAR Pick for Talladega
*NASCAR odds as of Sunday morning
The Cup Series has now run five total races at Daytona and Talladega in the Next Gen car, giving us a solid sample size to examine in order to find betting value.
When looking at loop data for those events, Erik Jones is at the top, or near the top, in most of the meaningful statistics.
For example, Jones has posted the best driver rating and the best average running position at superspeedways since the start of last season while leading the third-most laps.
One might expect a driver with these numbers to be toward the top of the NASCAR odds board for Talladega, but that is not the case.
bet365 is currently offering Jones at 33-1 to win today's GEICO 500, which I have no problem with myself.
However, I'm opting for Jones at 16-1 odds to finish as the top Chevrolet in order to avoid the Fords, like Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney, that have been so fast at Daytona and Talladega in the Next Gen car as well.
The bet: Jones (16-1) to finish as top Chevrolet via bet365
