The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season wraps up today at Phoenix Raceway. That being said, we have our last chance at Cup Series prop bet glory until Daytona Speedweeks 2021.
Phoenix Raceway is a one-mile flat track. Richmond and New Hampshire are its top corollary tracks. Martinsville can be considered a minor corollary track as well.
Looking at performance in these races, there are two underrated teammates on a top-tier team I like betting to finish near the front of the field:
NASCAR at Phoenix Betting Picks
Aric Almirola (+105) for Top-10 Finish
In three low-downforce races at Phoenix with Stewart-Haas Racing, Almirola has never finished worse than eighth place. In fact, if we extend that to Richmond and New Hampshire, Almirola is seven for eight in the top-10 department under low-downforce rules with his current team.
That should make him a favorite to finish in the Top 10 again this week, but he's priced as a dog at DraftKings and even money at FanDuel.
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Cole Custer (+265) for Top-10 Finish
Almirola's teammate has been nearly as good on the short flat tracks this year. Custer finished a place behind Almirola at both Phoenix and New Hampshire. He also finished in 14th place at Richmond.
Custer placed between 10th and 16th in average green flag speed, average running position and driver rating at each of these races. That certainly makes him an underdog to finish in the Top 10, but he's been on the cusp in each race in all the important metrics.
Adding in two races at Martinsville, Custer has four finishes in five races inside or near the Top 10. He also has a strong history in the various developmental series.
All together, Custer should be priced closer to +175.
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