Damian Lillard Injured: How His Achilles Strain Impacts Playoff Bets

Milwaukee Bucks point guard Damian Lillard has a strained Achilles based on new reporting from Jamal Collier of ESPN. According to Collier's report, Lillard was seen in a walking boot Saturday after the team's film session.

Lillard appeared to suffer an injury at the 2:31 mark in the first quarter of Friday's matchup against the Indiana Pacers. Lillard drove to the basket at Pascal Siakam, fell awkwardly to the floor, and immediately grabbed his knee upon landing.

The Bucks took Lillard to the locker room, but he eventually returned to the game and played 45 minutes in an overtime loss against the Pacers that put the Bucks in a 2-1 series hole.

After the game, Lillard told reporters that he twisted his knee on the initial fall, then aggravated the Achilles in the fourth quarter.

"Dame was really struggling," Bucks head coach Doc Rivers told Collier. "In the overtime, he said 'I’ll be the decoy. I just can’t go, as far as explosion.'"

This injury comes on the heels of Giannis Antetokounmpo's calf injury, which sidelined the former MVP for the past two weeks.

Rivers added that Antetokounmpo is working out Sunday, but the coach doesn't expect Antetokounmpo to be ready for Sunday's Game 4 matchup.

The impact on betting markets has been swift. The Pacers are -600 favorites at BetMGM to win the series outright at the time of writing. The Bucks opened as -350 favorites against the Pacers ahead of the series, but the line steadily moved toward the Pacers before Game 1. Entering Friday's Game 3, the Pacers were listed as -140 favorites to win the series and they moved to -500 before today's news about Lillard.

So how should Lillard's injury news impact betting futures in this series and beyond? Action Network analyst Brandon Anderson gives his thoughts and betting analysis below.

Brandon Anderson: How Lillard's Injury Impacts Playoff Bets

Well, this stinks. After struggling all year through injury and Bucks malaise, it looked like it was finally Dame Time in the playoffs. Lillard detonated in Game 1 with a 35-point first half on six 3s, then hit six more in Game 2 with a 26-point first half. The Bucks traded a haul for Damian Lillard this offseason and needed their second star more than ever with Giannis Antetokounmpo out, and he was showing up most in their hour of need.

Now, it’s hard to see either Lillard or Antetokounmpo playing again this season. Both look unlikely for Sunday, leaving Milwaukee badly shorthanded coming off an overtime game in which it emptied the tank and got two miracle Khris Middleton 3s but couldn’t quite get the steal.

All signs point to a Pacers win, with the spread ballooning to -9.5 with the Lillard news. At that point, with Milwaukee down 3–1 needing three straight wins each on one day of rest with both their stars injured (and Middelton not exactly healthy himself), it feels like the writing is on the wall and you play the long-term game.

This is a worst-case scenario for the Bucks. They went all-in on this season, and the core four of Antetokounmpo, Lillard, Middleton, and Brook Lopez are only getting older. This team also had a relatively disastrous regular season and badly needed to see how the squad would respond to head coach Doc Rivers in the playoffs. Now they have nothing but an easy excuse and a chance to run it back next year with an even older, more depleted roster.

I was big on the Pacers series and escalator, and this is obviously great news for Indiana. It’s also a chance for the Pacers to close out the series early and buy some needed rest for banged-up star Tyrese Haliburton with the Knicks-76ers series looking like it could be long, physical, and grueling.

That said, this also looks like a good spot to buy Knicks or Sixers futures. Indiana hasn’t been particularly impressive this series, often struggling to play Pacers ball as the Bucks slow the tempo down and force things into a half-court game, where Indiana has struggled mightily. Haliburton has not been able to create an advantage, with the Pacers far too often settling for hopeful 3s. The Pacers are bad defensively, terrible on the glass, and put opponents on the foul line far too often. That’s a disastrous formula against both the Knicks and the Sixers.

Regardless of who you like in that Knicks-76ers series, this is a great spot to buy long-term stock. Could New York or Philly come out of the East? Even getting to the Eastern Conference finals gives you an opportunity to hedge the other side. It’s a slight downtick for Boston futures, only because it’s now more likely the Celtics will have to face their toughest draw in the conference finals.

As for Bucks futures? It may already be too late.