Can you believe it’s only been a year since Taylor Swift showed up in Travis Kelce’s box at Arrowhead Stadium for a Chiefs–Bears game?
The coupling, which is still going strong, launched a media frenzy — one that sportsbooks quickly latched onto. DraftKings was perhaps the most prescient of the pack. Two days before the Chiefs-Bears game, as rumors swirled around Swift’s potential attendance, DraftKings offered bettors a “You Belong With Me” parlay, priced at +349, that required the Chiefs to win, Kelce to score a touchdown, a win from the Philadelphia Eagles and a touchdown from Philly running back D’Andre Swift.
The parlay fell one leg short of cashing after Swift (D’Andre, not Taylor), who had an otherwise tremendous game against Tampa Bay, failed to reach the end zone. But a DraftKings spokesperson told Sports Handle at the time that the sportsbook saw “strong engagement” with the wager.
So it went the following week. BetMGM saw seven times more volume on Kelce props for the Jets game than it did for the Bears tilt seven days prior, while at DraftKings, Kelce props accounted for twice the handle Sunday that they did in the first three weeks combined.
Over at FanDuel, Kelce-centric markets made up 20% of the total bets on the game and 14% of its handle. The last time Kelce played a regular season Sunday game in prime time before then — against the Chargers in November 2022 — the tight end’s markets comprised 13% of the bets and 8% of the handle for the game.
Kelce and Swift are still going strong as a couple, and the Chiefs are favored to become the first team in NFL history to win three straight Super Bowls.
But what about “the Swift effect” on Kelce and Chiefs props? How sustainable has that been?
Swift-Kelce Props Have Failed to Cash This Season
“The Taylor Swift effect is real,” Johnny Avello, director of sports operations for DraftKings, told Action Network earlier this week, thus confirming that what some insiders thought would be a passing fad has instead had considerable staying power.
Avello is an old-school bookmaker who’s made an impressive transition into the digital age, so anyone who’s ever conversed with him will get a kick out of him adding, “We have had a series of Swifty-inspired betting markets up on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Chiefs’ first two games and saw strong engagement among our audience, underscoring her influence. We’ll have more Taylor Swift-themed betting options available as the Chiefs take on the Falcons this Sunday night, and will continue to create additional content for our customers throughout the season.”
For Kansas City’s Week 1 game against Baltimore, DraftKings offered three Taylor-themed props. The first was the Swift Start, where Travis Kelce had to eclipse 22 receiving yards in the first quarter (+225). The second was the Feelin’ 22 — Chiefs to score 2+ TDs in the first half and 2+ TDs in the second half (+275) — and the third was Travis Kelce’s Good Luck Charm: Kelce to score 1+ TD and record 30+ receiving yards in each half (12-1).
While the Chiefs won, none of the Swift specials cashed. (Kelce finished with a very pedestrian three catches for 34 yards and no scores.) Nevertheless, KC-Baltimore was the most bet NFL game on DraftKings’ platform in Week 1, and the Chiefs were the fourth-most bet team. Meanwhile, Kelce was the most-bet tight end and seventh-most-bet player overall.
For Week 2 against the Bengals, DraftKings offered just one Swift special — the Red (Zone) (Taylor’s Special) — that required Kelce to score a touchdown in the first quarter (9-1). He failed to do so, finishing the game with a lone five-yard catch and no TDs, but the Chiefs managed to prevail anyway.
DraftKings reported that the KC-Cincy tilt was the second-most-bet game on the NFL slate, while the Chiefs were the second-most-bet team. As for Kelce, he was the most-bet tight end and the 10th-most-bet player overall.
Is It Over Now?
Will Kelce’s sluggish start finally put a damper on this phenomenon as the Chiefs head to Atlanta for Sunday Night Football against the Falcons?
On the one hand, by offering no less than eight Swift-centric props or parlays, DraftKings has never been as bullish on the gimmick, and two of those parlays — the “Two Is Better Than One” (Kelce 2+ TDs paired with a Chiefs win, priced at 10-1) and “Sparks Fly” (Kelce to record 55+ receiving yards and score at least a touchdown in a Chiefs win, priced at +750) — are specifically tailored toward Kelce breaking out of his mini-slump.
Then again, half of the eight props are tailored (Taylored?) toward Swift-Kelce naysayers, with the three-leg “Is It Over Now” parlay (11-1) banking on a Falcons win in which Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson scores at least two touchdowns and Kelce finishes with 49 receiving yards or less.
