The road to the NBA Finals has winded down to two teams as the Celtics and Mavericks meet for the final portion of the 2023-24 NBA season. After leading the league with the best record, the Celtics have faced questions of whether or not their path to the Finals has been enough to prove that they're exactly who they say that they are.
Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and the Mavericks await as a team that will push the Celtics to the limit more than any other team has done throughout the postseason. Now the next biggest question that may arise is: Will the C's know how rise to the occasion to handle a western conference team that comes with a totally different energy that they're used from eastern conference opponents?
From series previews, predictions, and best bets; our experts give provide another slice of the cake with series-long bets that you would want to keep your eyes on when it comes to certain aspects of this must-see matchup. And hey, as we watch this wild ride unfold, we should get the answers that we are all ready to receive.
Let's get straight to what our experts have in mind for the 2024 NBA Finals.
PJ Washington to Score More Points than Jrue Holiday (+130)
This bet is worth snooping around for as it’s not widely available. What makes it a best bet for me, is we can justify the look based on past performance, and on future projection. PJ Washington played only one game against Boston as a Maverick, but he scored 17 points in that outing. In two games against Dallas, Jrue Holiday scored 11 and 17 points, but the 17-point outing came without Kristaps Porzingis–a notable factor if we look at the on/off splits at pbpstats.com. Holiday sees a dip in some key metrics when he plays with the Latvian bigman in the lineup. His usage goes down by 3.2 percent, he sees a five percent decrease in 3-point attempt rate, and a two percent dip in shot quality. With Porzingis ready to go for Game 1, we should see a noticeable drop in Holiday’s scoring production.
If we look at more recent history, this is still mispriced. In the 2024 playoffs, Washington is averaging more points per game (+.9) and on higher volume (+1.4 field goal attempts). He’s playing -1.3 fewer minutes, but even still his usage is 16.4 compared to Holiday’s 14.1. With all the attention on Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, that leaves Washington as the Mavericks third option offensively. And while the Celtics do a good job of taking away corner 3s–a beloved source of offense for Washington–we won’t see enough scoring from Holiday to warrant the +130 price and I’d play PJ in this head-to-head scoring matchup down to -110.
Kyrie Irving Over 4.6 Assists Per Game This Series (-115)
Wrote about this in a Kyrie Irving focused piece and whether or not it’s worth betting on revenge this series.
The scoring may be hard to come by, at least at times, due to the defensive pressure we’re expecting the Celtics to deploy via Derrick White, in particular, but others as well on switches.
I think Irving will have a couple of quality scoring games, but he could have multiple duds too, so that could be all over the place, and it’s hard to lean over. But I think, with that pressure from Boston, Irving will be forced into a playmaker role, which he has excelled at in other playoff spurts, and it’s how his hand was forced against Oklahoma City. Dallas was able to survive, and Irving averaged 6.2 dimes per game that series. Against the Clippers, he was at 4.6 and last series against Minnesota, he was at 4.7.
I like his over in this series.
One or More NBA Finals Games to Reach Overtime (+190)
This is more of a sprinkle.
Both teams played close games last series. The Celtics saw overtime once against the Pacers and won their last two games by three points each. The Mavericks beat the Wolves by three, one and nine before losing by five and whooping their ass in Game 5.
If we think this is a long series — and I do think it goes at least six — then I’ll take a short bet on us getting an overtime game. To me, they are each other’s toughest match-up in the playoffs so far. Dallas, in particular, has had eight playoff games determined by five points or less out of the 17 they’ve played. Well, we should get more this series.
And honestly, it's just a fun ass bet to root for.
Also, shoutout to Maltman for this: 28 NBA Finals series have had a game go to to overtime, but 10 of the 19 that went seven games did, and nine of the 30 that went six games.
So yeah, why not?
Derrick White o2.7 3pg (-110), Average 3+ 3s Per Game (+155)
Derrick White Series 3s Leader (+500)
By Joe Dellera
White is underpriced to lead the series in 3s. He's listed at +500 at bet365. White is averaging 3.4 3s per game on 8.4 attempts, which is tied with Luka for the most in this series.
While White takes about one fewer 3 per game when playing alongside Porzingis, his efficiency remains elite, as he shot nearly 40% from deep during the regular season and is over 40 (40.7%) during these playoffs.
I'll also grab White over 2.7 3s per game (-110, DraftKings) and to average three 3s in the Finals (+155, DraftKings). He averaged 2.7 during the regular season on 6.8 attempts, compared to 3.4 on 8.4 attempts during the playoffs.
Check out my Player Props Forecast for more bets like this.
Jayson Tatum To Have Over 5.5 Threes in Any Game This Series (+400)
By Maltman
Jayson Tatum has not been great in the playoffs, but this number is simply too long for a great three point shooter against a team that is going to let him shoot threes. From a scheme perspective, the Mavericks will probably go under a lot of picks set by Boston’s centers, giving Tatum a chance to pull up off the dribble.
From an EV perspective, for this bet to at least be positive, he needs to have a 4% chance to hit 6+ threes in any game this series. The fair line for him to hit game 1 is higher than this (almost 5%), his rate during the regular season was higher (8%), and his rate over the last 4 playoffs has been higher (5%). In fact, FanDuel and BetMGM have a similar prop, but for 7+ threes, with lines of +400 and +450 respectively.
Ultimately, this line should be closer to +300, and Tatum has a great chance of getting there during any game this series. This is a bet on Tatum having one great game, and with a series that is looking likely to go long, I bet he gets it done at least one time. I would bet it down to +375 for a small sprinkle (.25u).
Celtics Take Game 1 and The Series (-130)
By Joe Dellera
Boston is a historically great team based on all of the advanced metrics and is a top 10 team all time in SRS.
Home favorites in Game 1 of the Finals are 31-9 and the winners have converted the series win 24 times.
Boston has cruised through the Playoffs while Dallas has had to battle at every step of the way. While there’s the thought that iron sharpens iron, this has given Boston the ability to come into this series in great health and rest for some of their key veterans.
The Celtics are 6.5 point favorites in Game 1 and they should be able to take care of business here against a Mavericks team that outside of Kyrie Irving, does not have much Finals experience. While it is the regular season, when these teams matched up back in March, Boston blew Dallas’ doors off in a 138-110 with both teams at essentially full health. While a blowout like that would be a surprise, it shows Boston’s ability to matchup well with the Mavericks.
I’ll grab Boston to win Game 1 and then convert on the series as well.
BEST BETS
- Favorite Series Bet: Celtics to win but not sweep, see the series preview for details.
- Favorite Series Prop: Kyrie Irving u24.1ppg. Check out more from my X-Factors article.
- Favorite Series Long Shot: Jayson Tatum double-double every game +1600, see series preview.
- Jayson Tatum Over 5.5 Assists Per Game (-113 – FanDuel)
- Jayson Tatum Assist Leader (+1200 – DraftKings)
- Jayson Tatum Over 5.5 Assist in Game 1 (-106 – FanDuel)
I really like Tatum’s assist and rebound props in this series, but feel the assist lines have more value right now. With the emergence of Porzingis back into the lineup, as going against a team with patient big rim protectors, the Celtics will play so much 5 out basketball. It will be space, drive, kick and shoot. I promise Tatum is going to have a very high volume of assist opportunities, and cashing will be a make or miss situation for his shooters. I like the Over in game 1 the most, because the low vig and quick turnover, and a home game! I would play that for 60% of the risk, play the series average for 30%, and the ladder of series leader for 10%. If the Celtics stay hot and the Mavs are cold, then Tatum could eclipse Luka for leader. It is unlikely, because of Luka’s lob prowess. So don’t get too exposed. The line is +1200 at DK and +950 at FD, so perhaps some value to still grab.
Kyrie Irving to Have More Assists Than Derrick White (+125)
As with the Jrue/PJ head-to-head prop, I want to make sure the logic is sound projecting forward, with historical evidence to back up the play as well, and this one checks the boxes. In this case, I’m projecting a tough series for Kyrie from a scoring perspective. The Celtics have a lot of defenders to throw at Irving—they’re better equipped for stopping Irving than Luka—and as a result they might opt to let Luka beat them, but cut off the water on the rest of the Mavericks, starting with Kyrie first and foremost. If that’s the case, expect them to blitz Irving and force the ball out of his hands and into the hands of other Mavericks players. If I’m wrong and they stick to one-on-one coverage of Irving, White, Holiday and Brown are more than capable of giving him scoring trouble and I still like him to lean more towards facilitating.
I think we see the opposite with Derrick White, who should be the benefactor of open looks as a result of ball pressure on Tatum and Brown (I’m on over 2.5 series 3s per game for White series 3-point leader at 5:1). I expect less playmaking from White than we’ve seen thus far in the playoffs. But even if I’m wrong and he stands pat with his assist rate, he’s just not getting as many opportunities as Irving. White is averaging 4.6 assists per game in the playoffs on 6.9 potential assists, while Kyrie averages 5.2 dimes on 9.7 potentials. Kyrie also averages more minutes than White (+5.1) and has a higher usage (+5.3) and should be the favorite for those reasons. Take Irving down to -120.
