The first day of super regionals didn't go to plan.
Oral Roberts made history by blowing an eight-run lead, and we came about three feet from Virginia cashing in on a walk-off homer.
However, that's just set us up for a big comeback today, as we have all eight sites in action.
Virginia -185 vs. Duke
12 p.m. ET · ESPN2/ESPN+
We're going right back to the well here with the Virginia Cavaliers.
Yesterday's result gives us no reason to fade them today, as their edge on the mound grows. However, their loss yesterday has opened up a much better angle that we can capitalize on for the remainder of the series.
We know winning the first game of super regionals is critical, as 79% of teams that win Game 1 have gone on to advance. The books have more confidence in the Hoos', though.
Their series price is a great way to back them moving forward.
This afternoon, they're -185 favorites with Connelly Early on the bump. He should give his club every opportunity to even the series, as the Cavaliers' lineup will face Duke's Alex Gow.
Gow has been solid this season, but he's due to regress, and that's not what you want when facing this Virginia lineup.
Assuming Virginia takes Game 2 today, it'll get to throw its Friday night guy, Brian Edgington, in Game 3 tomorrow. The Cavs' edge on the mound will be even larger, and they're projected to be around -200 favorites.
So, rather than paying heavier prices to back Virginia game by game, take its series price at plus money.
Pick: Virginia to Win Series +140
LSU -270 vs. Kentucky & Tennessee -180 vs. Southern Miss
3 pm ET · ESPN & ESPNU
We have two of the top teams in the country playing at the same time this afternoon, and pairing them together is a great way to back them.
Starting in Baton Rouge, the Tigers are pitching their ace and the No. 1 pitcher in the country Paul Skenes. Skenes is coming off a legendary season, which he followed up with a dominant complete-game effort against Tulane in regionals.
There's no better pitcher to back than Skenes, but it also helps that he has one of the best lineups in the country supporting him. LSU is third in wRC+ and will face Kentucky's Travis Smith, who comes in with a 4.84 ERA and FIP of 5.80.
If Skenes toes the rubber — as expected — the Tigers should roll.
The perfect partner for the Tigers is the Tennessee Volunteers. The Vols come into this super regional on a roll, as they took down Clemson in regionals. And while they weren't selected to host this weekend, they hold a significant edge in Game 1.
Southern Miss has decided not to pitch its ace Tanner Hall in Game 1. Instead, Billy Oldham will get the ball, and he'll have to face a Tennessee lineup that's 17th in the country in wRC+.
On the other side, Southern Miss will have to contend with Andrew Lindsey and the Vols' pitching staff, which is the second-best in the country in terms of FIP and SIERA. Lindsey comes in with a 2.54 ERA and should shut down the Southern Miss lineup.
Take advantage of these two sizable mismatches by pairing them together at plus money.
