The selection process to make the college baseball postseason is different than college basketball's NCAA Tournament.
In college baseball, winning the regular-season conference title gives a team an automatic berth to Regionals. Conference tournaments are still important from the standpoint of improving RPI and Quad 1 records, but they ultimately don't create an opportunity for an automatic bid.
The most interesting team in regard to the selection committee is Florida, a former top-five team that now owns a 22-21 regular-season record.
The Gators rank in the top 25 in the latest RPI thanks to the toughest strength of schedule in the nation. Florida will finish the regular season against three teams in the top 20 in Tennessee, Kentucky and Georgia.
The SEC Tournament will be a spot circled for head coach Kevin O'Sullivan, as the Gators could be the most dangerous Regional 3-seed in recent history.
The Sun Belt, meanwhile, has a long history of teams making noise during Regionals. The conference is on the rise thanks to new facilities, NIL investments and the transfer portal.
Louisiana has a three-game lead on Troy with three weekends remaining. The Trojans will play host after winning four consecutive series in Sun Belt play. The Ragin' Cajuns are 10-3 on the road this season, giving the series in Troy the weekend spotlight.
Here are notes on a few of the Top 25 movers after another weekend of college baseball.
Moving Up
- Tennessee (+750) has been in cruise control, winning six consecutive SEC series. The final stretch will be the toughest of the season with series in Gainesville against Florida and Nashville against Vanderbilt before hosting South Carolina. The Volunteers rank top-10 in nearly every hitting and pitching category, from slugging percentage to WHIP. Head coach Tony Vitello could find his club as the top overall national seed with a sweep of the remaining schedule.
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- UC Irvine (+7000) is in the driver's seat for the Big West regular-season title. The Anteaters hold the tiebreaker over UC Santa Barbara and will host Cal State Northridge in the last series of the season. Head coach Ben Orloff has depth in the lineup, which ranks third in on-base percentage and 23rd in doubles. Irvine profiles as a team that could be dangerous in Omaha, as slap hits are always successful in the spacious Charles Schwab Field.
- Oklahoma State (+9000) has the best path to a Big 12 title despite sitting a game behind Oklahoma. The Cowboys took the Bedlam series to kick off April, giving themselves the tiebreaker if needed. The Pokes will end the season on the road at Texas and host Texas Tech before closing it down at lowly Houston. Both the Sooners and Cowboys will have the RPI to make the postseason, but the winner will host a Regional.
Moving Down
- Coastal Carolina (+7000) has now lost six straight games, including a sweep at home by Troy. The Chanticleers failed to cover the run line in any game against the Trojans, with only staff ace Riley Eikhoff providing quality pitching. The Trojans scored 26 runs in the final two games, taking advantage of the launching pad at Vrooman Field. The pain might not be over for Coastal, which holds a 6-9 record on the road. The Chanticleers will travel to Southern Miss this upcoming weekend, and a series loss would close the door on their chances to win the Sun Belt.
How about them Trojans⁉️⚔️@TroyTrojansBSB swept the series against No. 13 Coastal Carolina, 15-3. #NCAABaseball x 🎥 @TroyTrojansBSB
pic.twitter.com/zb748F5wbk— NCAA Baseball (@NCAABaseball) April 29, 2024
- Kentucky (+2000) remains one of the highest-ranked teams in the nation, but consecutive series losses in the SEC may foretell the future. The Wildcats have lost at home to Tennessee and on the road at South Carolina, giving the Volunteers the keys to the East Division. Head coach Nick Mingione is struggling with a pitching staff that holds a 7.34 xFIP over 362 innings pitched.
Gamecocks shutout No. 4
No. 24 @GamecockBasebll won the series against No. 4 Kentucky, 10-0 in 7 innings. #NCAABaseball x 🎥 SECN+
pic.twitter.com/Uu5ZusSKb3— NCAA Baseball (@NCAABaseball) April 29, 2024
Three weekends remain in the regular season, with conference championships set to wrap up the weekend of May 24.
Memorial Day will bring the announcement of Regional and Super Regional seeds, as we begin to protect futures that have been taken throughout the season.
In our weekly projections, sides are based on a calculation of ERA, FIP and xFIP. The total is based on the same numbers, along with calculated BaseRuns and park factors.
You can use this data along with our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code to get the most value on college baseball this season.
Be sure to follow along for college baseball picks in the Action App. Here are the projections for games starting Thursday, May 2:
