NBA Finals Odds: How Rare Is Celtics Game 3 Underdog Line?

The Boston Celtics are currently listed as underdogs against the Dallas Mavericks in Game 3 of the NBA Finals.

The role of the underdog hasn't exactly been a title that has really ever fit this version of the 2024 Celtics, but on Wednesday night it's a role they'll likely play as they look to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the Finals.

For some context on the Celtics underdog role, this will be the first time they close as underdogs since April 9, when they were listed at +3.5 in Milwaukee against the Bucks. In fact, Boston has only been an underdog twice since the New Year, with both games coming against the Bucks — both were also double-digit road losses.

This season overall, the Celtics have only been underdogs in three games entering Game 3 of the NBA Finals, tied for the second-fewest number of games that a Finals team has been listed as an underdog entering the NBA Finals since 1995.

The record for the fewest games as a 'dog goes to the 1996-97 Chicago Bulls, who were favored in all 82 of their regular season games and all of their playoff games entering their matchup against the Utah Jazz. In the NBA Finals, the Bulls were listed as underdogs in three games against Utah.

Here is the list of the teams with the fewest games as an underdog entering their appearance in an NBA Finals since 1995:

Of the previous seven teams on this list, only the 2016 Warriors failed to win the NBA title. Going a bit deeper into the list though, there have been 13 teams to enter a Finals with fewer than 10 games as an underdog, not including the Celtics this season. If we remove both the 2016 Warriors and Cavaliers (underdogs in nine games) who are both on the list, the other 11 teams all won it all (2021 Bucks, 2020 Lakers, 2018 Warriors, 2007 Spurs, 2005 Spurs).

Now let's take a second and focus on Game 3. Boston is currently 2.5-point underdogs in Dallas, which would move them down the above list, but also put them in a separate category of teams to be an underdog in this few a number of games and then all of a sudden be 'dogs in the NBA Finals.

The main example to draw a comparison to the Celtics would be the 1996-97 Bulls. Never listed as an underdog all season through Game 2 of the NBA Finals — a total of 97 games. Then in Games 3, 4 and 5 of the NBA Finals in Utah, Chicago is an underdog in all three, going 1-2 SU, including losing Game 3 by 11.

The 2016 Warriors were underdogs in five games entering the finals then a 'dog three times to LeBron James and the Cavaliers. We can throw that out.

The next closest after that is probably the 2012 and 2013 Miami Heat. They were underdogs in just six and seven games, respectively, entering the Finals, then an underdog twice in 2012 against the Thunder and once in 2013 against Spurs.

All three games were on the road for Miami, with the Heat going 1-2 SU/ATS.

To me, the 2013 Heat are the 2nd-closest representation of what Boston is going through. Miami won Games 1 and 2 at home vs. Spurs, both as favorites. Then were 2-point underdogs in San Antonio in Game 3, where they lost 113-77. That series ended up going the full seven games, with the Heat beating the Spurs at home in Game 7, 95-88, as 5.5-point favorites.

In terms of the Celtics themselves, it is interesting to note that Boston has been listed as underdogs only twice this season with both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown playing, and it was both of those Bucks road losses.

Last year, the Celtics were underdogs just four times with the duo on the court. Boston ended up going 4-0 SU/ATS, winning by 23 PPG, and one of those four wins came in the playoffs on the road in Miami.

Comparing the Celtics to Other Elite Playoff Teams

There's another way to compare the Celtics to rare underdogs from past NBA Finals runs. In NBA history, only nine teams, including the 2024 Celtics, have started a playoff campaign 14-2 or better straight up — the previous eight teams all won the title that season, with none of the series even making it to seven games.

The Celtics haven't been listed as underdogs at all in the playoffs prior to Game 3 in Dallas. The unique part for Boston is they have been double-digit favorites eight times (4-4 against the spread, 6-2 straight up), and have been favored by at least 6.5 points in every game during its postseason run.

The Warriors were never listed as an underdog in any playoff game. They led 2-0 in the 2017 NBA Finals, won Game 3 on the road in Cleveland and won the series in five games.

The Lakers were listed as an underdog three times in the playoffs and went 3-0 straight up. All three games came before they reached the NBA Finals. In their Finals matchup against the 76ers, the series was 1-1 entering Game 3 and the Lakers closed out the series in five games.

The Spurs were listed as an underdog four times in the playoffs and went 4-0 straight up. All four games came before the NBA Finals. They led 2-0 in the NBA Finals against the No. 8 seed Knicks, lost Game 3 and won the series in five games.

The famed 1996 Bulls entered the NBA Playoffs with the best regular-season record in NBA history at the time. The Bulls were never listed as an underdog in any playoff game that season. They led 2-0 in the NBA Finals, won Game 3, then lost Games 4 and 5 before they closed out the series in six games.

In Michael Jordan's first championship run, the Bulls were listed as an underdog five times in the playoffs and went 4-1 straight up. Chicago was an underdog in Games 3 and 4 of the NBA Finals against the Lakers and won them both outright, winning the series in five games.

The Pistons were not listed as an underdog in any playoff game entering Game 3 of the 1989 NBA Finals against the Lakers. Detroit led the series 2-0 and was listed at +3 for Game 3 in Los Angeles. They won Game 3 outright and won Game 4 as 1-point underdogs, sweeping the Lakers.

The 1987 Lakers were never listed as an underdog in any playoff game. They led the Celtics 2-0 in the NBA Finals, lost Game 3 and won the series in six games.

The Celtics were never listed as an underdog in any playoff game during the 1986 NBA playoffs. They led 2-0 in the NBA Finals against the Rockets, lost Game 3 and won the series in six games.

So only five teams — the 2017 Warriors, 1996 Bulls, 1989 Pistons, 1987 Lakers and 1986 Celtics — started 14-2 or better straight up in the playoffs and weren't listed as an underdog in the playoffs at any point entering Game 3 of the NBA Finals.

Even further, the eight teams that started 14-2 SU before the Finals were listed as underdogs a total of 14 times combined, going 13-1 SU. The only loss came from the 1991 Bulls, who lost Game 3 of their second round series against the Sixers.

The Kristaps Porziņģis injury is a factor here, but the Celtics could be one of the few historically elite teams to be listed as underdogs in Game 3 after their roaring start, barring a massive line move over the next 24 hours.