NBA Betting Trends: What History Says About a Timberwolves Series Comeback

The MinnesotaTimberwolves took their first step in making a potential comeback in the Western Conference finals by getting a win against the Dallas Mavericks in Game 4 after falling into a 0-3 hole. The Wolves head home as favorites in Game 5 but are still massive underdogs in the series.

We saw this exact scenario play out in the Eastern Conference finals in 2023 when the Boston Celtics fell into a three-game hole before storming back into the series. However, we still haven't seen a team complete the comeback.

Here's what history says about the Wolves' chances to extend the series.

The score of the Western Conference finals doesn't reflect how close these games have been — the point differential through four games is just eight points in favor of the Mavericks. The Wolves have had a lead in clutch time of every game in this series but still managed to lose the first three before picking up a win in Game 4 to stay alive.

The Timberwolves are between 4.5 and 5-point favorites at home for Game 5. If they close above 4.5, they would be the second-biggest favorite in a Game 5 after trailing 0-3. The Celtics were 8.5-point favorites last season in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Miami Heat, and the Orlando Magic were 4-point favorites against the Celtics in the 2010 Conference finals. Both teams covered the spread in that spot.

Biggest Game 5 favorite — after trailing 0-3, last 50 years

• 2023 Celtics (-8.5) vs. Heat — W, 110-97
• 2024 Wolves (-4.5) vs. Mavericks — ?
• 2010 Magic (-4) vs. Celtics — W, 113-92

Winning Game 5 is one thing, though. Winning the series, or even pushing the Mavs to seven games is a much tougher task historically. In the 155 series in which the team has fallen behind by three games in a series, only 11 teams have pushed the series to a Game 6. Only five teams have forced a Game 7. Entering Game 5, sportsbooks have the Timberwolves listed between +400 and +425 to win the series.

Like the Celtics last season, the Timberwolves will play Game 5 — and a potential Game 7 if things reach that point — in Minnesota. However, the Wolves are just 3-4 straight up at home in the playoffs, one of five teams (Suns, Pelicans, Clippers, Heat) with a losing record at home during this postseason, per Bet Labs.

If the Timberwolves pull off a win in Game 5 despite their poor play at home, it gets much more interesting. The Timberwolves are 6-2 straight up on the road in the playoffs this year (the Mavericks are also 6-2 on the road), which is tied for the best record in the postseason.

History isn't on the Wolves' side to do what 155 other teams couldn't do in 77 years. But given how close this series has been, it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that we'll have another game (or two) in this series.