2024 NCAA Baseball Tournament Odds & Picks
NCAA Baseball Regionals have arrived, signaling the beginning of a three-week frenzy culminating in a national championship.
All 64 teams were announced on Monday to the delight of a number of bubble teams.
While the first six Super Regional seeds were a lock, the remaining two were granted to Georgia and Florida State. Last year's Omaha darling, Oral Roberts, will also make another postseason appearance this year in Norman.
The format of the first Regional weekend consists of 16 pods of four teams. A double-elimination "tournament" will take place until one team remains.
The winners from this weekend's games will advance to the Super Regional round, where the Sweet 16 will play a best-of-three series. Those eight winning teams are sent to Omaha to compete for the national title.
There's sure to be plenty of SEC teams moving on over the next several weeks, as the conference has filled nine of the last 12 spots in the championship round since 2017.
There's no shortage of betting angles to attack in all 16 Regionals. Here are a few notes that could help make a profitable weekend:
- Park Factors will play a role in terms of totals. The Knoxville and Charlottesville Regionals should feature plenty of runs for over tickets, while the scoring could be sluggish in Santa Barbara and College Station.
- The No. 1 overall seed has not won a national title since 1999. The No. 1 overall seed also hasn't played in the championship series since 2009. Tennessee carries the burden of the top overall seed for the second time in three years.
- Pay attention to the seeding in the losers' bracket, as the most profitable wagers have come from blindly playing the top seed. Here's a look at Day 2 seeding records in the losers' bracket since 2017:
- 2-Seed vs. 4-Seed: 35-5 (87%)
- 1-Seed vs. 4-Seed: 12-1 (92%)
- 1-Seed vs. 3-Seed: 9-1 (82%)
This article will preview all 16 Regional hosts and their three visiting teams. The focus will be on selecting the best bet, whether it's a Regional winner, a team to make the College World Series or a single-game wager.
But first, let's take a look at the opening odds for all 16 Regionals:
Knoxville Regional
1
Tennessee Volunteers (1)
2
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
3
Indiana Hoosiers
4
Northern Kentucky Norse
Tennessee has been a powerhouse all season, as the pitching staff has not missed a beat despite Chase Burns' transfer to Wake Forest.
Friday night starter AJ Causey was more comfortable out of the bullpen, giving Chris Stamos a handful of starts to end the season.
At the plate, junior Christian Moore crushed 28 home runs, giving this roster a top-25 ranking in nearly every category. The Volunteers suffered only three losses at home in SEC play the entire year.
C-Mo cleared for liftoff!
Absolute 🚀
📺 https://t.co/Jt6cQrCA8N (SECN)#GBO // #OTH // #BeatVandypic.twitter.com/GDTOOIPOwC
— Tennessee Baseball (@Vol_Baseball) May 25, 2024
Now, head coach Tony Vitello looks to win a fourth consecutive regional.
Southern Miss has made the College World Series just once — a 2009 trip that new head coach Christian Ostrander is looking to replicate.
The Golden Eagles are on a collision course from last year's Hattiesburg Super Regional, where the Volunteers took two out of three to advance to Omaha.
The Sun Belt champions are red-hot, winning 14 of their last 15 games dating back to April 30.
In a head-to-head meeting, Tennessee's Drew Beam projects as a -220 favorite over USM's Billy Oldham if the top pitchers from each staff were to square off.
Indiana will be happy to not see Nebraska upon arriving in Knoxville. The Hoosiers are 9-2 in their last 11 games against teams not named Nebraska but 1-4 against the Cornhuskers over the past three weeks.
Head coach Jeff Mercer had consistent defensive issues with his squad. With a losing record in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games this season, a Regional victory is unlikely for the Hoosiers.
Tennessee and Southern Miss will have projected lines around -230 to -280 depending on the starting pitchers.
The Volunteers are expected to use the combination of Stamos and Causey in Game 1, saving Beam for Game 2. Those two against Oldham or Niko Mazza of Southern Miss combined with Indiana's pitching staff create true odds of 80% for Tennessee to win the Regional.
The series price on the Volunteers is good up through -400.
Pick: Tennessee -350 or Better
Lexington Regional
1
Kentucky Wildcats (2)
2
Indiana State Sycamores
3
Illinois Fighting Illini
4
Western Michigan Broncos
There's no better team in the nation on paper than Kentucky. The Wildcats dominated Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams while generating one of the best road records in the nation.
Head coach Nick Mingione has a team that could be dangerous in Omaha, featuring best-in-class defense and pitching. Trey Pooser, Mason Moore and Dominic Niman have been a solid starting staff in SEC play.
If there's a concern for Kentucky in this Regional, it's the instant pop the 2- and 3-seeds bring to the table.
Indiana State just missed on a second consecutive selection as a Regional host, instead making the short trip to Lexington.
There's not much lacking from the Sycamores' resume, which includes nonconference victories over tournament teams such as UConn, Southern Miss and its first-round opponent, Illinois.
Ace Jacob Spencer did see the Illini lineup in that victory, firing two innings while allowing just a single hit.
The Big Ten race was a game of hot potato, but Illinois held on for the regular-season title before a quick exit from the conference tournament.
Head coach Dan Hartleb brings a squad with defense and slugging, with the power being supplied by infielder Ryan Moerman. The pitching has been suspect all season, ranking below No. 4 seed Western Michigan in this Regional.
There's some value fading Kentucky here.
All pitching combinations for the Wildcats against Illinois project around -140, while the head-to-head with Indiana State comes in at nearly -110 with every combination of Sycamore pitchers.
With Kentucky's true odds of 56% to take the Regional, the Wildcats' number is oversold after -130. Both of the numbers for Illinois and Indiana State have value, as the proper prices are Sycamores +140 and Illinois +310.
With Indiana State expected to be a -140 favorite in the opener against the Fighting Illini, look for a hedge spot in the winners' bracket against Kentucky on Day 2.
Pick: Indiana State +275 or Better
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College Station Regional
1
Texas A&M Aggies (3)
2
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
3
Texas Longhorns
4
Grambling Tigers
The Aggies will come up for air after a highly-competitive SEC schedule that ended just a game shy of winning the West Division.
Texas A&M will have one of the easier opening games against Grambling before facing off against arch-rival Texas or Louisiana, the Sun Belt champion.
The program will look to win its 11th regional in its 38th appearance.
Staff ace Ryan Prager has been a bet-on arm all season, as the sophomore posted 106 strikeouts in 79 innings pitched. The lineup can generate power as quickly as anyone in the nation, with the heart of the lineup producing three 20-home run hitters.
Louisiana battled a deep Sun Belt conference, taking the regular-season conference title before taking two quick losses in the SBC Tournament. The Ragin' Cajuns posted a 14-5 record on the road, showing no signs of drop-off when traveling away from Lafayette.
The name to know on the pitching staff is Sun Belt Pitcher of the Year LP Langevin, who's technically a closer who has thrown 100 strikeouts in 60 innings. Head coach Matt Deggs will use Langevin at any time, as the freshman has started three games with 22 total appearances.
Gritty win for #25 Louisiana who comes back to beat Southern Miss 3-2. Kyle DeBarge was the extent of the offense as he hit the game-winning, 3-run HR in the bottom of the 8th.
Andrew Hermann struck out 7 and allowed 2 ER across 8 IP, while LP Langevin slammed the door with a… pic.twitter.com/eaA5apAQu3
— Peter Flaherty III (@PeterGFlaherty) April 27, 2024
Texas will have a bus ride to College Station, with the Longhorns set to resume yearly play against the Aggies in the SEC next season.
Head coach David Pierce was infringing on bubble territory but got hot down the stretch to end the season with series victories over TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and UCF.
The key player for the Longhorns to advance may be third starter Lebarron Johnson Jr. The junior entered the season as the staff ace before struggling against LSU and Texas Tech. Johnson has not been good on the road of late, allowing 22 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings throughout his last five road appearances.
Prager will be a minimum -330 favorite over any other pitcher in this Regional, giving Texas A&M plenty of value if the ace is held out for the winner between Louisiana and Texas.
The Aggies project between -190 and -350 in all other pitching combinations, generating a 75% chance to win the Regional.
The true value of Texas A&M at home in Blue Bell Park is closer to -300 compared to the market opener.
Pick: Texas A&M -180 or Better
Chapel Hill Regional
1
North Carolina Tar Heels (4)
2
LSU Tigers
3
Wofford Terriers
4
Long Island Sharks
The Chapel Hill Regional will draw plenty of eyeballs — not because of host North Carolina but because of reigning national champions LSU coming to town.
The Tar Heels dominated ACC conference play, wrapping up the regular-season title before the last weekend series.
Head coach Scott Forbes entered the season with question marks around the pitching staff, filling those holes with true freshmen. Friday night starter and true freshman Jason DeCaro has lived up to the hype leading this staff, while a pair of sophomores in Matthew Matthijs and Dalton Pence have anchored the bullpen.
The Tar Heels' resume is immaculate, featuring victories over East Carolina and UNC Wilmington while racking up 23 wins in the ACC.
The buzz in Chapel Hill will come from the traveling fan base from Baton Rouge, as LSU enters the regional off a heater in the SEC Tournament.
The roster turnover from the 2023 national title team took a toll in March before Gage Jump ascended to the anchor role with Alabama transfer Luke Holman eclipsing all numbers from a season ago.
LSU's best attribute might not be the lineup anchored by Tommy White but rather a pitching staff that's versatile enough to throw anyone at any time.
Nate Ackenhausen, Thatcher Hurd and Javen Coleman bring Omaha experience, while a healthy Christian Little would bolster the staff in a projected showdown against North Carolina.
Wofford may be a complete unknown coming into Chapel Hill, playing just four games in the Quad I range with only a single victory. The Terriers were buried in a March game against Georgia.
Zac Cowan or Camden Wicker will take the mound against a red-hot Tigers lineup, as head coach J.J. Edwards must get more from an offense that didn't produce a single 20-home run hitter.
Every combination of DeCaro and Shea Sprague for UNC versus Jump and Holman for LSU produces a projection within 10 cents of -110. Each team resides over 47% for a series price, with Wofford and LIU having astronomical odds of winning the Regional.
Neither LSU nor North Carolina should have a price greater than -120 for a Regional ticket. Look to take the dog in the futures market with a potential hedge spot in Game 2.
Pick: LSU +105 or Better
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Fayetteville Regional
1
Arkansas Razorbacks (5)
2
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
3
Kansas State Wildcats
4
Southeast Missouri Redhawks
The selection committee might have thrown the Razorbacks a bone after they showed considerable issues in the month of May.
Arkansas was expected to have the best pitching staff in the nation — a billing that ace Hagen Smith lived up to all season. Secondary starters Brady Tygart and Mason Molina were ripped down the stretch, leading to series losses against Texas A&M, Kentucky and Alabama.
The Hogs were rattled in their last home series against Mississippi State, needing a sluggish offense to win the series. The Razorbacks continue to post some of the lowest offensive numbers in BaseRuns, runs per game, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
Baum-Walker Stadium is a pitcher's park, but Tygart and Molina have to get back to form if the Hogs want to return to Omaha.
Brady Tygart has a 7.05 ERA in his last 4 starts against South Carolina, Florida, Kentucky, and Mississippi State
— Noah Bieniek (@NoahB77_) May 15, 2024
Louisiana Tech had a chance to shake up the Conference USA standings, holding tiebreakers from a series victory over Dallas Baptist. However, the Bulldogs didn't catch the Patriots until the Conference USA Championship game, where Dallas Baptist put up two touchdowns and a field goal.
Head coach Lane Burroughs threw every quality pitcher on staff, but they gave up 17 runs in the loss. Louisiana Tech will have a sour taste in its mouth and a 3-6 Quad I record as it heads up Interstate 49 to Fayetteville.
Kansas State was a team with long preseason odds to win it all, but it slid into the postseason ahead of TCU and Charleston.
The Wildcats were left out in 2023 but now have an opportunity to cash in for 27-year head coach Pete Hughes.
The most beneficial move of the season was getting more innings for closer Jackson Wentworth. The sophomore was taken out of that role, which generated six saves, and was moved into the Day 2 starting role. Wentworth has been electric, racking up 107 strikeouts in just 75 innings pitched this season.
No other pitcher can contend with Smith when he takes the mound for the Razorbacks, generating prices from -350 to -600 depending on the opponent.
Where Fayetteville gets interesting is the projected prices against Molina and Tygart, as the anchors for Louisiana Tech and Kansas State project at -110 against Arkansas' starters not named Smith.
The Razorbacks have a series price of 67%, making anything above -210 to win the Regional overpriced. The great news for Arkansas is that none of these teams possess the offensive firepower to create and maintain a lead.
Look for Arkansas to claw this one out, but look for a lower-sized bet at any price above -210.
Pick: Arkansas -250 or Better
Clemson Regional
1
Clemson Tigers (6)
2
Vanderbilt Commodores
3
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
4
High Point Panthers
Clemson was a preseason darling in the betting market, living up to those expectations with a Super Regional seed. Like last season, the Tigers must beat a 2-seed from the SEC if they want to advance to the Round of 16.
Head coach Erik Bakich's roster suffered injuries throughout the season but now has plenty of options at starting pitcher with the return of sophomore Tristan Smith.
Fielding percentage is the biggest issue for Clemson, and it proved to be a factor in a nonconference loss to Georgia and a recent sweep by Wake Forest.
Vanderbilt entered the SEC Tournament with an outside chance of being left out of Regionals. The Commodores caught fire in Hoover, eventually getting knocked out by Tennessee in the semifinals.
Head coach Tim Corbin has won 10 Regionals and two national titles in his 22 years in Nashville. His most recent national title came in 2019, coaching against Bakich's former Michigan team.
The biggest hurdle for the Commodores comes in playing away from Hawkins Field, as they've collected a 4-12 record on the road.
Plenty of noise came from the selection committee's decision to include Coastal Carolina, the seventh-seeded team from the Sun Belt. The Chanticleers struggled down the stretch, losing nine straight games, including sweeps to Troy and Southern Miss.
Coastal took the opening game of the conference tournament before drubbings by Southern Miss and Appalachian State. Head coach Gary Gilmore was bound for retirement but will have to put those plans on hold for at least another week.
Vanderbilt and Clemson are on a collision course, as every pitching matchup is projected at -110 with the exception of one player. Freshman Aidan Knaak is the best starter on the Tigers' staff, generating a -160 moneyline against any pitcher the Commodores send to the mound.
Clemson's starting pitching plan is unknown, but Knaak must roll through the Vandy Boys at some point.
The true series price for Clemson is 56% — approximately -130. Depending on the price in the market, look to take Clemson for the Regional or hold for the single game Knaak is pitching.
Pick: Clemson -110 or Better
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Athens Regional
1
Georgia Bulldogs (7)
2
UNC Wilmington Seahawks
3
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
4
Army Black Knights
Georgia slips into the Super Regional seeding, guaranteeing two straight weekends at Foley Field — if it makes it out of this pod.
This was a successful first year for head coach Wes Johnson, as the pitching staff came together in early April to dominate SEC play.
Kolten Smith progressed from the bullpen to Friday night starter throughout the season, last dominating Florida with 12 strikeouts and two earned runs in eight innings of work.
The star of the Bulldogs bandwagon is sophomore first baseman Charlie Condon, who leads all Division I baseball players with 35 home runs.
.@BaseballUGA's Charlie Condon (https://t.co/Z3s2EpgF39's No. 4 Draft prospect) hits his THIRD HR of the day and that ball was crushed 💥
(📹: @ESPN) pic.twitter.com/e5MiUNmyWp
— MLB (@MLB) March 23, 2024
UNC Wilmington may not possess the offense of the Regional host, but it does bring the best pitching staff to Athens, from starter RJ Sales to closer Luke Craig.
The Seahawks' RPI was diluted thanks to CAA play, ultimately beating Charleston twice to capture the tournament crown. Head coach Randy Hood's team also picked up victories in nonconference play over NC State and Wake Forest.
Georgia Tech slides into the 3-seed with an RPI boost thanks to series wins over NC State, Virginia and Duke. The Yellow Jackets were a quick two-and-out in the ACC Tournament, as the pitching staff brings nearly the worst metrics of any team in terms of ERA and WHIP.
Head coach Danny Hall did play Georgia earlier this season, losing both games during the first weekend of March.
Georgia projects between -160 and -280 in pitching combinations against UNC Wilmington and Georgia Tech. A 65% series price correlates to true odds of -190 for the Bulldogs.
UNCW will not have the offense to keep up with the Dawgs, while the Yellow Jackets' bullpen has been on the struggle bus all season.
Pick: Georgia -150 or Better
Tallahassee Regional
1
Florida State Seminoles (8)
2
Alabama Crimson Tide
3
UCF Knights
4
Stetson Hatters
The ascension of Florida State baseball coincided with the rise of starter Jamie Arnold. The sophomore started the season at the back of the rotation before dominating competition, giving up more than three earned runs just once in 15 games started.
The Seminoles have fielded one of the better power offenses, along with a top-10 defense.
Outfielder James Gibbs III leads the team in home runs and RBIs heading into the Tallahassee regional at Dick Howser Stadium.
Alabama started off SEC play with series victories over Tennessee and South Carolina. Although the Crimson Tide lost their last series of the season to Auburn, previous series victories over LSU and Arkansas carried Rob Vaughn's team.
Gage Miller is the best offensive player for the Tide, leading the team in the triple crown categories.
Following the same path as the Tide is UCF, producing a red-hot stint in Big 12 play before cooling toward the end of the season. The Knights took consecutive series from Oklahoma State, Kansas, Texas Tech and Kansas State in early April but lost late-season series against Texas and Cincinnati, struggling with one of the lowest runs-per-game margins in the country.
The pitching combination projections all depend on who toes the rubber for Florida State. With Arnold on the mound, the Seminoles are a minimum -240 against any opponent, while FSU's Carson Dorsey is -160 in all matchups against Alabama pitchers.
A series price of 64% translates to true odds closer to -190 for Florida State, giving plenty of room for this price to run.
Pick: Florida State -130 or Better
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Norman Regional
1
Oklahoma Sooners (9)
2
Duke Blue Devils
3
UConn Huskies
4
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
Oklahoma owned the Big 12 down the stretch, ending the season with 11 victories in 13 games.
The Sooners opened the season with victories over Tennessee and Nebraska in Arlington, both key elements in generating a top-15 RPI.
Sam Houston transfer Braden Davis leads the pitching staff with 107 strikeouts on 85 2/3 innings pitched.
Although these games will be played in Norman, look out for the Sooners if they advance and travel to Tallahassee for the Supers because they own a 14-5 road record this season.
The loss of Jonathan Santucci to injury combined with series losses to North Carolina and Georgia Tech may have turbo-charged Duke in the ACC Tournament. The Blue Devils dominated in Charlotte, winning four straight to capture the conference tournament.
Santucci has been held out for a few weeks with a rib injury but expects to be back and available in Norman.
UConn and Oral Roberts may drum up some memories saying that these teams can compete for the Norman Regional.
The Huskies are making their 25th Regional appearance after winning the College World Series five times in program history.
Oral Roberts had a magical run to Omaha a season ago, but the Golden Eagles now own an RPI near dead last in Division I. Nothing in the road record, strength of schedule or recent analytics suggest either team can compete with top seeds in this Regional.
No matter which combination is projected, the Blue Devils are favored from -130 to -170 when Santucci, Ryan Higgins, Andrew Healy and Kyle Johnson start.
The Sooners being underdogs in their own Regional is not a missed price by oddsmakers with Duke's probability to take the group at 57%. Look to take the Blue Devils through -130 in Regional betting.
Pick: Duke -110 or Better
Raleigh Regional
1
NC State Wolfpack (10)
2
South Carolina Gamecocks
3
James Madison Dukes
4
Bryant Bulldogs
NC State is thankful for the home Regional seed after compiling a 7-12 record on the road.
The Wolfpack played one of the toughest schedules in the nation between the ACC and midweek games with East Carolina, UNC Wilmington and Coastal Carolina.
Series victories over North Carolina, Clemson and Duke all but locked up Doak Field as a Regional site for head coach Elliott Avent and Company.
Drawing an SEC school close to its campus could be a disaster, as South Carolina fans are expected to migrate to Raleigh for the weekend. The Gamecocks had a productive SEC Tournament, beating both Kentucky and Arkansas to lock in their placement as a 2-seed in Regionals.
South Carolina brings a veteran pitching staff led by junior Eli Jones and a fifth-year senior closer Garrett Gainey.
James Madison consistently fell on the bubble throughout the last month of the season. The selection committee passed over Charleston for the Dukes, who are making their ninth Regional appearance.
A February victory at Arkansas may have been the key difference in James Madison reaching the postseason, but the Dukes have still posted a record of just 9-15 on the road.
With nearly every pitching and defensive metric residing outside the top 100, this will be an uphill climb for the Dukes.
Every South Carolina pitching combination projects as a marginal favorite over NC State. Jones, Roman Kimball and Dylan Eskew should all be -135 or higher against Wolfpack ace Sam Highfill.
The numbers get progressively worse against their other starting candidates. A true series price of 58% for South Carolina equates to -140 for the Regional.
Pick: South Carolina -110 or Better
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Stillwater Regional
1
Oklahoma State Cowboys (11)
2
Nebraska Cornhuskers
3
Florida Gators
4
Niagara Purple Eagles
Oklahoma State got on a heater to end the season, winning nine of its last 10 and capturing the Big 12 Tournament championship.
The Pokes have relied on a pitching staff that ranks 11th or better in ERA and strikeout-to-walk ratio. Starters Brian Holiday and Sam Garcia have both eclipsed 100 strikeouts, while Penn State transfer stopper Tommy Molsky averages nearly two strikeouts an inning.
The Cowboys lost only two home games during conference play this season.
Nebraska cemented its claim as the best team in the Big Ten with a conference tournament victory.
Brett Sears is the workhorse pitcher on the staff, collecting three straight quality starts to end the regular season. The biggest issue for the Cornhuskers has been a lack of offense, averaging the fewest runs per game of any team in Stillwater.
There may be no greater divide in college baseball conversation than the inclusion of Florida. The Gators finished with a 28-27 overall record with 13 SEC wins and the No. 1 strength of schedule.
Head coach Kevin O'Sullivan had plenty of holes to fill in the lineup and pitching staff after a run to the championship series a year ago.
The starting rotation has been populated with true freshmen, but the one constant has been the production of Jac Caglianone. The Sunday starter also managed to lead the team in runs, home runs, RBI and innings pitched.
Standing O for Jac Caglianone 🐊#GoGators // 📺 SECN pic.twitter.com/M8sEcARSpd
— Florida Gators Baseball (@GatorsBB) May 12, 2024
The pitching numbers have been so horrific from a season-long perspective for Florida that the Gators should be underdogs of +150 in most games. Oklahoma State projects as a minimum -140 favorite with Garcia or Holiday on the mound against any other pitcher, including Nebraska's Sears.
The Pokes' true odds to take their own Regional sit at 56%, with a series price target of -130.
Pick: Oklahoma State -110 or Better
Charlottesville Regional
1
Virginia Cavaliers (12)
2
Mississippi State Bulldogs
3
St. John's Red Storm
4
Penn Quakers
The star of the Charlottesville Regional will be Davenport Field at Disharoon Park. No other Regional has a higher number in terms of Park Factors than Virginia, indicating there could be a healthy amount of runs in the forecast.
The Cavaliers have the upper hand in the power department, as no other team sits inside the top 100 in home runs per game or slugging percentage. Sophomore outfielder Harrison Didawick leads the team in the triple crown categories, recently hitting a home run in five straight games.
Outside of starter Evan Blanco, Virginia has struggled as a pitching staff, including both the starters and bullpen.
Mississippi State had a positive trip to Hoover for the SEC Tournament, securing a 2-seed with wins over Ole Miss and Texas A&M. The Bulldogs would go on to lose to Tennessee and Vanderbilt by a single run, proving the 2021 national champions can compete with any team in the nation.
Khal Stephen leads a staff that's top-15 nationally in ERA and WHIP. In addition to Stephen, Day 2 ambidextrous starter Jurrangelo Cijntje hasn't given up more than three earned runs since March 17.
Jurrangelo Cijntje, BHP.
Lefty & Righty Breaking Balls. pic.twitter.com/I2G0SGmqj8
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 19, 2024
St. John's won three straight games to take home the Big East Tournament championship, raising its RPI ranking to 51st.
The Red Storm struggled in nonconference play with recent losses to Fairleigh Dickinson, Fairfield and Rutgers. With one of the softest strength of schedules in the field, St. John's managed a ranking of just 238th in home runs per game.
Considering Disharoon Park is a launch pad for home runs, the winner of this Regional must be a team that can create instant offense.
Virginia will be favored in head-to-head games against Mississippi State. Blanco and Joe Savino project as minimum -130 favorites against Stephen and Cijntje.
The biggest difference between the two is the rate of scoring, an element that's needed in Charlottesville.
The Bulldogs rank outside the top 100 in most power categories, giving the Hoos a 54% chance and -130 price to win their home Regional.
Pick: Virginia +100 or Better
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Tucson Regional
1
Arizona Wildcats (13)
2
Dallas Baptist Patriots
3
West Virginia Mountaineers
4
Grand Canyon Antelopes
Arizona will play the role of Regional host despite an RPI of 31 and a 3-9 record in Quad I games.
The Wildcats fought for the regular-season conference title up until the last weekend of the regular season against Oregon State, only to win the Pac-12 Tournament without facing the Beavers.
Head coach Chip Hale's team was lackluster out of conference, losing a series to San Diego as well as single games to tournament teams such as Alabama. The Cats also suffered regular-season losses to two teams in this Regional in Dallas Baptist and Grand Canyon.
The Patriots smoked the Conference USA Tournament with a run differential of +17 through four games. Starter Ryan Johnson is one of the best punch-out artists to toe the rubber, producing 147 strikeouts on 100 innings pitched.
Dallas Baptist was unfazed on the road, posting a 14-7 record away from Horner Ballpark.
One hidden area where the Patriots can generate scoring is on the base paths, as Dallas Baptist fields four players with double-digit stolen bases.
West Virginia caught fire in early April with a number of Big 12 series wins. However, the Mountaineers have struggled in May with a series loss to Cincinnati and a quick two-game exit from the conference tournament.
The loss of reliever David Hagaman is sure to be felt, as depth is crucial in this Regional. Hagaman was the best option out of the bullpen until he suffered a mid-April injury.
Handicapping a 4-seed is generally not part of the equation when it comes to Regionals, but 2023 produced an Oral Roberts team that stretched an underdog role into an Omaha appearance. Grand Canyon is the most dangerous 4-seed in the tournament, holding two victories over Regional host Arizona.
Catcher Tyler Wilson has been lethal at the plate, leading the team in all triple-crown categories.
The Antelopes project at -120 in the opening game if Grant Richardson is matched up with Arizona's Jackson Kent. Dallas Baptist's combination of Johnson and James Ellwanger projects as -130 to -230 favorites over Kent or Clark Candiotti of Arizona.
True odds for the Wildcats reside at 21%, giving plenty of value to the other teams in this region. The Patriots will be heavy favorites of -130 to -260 against the top two staff choices from Grand Canyon and West Virginia.
Pick: Dallas Baptist +140 or Better
Santa Barbara Regional
1
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (14)
2
San Diego Toreros
3
Oregon Ducks
4
Fresno State Bulldogs
With an RPI that finished 13th in Division I, UC Santa Barbara will play the role of Regional host nearly a decade after making the program's only trip to Omaha.
The Gauchos will enter Regionals for the 15th time, looking to recapture the 2016 magic that brought their only Regional and Super Regional victory.
The weakness of the Pac-12 contributed to UC Santa Barbara's position as the home team in Caesar Uyesaka Stadium.
Put ‘em in the ring 🥊
9 punch outs for Ryan Gallagher with another 1-2-3 inning to keep Bakersfield off the board.B5 | Gauchos 1 – Roadrunners 0 #GoChospic.twitter.com/1ozWdD0KUd
— UC Santa Barbara Baseball (@UCSB_Baseball) May 11, 2024
The Gauchos have a loaded pitching staff, from anchor Ryan Gallagher to former ace-turned-closer Matt Ager. The team will go only as far as the pitching, a common denominator with the other teams traveling via the Pacific Coast Highway.
San Diego also slipped inside the RPI top 20, flashing similar numbers from the staff with one of the best defensive rankings in Division I.
The Toreros made it count against tough competition, taking a series over Arizona with other wins over Texas and Dallas Baptist. San Diego enters the Regional having lost just one game since April 14.
The Power 5 team in the pod is Oregon, which has been relegated to the third seed. The Ducks were average against Quad I and Quad II teams, going 12-7 in road games this season. Although the RPI dipped outside the top 50, victories over Oklahoma and Grand Canyon contributed to a postseason appearance.
Starters RJ Gordon and Kevin Seitter enter with FIPs above 6, while closer Logan Mercado has an xFIP over 5.
The player to watch on offense is first baseman Jacob Walsh, who leads the team in home runs with 120 total bases on the season.
Gallagher draws the heaviest price of any pitcher in this region, projecting UC Santa Barbara as a favorite of -135 or better against the top options from San Diego and Oregon.
Mike Gutierrez is the second option for the Gauchos, also projecting as a small favorite over all options that the Toreros and Ducks can present. Look to take the Regional host through -115.
Pick: UC Santa Barbara -115 or Better
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Corvallis Regional
1
Oregon State Beavers (15)
2
UC Irvine Anteaters
3
Nicholls Colonels
4
Tulane Green Wave
What would the opening weekend of Regionals be without the backdrop of Goss Stadium at Coleman Field? Oregon State will make its 23rd postseason appearance, looking for its fourth national championship.
Compared to seasons past, the Beavers struggled more than expected against Pac-12 foes. Luckily for OSU, it'll be playing in Corvallis after racking up a losing record on the road.
Oregon State lost only two Pac-12 games at home, both in Game 3 Sunday action against Stanford and Oregon.
Ace Aiden May has not given up more than two earned runs since April 19, while Pac-12 Player of the Year Travis Bazzana is sure to have an impact after mashing 26 home runs on the season.
Travis Bazzana is unconscious right now. After hitting 3 HRs yesterday, he has 2 more today to up his season total 26. This one was an absolute TANK out to RF. Cannot emphasize enough how beautiful of an operation this is. So many things he is "elite" at. pic.twitter.com/u25EDDwbCk
— Peter Flaherty III (@PeterGFlaherty) May 6, 2024
UC Irvine did everything possible to ramp up its strength of schedule with a huge road RPI number to potentially host a Regional. The Anteaters were outdone by UC Santa Barbara in Big West play but come to Corvallis with an offense that gets on base at a high clip.
Head coach Ben Orloff's team secured victories over other postseason teams such as Tulane and San Diego, relying on the arm of fifth-year senior Nick Pinto in opening games.
Scoring was down in the Big West, but that didn't stop the Anteaters from averaging more than 10 runs per game on the season.
Nicholls has a similar offense to its opening-round counterpart, as the lineup ranks top-35 in on-base percentage. Despite an RPI of 61, the Colonels collected just a single victory in the Quad I and Quad II range, beating Southern Miss in extra innings all the way back in February.
Staff ace Jacob Mayers has been solid in recent starts, allowing three earned runs or fewer in his previous six starts.
The biggest key to this region is when UC Irvine elects to throw Pinto, who's projected to be a small favorite over both May and Jacob Katz from the Beavers' staff. That number flips to the side of Oregon State if the Anteaters elect to throw Trevor Hansen or another pitcher on the staff.
Considering this should be a coin-flip and depending on when Pinto pitches, the true odds for Oregon State and UC Irvine are at -110 for both clubs.
Pick: UC Irvine +200 or Better
Greenville Regional
1
East Carolina Pirates (16)
2
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
3
VCU Rams
4
Evansville Purple Aces
If there's a team with decades of postseason frustration, it's the Regional host in East Carolina. The Pirates have played in 34 Regionals, advancing to the Super Regionals seven times.
East Carolina has never played in Omaha in program history.
The big news for the Pirates is ace starter Trey Yesavage's injury during the AAC Tournament. The junior is healthy and targeting a return on Saturday, potentially against a red-hot team from the ACC.
Wake Forest has spent the last few weeks on extreme highs and lows seen only in the crypto market.
The Demon Deacons swept Super Regional seed Clemson in mid-May, only to be swept by NC State in the final regular-season series.
Head coach Tom Walter advanced his club to the ACC semifinals over Super Regional seed North Carolina before being bounced by Florida State.
David Falco is expected to get the start in the opener, while Chase Burns projects as a flat -110 in a head-to-head matching against ECU's Yesavage.
The Deacs' hopes may come down to the up-and-down nature of third starter Josh Hartle, who has given up at least five earned runs in four of his last six starts.
VCU got hot before the Atlantic 10 Tournament and now represents the conference despite poor analytics in the power department. The Rams have won nine of their past 10 games but struggled against upper-tier competition this season with a 5-8 combined record in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games.
Sadly, a two-game set with East Carolina was canceled due to weather back in March.
The showdown between Wake Forest and East Carolina will be electric, as Burns and Yesavage project at -110 if pitted against each other.
The coin-flip ends with pitchers not named Burns or Yesavage, as Pirates starter Ethan Norby projects as a -150 favorite over Falco and Hartle from Wake.
There's a heavy appetite for the Demon Deacons in early ticket action, so the best price on East Carolina may come before first pitch. With the Pirates favored in every matchup except for a Yesavage vs. Burns battle, get the best number before first pitch and hedge when Yesavage takes the mound.
Pick: East Carolina +160 or Better
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