TrumpStore.com, the official destination for The Trump Organization's merch, posted "Trump 2028" merchandise for sale, prompting speculation about his intention to run for a third term in 2028. Kalshi, a prediction market that allows you to trade on politics, sports, and much more, posted a market about whether or not he'll be allowed to run, but traders give it just an 11% chance.
Kalshi itself isn't the one setting these prices — it's a prediction market where the money traded by users dictates the prices. You can trade a huge variety of markets at Kalshi related to sports, politics, the economy, and more.
The volume is low, with just more than $81,000 traded as of Thursday afternoon, and the price has fluctuated between 8% and 11% for the last few hours.
The 22nd amendment limits the number of times a President of the United States can serve to two terms. It was ratified in 1951.
The text reads: "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once. But this Article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President when this Article was proposed by the Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this Article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term."
It effectively caps the total possible of number of years a president can serve at 10. If the 22nd Amendment is repealed or if Supreme Court interprets the 22nd Amendment to allow Trump to be elected President more than twice before Jan 1, 2029, "yes" would settle as a win in this market. The Amendment doesn't make specific mention of nonconsecutive terms.
Trump joked in November after winning the election that he could run for a third term with the help of House Republicans, who mostly brushed it off as a joke.
“I suspect I won’t be running again, unless you do something,” Trump said. “Unless you say, ‘He’s so good, we have to just figure it out.’”
