Bristol is back – as is the short track's concrete surface – so we're a little extra excited about our NASCAR picks and predictions for Sunday's spring race in Tennessee.
Action Network called upon its staff, friends and Action App partners so we could gather the best bets for today's Food City 500 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX).
Our NASCAR expert PJ Walsh already scoured the NASCAR odds today, and he's targeting a familiar name for a juicy prop bet. Additionally, Action Network analyst Nick Giffen has an outright bet on Ross Chastain (+2800) that he logged earlier this week in the Action App.
But there's more value to be found in today's race. And for short-track aficionados who want a little action as the cars hit NASCAR's concrete coliseum, we've got all the Bristol picks and predictions you need below.
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NASCAR Picks & Predictions for Bristol
Brad Keselowski to Win (+2400)
Jim Sannes – Action App partner and Managing Editor of Digital Media at FanDuel Research
I had interest in Brad Keselowski before the week, but bookmakers were too keen on him.
After Kez qualified 17th for Sunday's race, though, he's now out to +2400, and that makes him a big value.
I've got Keselowski at 6.7% to win, up from 4.0% implied with the current odds. That's thanks to both his solid priors but also quality marks in practice (once you adjust for each driver's group).
Keselowski was a stud on tracks like this last year, so I'm fully on board with what the model is selling.
Pick: Brad Keselowski (+2400 at FanDuel)
Erik Jones to Win (+9000), Top 5 (+1000), Top 10 (+285)
Dale Tanhardt– NASCAR Betting Expert and YouTube Host
My favorite sleeper of the weekend is Erik Jones.
I’d say there’s a chance of finding 3-1 on Jones on a top 10 as more books release offerings ahead of the green flag. I’d bet also the outright down to 50-1, and I'd take the top 5 down to 8-1.
Saturday's practice was beyond weird due to the universal confusion with the grip level of the Goodyear compound and/or the resin substance applied to the racetrack. This makes Sunday's race a tough one to cap as it’s extremely difficult to cite accurate long-run speed.
Phoenix proved Jones has a car capable of legitimate speed after his team switched to a Toyota alliance at the beginning of 2024. This also might be a race in which reliance on track history becomes a major indicator of success on Sunday afternoon.
Jones is very good at Bristol and boasts four top 5s in eight starts when piloting a Toyota. He also has decent track position by starting 15th.
Watch out for "That Jones Boy" today.
Picks: Erik Jones to Win (+9000 at FanDuel), Top 5 (+1000 at DraftKings), Top 10 (+285 at DraftKings)
Bubba Wallace – Top Toyota (+1400)
Cody Goggin – Motorsports Contributor at Action Network
Ryan Blaney may have been the car to watch during practice and qualifying, but his friend Bubba Wallace looked fast himself.
Group A did have an advantage over Group B in the practice session on Saturday following Ty Gibbs’ incident. This discrepancy is obvious from the lap-time differences between the two groups.
However, Wallace was fast even compared to his peers in Group A. Wallace ranked second in five-lap average, third in 10-lap average, and second in 15-lap average before trailing off a little around the 20-25 lap average mark. Bristol obviously will have a lot of laps in a run, so they will want to get this dialed in, but this No. 23 car is very quick on the short run at least.
Bristol hasn’t been a track that Wallace has been successful at in his career with only one top 10 in nine starts, but I think that is why the books have him priced the way he is rather than adjusting to how fast he looked in practice and qualifying.
It looks like Toyota will have plenty of speed in this race, but I like Bubba at +1000 as the Top Toyota. It’s a long shot for obvious reasons but I believe that there's value at this number compared to where the rest of the Toyotas are priced. Wallace was either the fastest or second-fasted from his manufacturer for both practice and qualifying this week, and I think we could see him battling toward the front of the pack.
Pick: Bubba Wallace – Top Toyota (+1400 at Caesars)
Josh Berry – Group F Winner (+235)
Greg Matherne – Director, Sports Betting Content at Win The Race
Josh Berry's practice results look very lackluster. But he was in Group B, where the track conditions were much slower due to an early incident and poor cleanup. He followed up his "poor" practice with a second-place qualifying effort. So clearly his car has speed.
Berry’s track history is nothing to write home about. In three starts at Bristol, he had two wrecks and an eighth-place finish in the Xfinity Series. But this group isn't very strong.
AJ Allmendinger has won here in the Xfinity Series, but so far this year Kaulig has been very lackluster in the Cup Series.
Austin Dillon has an average finish of 17.7. Nemechek has done well in the Xfinity Series but has been very lackluster to start 2024 and was midpack in Group A practice.
At Bristol, 500 laps is a lot of time to make up track position, but the other three drivers in this group are buried in the pack. Nemechek is starting 26th, and Allmendinger and Dillon are starting 30th and 31st. This means none of them has particularly good pit-stall selection and will have lots of traffic to contend with on restarts.
All things considered, I’m willing to ride with the driver who qualified second and is driving an SHR car that seems to be much improved from 2023. I would bet Berry to win this group down to +210.
