2024 NFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen Nose Dives; Jayden Daniels, Sam Darnold Biggest Risers
Bills quarterback Josh Allen saw his short-lived lead atop the NFL MVP leaderboard dissipate after Buffalo was trampled by the Ravens on Sunday Night Football.
It was Allen's first game since Nov. 2021 in which he's failed to throw for or rush for a touchdown.
As a result, despite a so-so showing against the Chargers, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has retaken his preseason lead atop the MVP odds list.
It's a curious development considering how lackluster his season has been — he ranks just 13th in EPA/play + CPOE (expected points added per play + completion percentage over expected, the best arbiter in deciding the MVP) and has the third-most interceptions in the league.
His status atop the leaderboard is, frankly, the effect of winning, as rudimentary as that sounds.
MVP winners tend to be quarterbacks from No. 1 seeds — at most from No. 2 seeds. The Chiefs and Vikings are the only remaining undefeated teams. And voters love repeat winners — but not ones who go back-to-back. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson was last year's trophy holder.
In fact, here are the main six criteria in selecting the NFL MVP, courtesy of my colleague and data expert Brandon Anderson.
- The winner is very, very likely to be a quarterback.
- Voters love repeat winners, but not back-to-back.
- MVPs put up great numbers but limit turnovers.
- MVPs win a lot of games; they're usually No. 1 seeds in their conference.
- Preseason long shots have been the norm of late.
- EPA/play + CPOE is the best single MVP predictor.
But it's the biggest riser in Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels that's turning the most heads in this market.
He's already solidified a -150 lead for Offensive Rookie of the Year — the reigning Heisman Trophy winner is the one to beat there, now, not the preseason favorite, Bears quarterback Caleb Williams.
Daniels has seen his odds go from straight off the board before the season to +3000, tied for the eighth-best favorite on the odds board after an electric start in which he ranks No. 1 in EPA/play + CPOE amidst a revitalization of a once-dormant franchise.
Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold was the second-biggest riser of the week, and it's a product of winning, too. Darnold ranks No. 3 — behind Daniels and Allen — at EPA/play + CPOE and is leading an undefeated team with good individual numbers and limited turnovers.
His odds rose from +2500 to +1100 after beating down the Packers on Sunday.
