The NCAA Baseball Tournament is finally upon us, as the field of 64 is set. However, with the bracket revealed, each team's path to and through Omaha is now a tad more predictable.
With the first pitch of Regionals just days away, let's analyze the market to see which teams hold value to be in a dogpile come mid-June.
Virginia Cavaliers +2500
The Hoos are my favorite futures play entering the postseason. They're one of the most well-rounded teams in the country and led the nation in batting average while finishing fifth in the country in ERA.
We saw them flash their potential during the ACC Tournament, as they demolished Georgia Tech. Unfortunately for the Cavaliers, their conference tourney run was cut short after their ace struggled. But the season-long data shows that Connelly Early and the rest of the pitching staff will perform better going forward.
Looking at their path to Omaha, the Cavaliers are sizable favorites to make it out of their own regional and will likely face Coastal Carolina or Duke in the Super Regionals. It would be much more ideal for them to face Coastal Carolina, as they'll have a significant pitching advantage over them.
If they face the Blue Devils, their path will be a tad harder. Duke took the season series between the two teams in dominant fashion, but the Blue Devils did suffer a significant loss in the ACC Tournament when their ace sustained an arm injury.
Regardless, Virginia has the lineup to light up the scoreboard and a pitching staff that will feature four quality starting pitchers. Good pitching depth leads to deep runs to Omaha.
Pick: Virginia to Win the College World Series |
Tennessee Volunteers +2000
One year after being potentially the best college baseball team of all time, the Tennessee Volunteers are back.
However, while the Vols were shockingly upset in the Super Regionals last season, they now have fewer expectations as the 2-seed in the Clemson Regional.
Now, the Vols will likely have to get through the hottest team in the country in Clemson, but they have the talent and pitching to do so. Tennessee arguably has the best pitching staff in the country, as it finished fourth in the country in ERA and held the second-highest strikeout rate.
However, Tennessee is also a great offensive club, ranking 13th in wRC+ and fourth in ISO nationally.
I get that the Vols were 4-12 on the road, but they won't be at home in Omaha anyway. This team has more than enough pitching to make a very deep run and their potential matchup with Clemson will be exciting, but the Tigers are ultimately bound to cool off while the Vols could get hot and stay hot through the College World Series.
Pick: Tennessee to Win the College World Series |
Miami Hurricanes +5000
This price is far too high for the Miami Hurricanes. The ACC Tournament provided a prime example of the potential this team possesses.
Miami picked up three wins in the ACC Tournament, with two over Duke and the No. 1 team in the country in Wake Forest. However, that win against Wake Forest was tremendous as the Canes won that game with their pitching.
While it helps that they have a boatload of sluggers in their lineup, their pitching is being underrated, and it could carry them this postseason. They have an excellent trio of starters with Karson Ligon now healthy, along with the best closer in the country in Andrew Walters.
Shockingly, the Hurricanes are priced this high as the ninth overall seed in the tournament.
At this point, they have the most value on the board and should be a part of your portfolio, especially considering their pitching edge in a potential Super Regional matchup with Stanford.
Pick: Miami to Win the College World Series |
