After at stop a Bristol Motor Speedway for Wednesday's NASCAR All-Star Race, the Cup Series is back at a smooth 1.5-mile track for the second straight points-paying event.
There are many similarities between Kentucky Speedway, which hosted last weekend's event, and Texas Motor Speedway, which will host Sunday's O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 (3 p.m. ET, NBCSN).
As mentioned above, the tracks are similar in length and have been repaved recently, producing a smooth surface that results in very little tire wear. As a result, Goodyear will be bringing a tire combination that is new to Texas, but is the same combo run at Kentucky last weekend and at Las Vegas in February.
By combining results from those two races, historical performance at Texas and track position, we should be able to nail down some outright value for the O'Reilly Auto Part 500.
Follow me on Twitter (@PJWalsh24) for any additional bets I make for Sunday's race at Texas.
NASCAR at Texas Odds, Betting Picks
Odds as of 9 a.m. ET on Saturday
Martin Truex Jr. (+1000)
These days I have love/hate relationships with Hawaiian pizza, seltzers and betting on Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR).
Even with Denny Hamlin tied with Kevin Harvick for the Cup Series lead in wins (four), I just cannot seem to figure JGR out.
From the Martinsville debacle to Hamlin's miserable run at Kentucky last weekend, the JGR cars continue to baffle me from a betting perspective.
Still, I'm nervously willing to back Truex at Texas at this price.
Truex seemed to have the race at Kentucky won before being derailed by late cautions, which is even more impressive considering the No. 19 Toyota had to start at the rear of the field after two pre-race inspection failures.
That runner-up finish also afforded Truex a prime pit stall for the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500.
I'm not 100% sold on Truex here, but his upside at 10-1 odds is worth the gamble. With that said, my uncertainty also means there isn't a lot of wiggle room with that price, so I think it's key to shop and lock in the +1000 and I certainly wouldn't play him any shorter than 9-1.
[Bet now at DraftKings and get Truex 11-1 with a 10% profit boost!]
Ryan Blaney (+1100)
Trust me, I'm just as sick about betting on Blaney as you are at this point, but the value is still too good to ignore.
Last week at Kentucky, Blaney had the second-best driver rating, ran the second-most fast laps and had the best average running position in a race he could have easily won.
And as I noted last week, Blaney was leading when a caution came out with just two laps to go at Las Vegas before his crew chief Todd Gordon elected to bring the No. 12 Ford down pit road. Seven cars stayed on track, basically ending Blaney's chance at a win.
On this tire combination at similar racetracks, Blaney could very easily be two for two. At 11-1, I'm willing to take the plunge (again).
Aric Almirola (+2600)
Across both races at Vegas and Kentucky this season, Almirola owns the fifth-best driver rating, but more importantly ranks first in laps led and fourth in fast laps.
Additionally, Aric was extremely fast at Texas last season, tying for the second-best average finish with the third-best driver rating.
And the icing on the cake, Almirola's qualifying draw luck continued by securing the pole for the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500.
Frankly, I see no reason not to back Aric at 26-1, but I wouldn't go any shorter than 20-1.
