The college baseball postseason has finally arrived, and while baseball conference tournaments don't have the lore of other sports, this is the time to do your scouting for Omaha.
Motivation plays a big factor in these tournaments, as many top teams have a good idea of their seeding in the field of 64. However, plenty of teams need to improve their RPI and can do so with just a win or two.
With the stage set, let's examine our best bets for the first day of conference tournament action.
College Baseball Best Bets
Kansas State -135 vs. Kansas
10 a.m. ET · ESPN+
We get a nice rivalry game here to begin the Big 12 Tournament, and it's clear that the Wildcats enter this matchup as the more motivated club.
Kansas State came into this season with upside and a very potent lineup, but it was unable to put it all together because it couldn't get solid pitching when the offense scored and vice versa.
However, the Wildcats are due for a good amount of positive regression on the mound, as their team SIERA of 3.59 is significantly lower than their team ERA of 5.47.
Josh Wintroub will get the start, and he's a leading candidate for more success. His 6.39 ERA doesn't tell the whole story.
On the other side, Kansas impressed mightily this season. Rock Chalk proved they can play between the lines, going 29-21 on the year with a lineup that produced much more than expected.
Kansas is bolstered by two great arms at the top of their rotation, but we won't see either of them today.
Instead, lefty Evan Shaw will take the mound. Shaw must be given credit, as he was excellent this year as a swingman, but his length in this outing is in question.
The Jayhawks' staff is due to regress with their team xFIP sitting over a run higher than their ERA.
Two x-factors could add to the Wildcats' regression trends in this matchup. First is the running game. K-State stole 118 bags on the season, leading the Big 12.
Lastly, they have the best closer in the country. Tyson Neighbors was a second-team All-Big 12 selection despite missing a chunk of the season with an injury. If the Wildcats have the lead late, it's tough seeing them drop this one.
Back the K-State in this opening matchup.
Vanderbilt -140 vs. Florida
5:30 p.m. ET · SEC Network
These are two teams that could really use a win in Hoover this week.
The Commodores enter with an RPI of 27, and the Gators are just ahead of them at 24. However, that rank of 24 is questionable given that the Gators went 26-26 this season, which is a major disappointment considering their lofty preseason expectations.
Florida's biggest issue this season was its pitching. Aside from Jac Caglianone on Sundays, the Gators couldn't find consistency in their rotation, which will be their downfall again today.
The Gators will hand the ball to Pierce Coppola, who's had a rough go since joining the rotation about a month ago. Coppola comes in with a 9.28 ERA in five starts.
An even bigger issue for Florida is that if Coppola struggles again, it won't have anyone to put out the fire. The Gators have a team ERA of 6.28, and their FIP isn't even a half-run lower.
As for the Commodores, they're taking this opening matchup seriously and turning to their Friday night guy, Bryce Cunningham. Cunningham has electric stuff, entering with a .215 BAA and a 27.8% strikeout rate.
However, his unsightly home-road splits put a damper on his season. Cunningham struggled mightily away from home, but he still found success in his lone neutral-site outing.
Overall, Vandy has a significant edge on the hill today, and its bats should get going. The 'Dores also have a solid history in Hoover.
Cal -150 vs. Washington
10 p.m. ET · Pac-12 Network
Like many games this week, the starting pitchers in this one are unknown. However, the superior side is clear.
Cal enters the Pac-12 Tournament on fire. It's won nine of its last 11 games, three of which came against Washington this past weekend.
While Cal is superior in all facets, the Golden Bears' lineup will be the key to locking up their fourth consecutive victory over Washington in as many games.
The Bears boast a wRC+ of 106 this season and a team ISO of .192. Compare that to Washington, which had a team wRC+ of 82 and an ISO of .146. You see why I'm so bullish on the Golden Bears.
It also helps that Cal has the edge on the hill. While the starters are unknown, Cal's staff held a respectable 4.86 team ERA this season. Meanwhile, the Huskies' team ERA this season comes in at 5.66, and their FIP sits at 6.08.
Back the Golden Bears to finish your card with a bang.
