NASCAR heads to Sin City for the first intermediate track race of the year at the 1.5-mile Las Vegas Motor Speedway oval: the Pennzoil 400.
The 1.5-mile tracks are where the mix of horsepower, aerodynamics and driver talent mesh perfectly, which is why they're among the most common track type that the series races. That also means we have plenty of past data to look at, not only at Las Vegas, but at similar 1.5-mile tracks with Kansas Speedway being the best comparable track to Vegas.
Using those two tracks there's a driver that stands out among his peers as undervalued, especially in one particular market.
NASCAR Cup Series Pennzoil 400 Best Bet
What if I told you the fastest Ford driver, as measured by my FLAGS metric, in both Las Vegas races was priced as the fourth favorite?
That's exactly the case here with Chris Buescher, who ranked fourth and eighth overall in FLAGS in the first and second Vegas races. So, while he wasn't among the top three overall drivers, he was ranked as the highest Ford driver in both instances, including ahead of Team Penske's Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano, as well as Buescher's own teammate (and car owner) Brad Keselowski. All of those drivers have shorter odds than Buescher to be the top-finishing Ford driver.
Yes, Buescher's finishing results at both Vegas races were not as the top Ford. In the first Vegas race, his race only lasted 26 laps when a loose wheel came off his car and ended his day prematurely. However, in those 26 laps, he had an average percentile rank of 80.5% among 15 usable green flag laps with only one lap slower than the 65th percentile. And that's despite driving with just two fresh tires after a lap-11 pit stop, whereas most of the top running cars took four fresh Goodyears.
In the second Vegas race, Buescher finished 10th, only losing out to race winner Logano for top honors among the blue ovals, and that's only because Logano was able to stretch his fuel and eliminate a pit stop to win the race.
Let's not forget at Vegas' most similar track, Kansas, that Buescher nearly won the race, losing by 0.001 seconds to Kyle Larson (a Chevy). That set the all-time NASCAR record for the closest finish. So, Buescher actually finished as Top Ford in one of the four Vegas and Kansas races last year.
Add in a second-best Ford in the second Kansas race, and Buescher was a top-two Ford finisher in three of the four relevant races while crashing out while running as the fastest Ford in the other due to a pit crew mistake.
As of Wednesday evening, DraftKings is hanging +800, so go grab that ASAP.
The Bet: Chris Buescher Top Ford (+800 at DraftKings) | Bet to: +600
