NASCAR's loaded weekend at Pocono Raceway includes the Pocono Green 225 on Sunday (12:30 p.m. ET, FS1), which will run before the Cup Series' Pocono 350 at 4 p.m.
At just 225 miles (90 laps), this race will be shorter than the 250 miles the XFINITY Series has run since the series started racing at Pocono in 2016.
As a result, starting position will be key for Sunday's race, and I'll be combining this with last year's performance at Pocono to determine my bets for the Pocono Green 225.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@PJWalsh24) for any bets I add before the start of today's race.
NASCAR XFINITY Series at Pocono Odds, Betting Picks
Odds as of Sunday at 7 a.m. ET and via BetMGM. Get an INSTANT $500 deposit match at BetMGM today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Justin Allgaier (+700) to Win at Pocono
Allgaier has led the second-most laps in the XFINITY Series this season, but has just four top-10 finishes in 11 races to show for it.
This tells us that he's had plenty of speed to contend for wins, but has run into trouble late in races. As I've always said, we can't predict finishes when betting on NASCAR, but we can predict speed, and Justin has had plenty of it.
In fact, Allgaier had the second-best driver rating and led the second-most laps in this race last season, trailing just Cole Custer in both categories — a driver who graduated to the Cup series.
I can make an argument that Allgaier should be the betting favorite for Sunday's Pocono Green 225, which is why I'm happy to get him anywhere at 7-1 or better.
Riley Herbst (+1400) to Finish Top 3
While Herbst has never run an XFINITY Series race at Pocono, it was his best track in the ARCA Menards Series, including five top-five finishes and a win in five races.
Herbst also drives for powerhouse Joe Gibbs Racing, so his car will have plenty of speed at a race track that fits his driving style.
Like we saw in Saturday's Cup Series race, strategy will ultimately decide which drivers are running up front as the laps wind down, but at 14-1, Herbst is very much worth a bet to contend for a top-three finish.
Ryan Sieg (+2000) to Finish Top 3
Because Pocono Raceway is so big, drivers toward the front portion of the field can pit under green without losing a lap, which opens the door for many different strategy plays.
With this in mind, I'm looking for longshot drivers in good equipment with the ability to produce top-10 speed, then use strategy to steal a podium finish.
Sieg has been plenty fast this season, but has run into back luck that has prevented him from scoring as many good finishes as he should have and fits perfectly into the mold of a driver who can keep his car up front, then get off-sequence from the cars in front of him and gamble for a top-three finish.
Is a top-three finish from Sieg likely? Not at all. But at 20-1 odds, we just have to believe there's better than a 4.8% chance that he will, which is enough value for me.
