As a predictive analyst and mathematics Ph.D., I very often stick to the numbers when I'm betting, and I'm pretty value-sensitive.
That's been the case so far this week. After looking over the NASCAR odds, I have very few bets heading into this weekend's AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1) at Texas Motor Speedway. Most of those picks can be heard on either our motorspots podcast Running Hot, or on our daily sports betting show Green Dot Daily.
However, from time to time, I do go against my model if there are other factors I can't really model that may come into play. Thankfully, this isn't one of those spots.
I have both model reasons – and non-model reasons – to like this rookie driver to finish inside the top 10 on Sunday at Texas.
NASCAR Odds, Expert Pick, Prediction for Texas
*NASCAR odds as of Saturday night
One of the non-model factors I like to look at is what I call "garage talk."
In this case, it's more like social media talk, as Stewart-Haas Racing crew chief Rodney Childers tweeted that this was the best the No. 4 car driven by Josh Berry has unloaded off the hauler at an intermediate track in a long time.
That's certainly something to note when looking to back a rookie driver who dosen't have a ton of data at the Cup level.
That said, the data also likes Berry.
Berry was 14th-fastest in 10-lap average in practice out of 30 cars that made a 10-consecutive-laps run. In combination with teammate Noah Gragson's top-10 effort at Las Vegas, a somewhat similar 1.5-mile track that also had the same tire codes in use as this weekend, there's enough to justify the top-10 upside of Berry.
That's why my model has him at +350 as fair odds on this bet.
I think my model is probably a bit too aggressive there, but it's not wtihout reason. Texas has produced several incidents over the two Texas races in the Next Gen era, so as long as Berry's speed remains in the mid-teens and he avoids problems, I think 4-1 odds sounds about fair if we allow for a bit of model error.
That's what I'm willing to bet this number down to, making the 7-1 odds offered at ESPN BET quite attractive.
The Bet: Josh Berry top 10 (+700 at ESPN BET) | Bet to: +400
