North Carolina vs. Arkansas Odds
North Carolina vs. Arkansas Probable Pitchers & Projections
- Saturday: Connor Noland (Arkansas) vs. Max Carlson (North Carolina) | North Carolina -145 · Total: 11.6
- Sunday: Brandon Schaeffer (North Carolina) vs. Hagen Smith (Arkansas) | North Carolina -195 · Total 13.1
- Monday (if needed): Jaxon Wiggins (Arkansas) vs. Connor Bovair (North Carolina) | North Carolina -134 · Total 13.5
The Razorbacks lost their way down the stretch of the regular season, losing the final two series' to Vanderbilt and Alabama.
The bad run continued in the SEC Tournament, as they went two-and-out against Alabama. As the No. 2 seed in the Stillwater bracket, the Hogs slipped out of a spot as a Super Regional host.
Thanks to its defense, Arkansas found its way in a Regional that saw nearly 100 runs scored on Sunday alone.
Glove is major league ready for Big Game Bob @__robertmoore_@RazorbackBSB | @NCAABaseballpic.twitter.com/nlKdRrC1k4
— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) June 7, 2022
After winning the ACC Championship, the Tar Heels were the hottest team heading into Regional play. That ended abruptly in the winners’ bracket against VCU on Saturday, as the Rams limited a North Carolina offense with heavy pop to just three runs.
A slight scare from Georgia late and a thrashing of VCU's pitching Sunday night had the Heels ready for a third game against the Rams.
VCU pitcher Tyler Davis allowed four earned runs to North Carolina on Monday, enough for the pitching combination of Brandon Schaeffer and Gillian Gage to close out VCU.
Both Arkansas and North Carolina have been streaky at times offensively, as both are poor in on-base percentage but rank top-30 in home runs per game.
Arkansas has the clear defensive and pitching staff advantage against a North Carolina team that went 9-14 against RPI top-25 teams. The Hogs have a clear advantage specifically in the bullpen, as the starting staff advantage belongs to North Carolina.
Hagen Smith was the hero for Arkansas against Oklahoma State, but a FIP of 5.63 shows consistent issues with the freshman lefty’s command. Arkansas' projected Sunday starter, Jaxon Wiggins, also struggles with control of a fastball that touches triple digits.
A series prices is based on an estimated number of starter innings, team ERA, WHIP and offensive numbers, including runs per game and calculated base runs.
North Carolina plays out to a 66% chance of victory, equal to a betting line of -195 for the Heels. The number opened closer to a pick’em at DraftKings and took immediate Arkansas money.
Although Arkansas survived a run-scoring bonanza in the state of Oklahoma, stronger pitching from North Carolina awaits.
As projected favorites in every game, a North Carolina wager will have multiple hedge opportunities on the Razorbacks.
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Picks: North Carolina -115 (Play to -150)
