More than 300 Division 1 programs will take the field for the 2024 college baseball season in less than a month.
That field will be narrowed to 64 teams to compete in Regionals, as the NCAA Tournament selection committee will use a new process in determining the postseason teams. The Kevin Pauga Index (KPI) will be implemented to run alongside RPI to populate quadrants, similar to NET rankings in college hoops.
Last week, Action Network presented four long-shot candidates to compete for the national title. This piece will look at our first-ever college baseball power rankings to determine where value may reside in a team's quest to make the final eight in Omaha.
Action Network's college baseball power rankings derive from three key areas needed to advance in the postseason: starting pitching depth, bullpen and fielding percentage.
The power rankings will be updated bi-weekly during the season, as injury information concerning college pitchers is fluid.
While the goal is to obtain a 20-1 ticket or better on teams in the top 10, pitching depth and defense will drive the futures value.
Here's a list of our first-ever college baseball top 10 and the starting pitcher names to know when wagering on each team this season.
1
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
College World Series Odds: +700
The Demon Deacons made it to the College World Series as the top overall seed a season ago but ran into the buzzsaw of LSU pitching in Bracket 2, ultimately falling short of the championship series.
Keep your eyes out on the polls heading into the postseason, as the No. 1 overall seed has not won the national title since 1999.
Wake Forest takes the top spot thanks to elite starting pitching, led by junior Josh Hartle. The southpaw is an auto-wager this season after striking out 140 batters in just 102.1 innings last season.
2
Arkansas Razorbacks
College World Series Odds: +1000
This will be the deepest pitching staff for head coach Dave Van Horn in his 30th season with the Razorbacks.
The transfer portal and freshman recruiting restocked the talent in Fayetteville, starting with former Friday night starter Mason Molina from Texas Tech.
The stud in the stable is southpaw Hagen Smith, who mixed in 11 starts and seven relief appearances in 2023. The junior racked up 109 strikeouts in 71.2 innings, giving Arkansas a true ace on Friday nights.
Four straight Ks for 33 🔥 pic.twitter.com/SBm0zhvTNI
— Arkansas Baseball (@RazorbackBSB) June 5, 2023
3
TCU Horned Frogs
College World Series Odds: +2700
The Horned Frogs are not ranked this high in other preseason polls, but the pitching depth is abundant for a team that was knocked out of Omaha by Florida last June.
Kole Klecker returns to his Friday night role after 17 starts a season ago, but Wichita State transfer Payton Tolle could steal the show on Saturdays. The southpaw struck out at least nine batters in six different starts for the Shockers.
4
Vanderbilt Commodores
College World Series Odds: +1500
Both TCU and Vanderbilt grade out as the best defensive teams in the top 10, but the depth of quality arms puts the Commodores at No. 4.
Carter Holton is expected to take starting pitching duties on Friday night after accumulating 153 strikeouts over his last 130 innings. Not many college pitchers have an arsenal of four different pitches, but Holton leads the way on one of the deepest staffs in Division 1.
5
LSU Tigers
College World Series Odds: +750
Long gone is the arm of Paul Skenes, who left Omaha as one of the most dominant pitchers of all time.
The Tigers have plenty of questions on defense, but the staff should provide stability as starters are determined.
The bullpen ranks as one of the best in the SEC, as electric freshman Cam Johnson is eased into low-risk innings. Thatcher Hurd will slide from Saturday to the Friday night role after punching out 84 hitters over 63.1 innings last season.
6
Texas A&M Aggies
College World Series Odds: +1500
This will be one of the best hitting teams in the SEC while the bullpen and defense play a secondary role.
The Aggies were knocked out of the Stanford Super Regional, as a young pitching staff was rocked at the Sunken Diamond.
Sophomore Justin Lamkin returns after 10 starts a season ago, punching out 74 batters in 59.1 innings.
The Aggies' only chance to move up in the power rankings will require a step up in production from closer Zane Badmaev and right-handed transfer starter Tanner Jones.
7
Florida Gators
College World Series Odds: +900
There's plenty to love about a Gators roster that features Jac Caglianone. The junior is the Shohei Ohtani of the college ranks, jacking 33 home runs in addition to posting 87 strikeouts from 18 starts on the mound.
Caglianone is the best two-way player in the SEC, but the remaining pitching staff is a question mark with the losses of Brandon Sproat and Hurston Waldrep.
Jac Caglianone, 99mph Bohemian Rhapsody Fastball. ⚰️🪦
Mama, he just killed a man. pic.twitter.com/5cYa3mPxrb
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 26, 2023
8
Clemson Tigers
College World Series Odds: +2000
After opening as high as 40-1 at some shops, the Tigers have been the early team to bet from a futures perspective.
Head coach Erik Bakich will look to secure another national seed heading into the postseason. Transfer Matthew Marchal from Wofford will provide depth in a rotation that includes Austin Gordon and Tristan Smith.
Gordon recorded 16 starts in 2023 and will presumably be the Friday night starter, but an xFIP above his 4.28 ERA must improve if Clemson wants to win the national title.
9
Tennessee Volunteers
College World Series Odds: +2000
No team entered the college baseball season with as much hype as the Volunteers two seasons ago. While that team didn't make a postseason push, last year's team made Omaha and played the knockout role against Stanford.
With the transfer of Chase Burns to Wake Forest, the Volunteers' pitching staff will turn to Drew Beam on Friday nights. The junior posted 88 strikeouts in 17 games started last season.
Look for head coach Tony Vitello to depend on the firepower of the batting lineup to win games, as the remaining members of Tennessee's staff fight for the Saturday starter and bullpen roles.
10
Oregon State Beavers
College World Series Odds: +2200
The Beavers are the best team on the West Coast in the final season of the Pac-12 as we know it. Oregon State has quality players in all facets of the game, from defense and hitting to base running.
While no dominant ace returns to the staff, keep an eye on sophomore Aiden Jimenez.
Stuck in middle relief a season ago, the freshman started his first game of the season in the Baton Rouge Regional. Jimenez struck out six in a win before eventual national champion LSU advanced.
