For the second time this season, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series (MENCS) will visit Pocono Raceway, a unique 2.5-mile tri-oval racetrack.
Kyle Busch led 79 of 160 laps en route to a convincing win in the first race, so it's no surprise to see him as the early favorite in Vegas for Sunday's Gander RV 400 at +250 odds.
To make this weekend's NASCAR Props Challenge picks, we'll lean results from the MENCS race at Pocono last month, as well as historical data from The Tricky Triangle.
1. Will Sunday’s winner lead the most laps? Yes or No?
Kyle Busch led the most laps when winning at Pocono in June and considering the new aero package has created bigger advantages for cars out front, I'll say that happens again on Sunday.
Pick: Yes
2. O/U 15.5 stage points for Kyle Busch?
Just two drivers (Kyle Larson and William Byron) scored more than 15 stage points last month at Pocono.
In addition, because cars toward the front of the field can pit without losing a lap at Pocono, strategy often results in the fastest cars pitting immediately before the stage breaks (forgoing stage points) in order to gain track position after stage breaks.
Pick: Under
3. Which driver will finish higher? Clint Bowyer or Jimmie Johnson?
Bowyer was better than Johnson in every major statistical category in the most recent Pocono race, so this is an easy one for me.
Pick: Bowyer
4. O/U 135.5 MPH average race speed?
The race in June finished with an average speed of 134.718 mph, but also took eight cautions to get there. That's more cautions than the five previous MENCS races at Pocono, which leads me to believe we see a more green-flag type of race on Sunday, and therefore more pace.
Pick: Over
5. Toyota drivers have won the last four Pocono races. Will this streak continue? Yes or No?
With this question we're basically taking Joe Gibbs Racing (Ky. Busch, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin and Erik Jones) vs. the field. And surprisingly, betting odds put this at pretty close to a 50/50 proposition.
But, as always, if I don't see a clear edge either way, I can't go with four cars against the field.
Pick: No
6. O/U 3.5 drivers will score 10.5 stage points?
As I explained in question No. 2, varying pit strategies around stages due to different team agendas tends to shake up the running orders at the end of each stage.
With fast cars pitting early to ensure they restart at the front following stage breaks, I lean under.
Pick: Under
7. Kurt Busch leads all active drivers with 14 top-five finishes at Pocono. Does he finish in the top five on Sunday?
There are 10 drivers with better odds to win Sunday's race than Busch (+2500), which makes it very tough to predict Kurt scoring a top-five finish.
Answer: No
8. O/U 50.5 race points for Richard Childress Racing?
Richard Childress Racing (RCR) drivers Austin Dillon and Daniel Hemric scored 27 race points in June, but that was solely due to Dillon's accident which earned him a grand total of one point.
Still, Hemric's 13th-place finish was his third-best finishing position of the season, so expecting that again on Sunday is too much of a stretch. RCR should get close, but I think it falls short.
Pick: Under
9. Will the race winner hold the lead with 15 laps to go? Yes or No?
Kyle Busch led the final 21 laps in June, and considering I'm expecting to see fewer cautions on Sunday than in the previous Pocono race, I think the leader with 15 to go hangs on for the win.
Pick: Yes
10. O/U 45.5 race points for Martin Truex Jr.?
Brad Keselowski was the only driver to score more than 45 race points in June, making it really tough to go over here.
Truex should be really fast and contend for the win, but expecting that kind of performance is too drastic for me.
Pick: Under
