During his first term, President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on various countries and, throughout his campaign to return to the White House, has reaffirmed his commitment to repeating this approach.
According to Trump’s statements, Mexico, Canada and China will be the primary targets of tariffs on imports. Colombia was also briefly mentioned due to a dispute over the treatment of deported migrants, although that tension ultimately de-escalated.
Based on Trump’s promises and speeches, tariffs will likely be imposed on other countries, though the scope and timing of these measures remains uncertain.
How to Bet on Trump’s Economic Policy
Kalshi, available in all 50 states, offers markets to trade on a variety of topics, including politics, weather and awards. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, you buy “contracts” based on whether you believe a specific event will happen.
The price of each contract (ranging from 1–99 cents) fluctuates in real time, reflecting the probabilities analyzed by other users. Every contract settles at $1 if it’s correct at expiration and at nothing if it’s incorrect. However, like the stock market, you can sell your position early to lock in a profit if its value increases.
What Are the Odds on Tariffs?
One of Kalshi’s active events is: “Will Trump Impose Tariffs on any Country before March?” Currently, the majority position — and the most expensive contracts — favor “Yes,” though the price has shifted over time.
On Sunday, the price of “Yes” contracts nearly reached 99 cents after the White House threatened tariffs on Colombia. This came after President Gustavo Petro refused to allow U.S. military flights carrying deported migrants to land. However, after nearly 10 hours of negotiations, the dispute was resolved.
Following the resolution, the price of “Yes” contracts dropped to a low of 60 cents, creating gains for those who had bet on “No” — their contract values climbed from 1 cent to nearly 40 cents each.
A Key Date for the Trade Policy with Canada and Mexico
In his first hours back in office, Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, starting February 1. This promise had already been made during his campaign, along with pledges to impose up to 20% tariffs on imports from all countries and 60% tariffs on goods from China.
On Tuesday, January 28, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada — countries with which the U.S. has a free trade agreement (USMCA) — are still on track to take effect early next month.
Without providing an exact timeline, but insisting it would happen “in the very near future,” Trump reiterated his plans to impose tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper, computer chips, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
“We have to bring production back to our country,” he said in defense of the policy.
Why "No" Could Still Be a Smart Pick
The “No” position could be a smart pick as Trump’s tariff threats could be intended as either a negotiation tactic or a genuine economic policy move.
Official statements suggest tariffs are imminent, which has driven down the price of “No” contracts. However, if the February 1 deadline passes without action, the value of “No” contracts will likely surge as Kalshi's March 1 deadline approaches.
This scenario presents an excellent opportunity for traders to buy low and sell high — one of the simplest ways to turn a quick profit, much like in the stock market.
Best Pick: "No" (When average price is 10 cents or lower)
