Talladega Superspeedway is so popular among NASCAR fans because the racing can be both exciting and unpredictable, with eventual winners often still up in the air until the first car officially crosses the finish line.
But even with the randomness caused by pack racing, superspeedway winners still tend to come from the bigger teams.
However, the unpredictability does result in more surprise top-10 finishers than at most other race tracks, which is why I'm looking at prop-betting opportunities instead of outright winners from those toward the bottom of the Geico 500 (3 p.m. ET on Monday, FOX) odds board.
Here is the longshot driver that I'm betting to score a top-10 finish Sunday at Talladega.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@PJWalsh24) for any additional bets I make for the Geico 500.
NASCAR at Talladega Odds, Betting Picks
Odds as of Sunday at 7 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where you can get a $200 sign-up bonus.
Corey LaJoie (+500) for a Top-10 Finish
Just as Aric Almirola's superspeedway stats caught my attention when determining my Geico 500 outright bets, LaJoie's Talladega and Daytona numbers jumped off the page as well.
Here are LaJoie's last four finishes at the two superspeedways: eighth, seventh, sixth and 11th.
The driver of the No. 32 Ford for Go Fas Racing doesn't race his way to the front and dice it up with the leaders for 500 miles, but he's quite adept at running his own race and taking advantage of the eventual attrition that comes with "The Big One."
For the record, I'm not predicting nor "calling" a top-10 finish for LaJoie. In fact, I think it's unlikely.
With that said, the data suggests it's more likely than the 16.7% probability that his 5-1 odds imply, making this prop worth betting.
