The competition between Artificial Intelligence platforms is intensifying, so it is no surprise that Sam Altman, the most recognizable face in the industry, keeps making headlines.
The unexpected arrival of China’s DeepSeek was followed by a fresh clash between OpenAI’s CEO and Elon Musk. The billionaire owner of Tesla and the social network X (which has its own AI, Grok) proposed buying the company that controls ChatGPT for $97 billion.
Kalshi, which operates more like the stock market than a traditional sportsbook, offers markets around these topics, so let’s dig into the OpenAI CEO odds and make some predictions for Sam Altman and Elon Musk.
OpenAI CEO Odds
Speculation over Altman’s position as the company’s leader is nothing new. In November 2023, OpenAI’s board of directors ousted him, citing concerns that he “was not consistently candid in his communications.” However, intense pressure from employees and investors led to his reinstatement less than a week later.
Musk’s recent bid to acquire OpenAI has reignited the uncertainty. As a result, the chances of Altman being out as CEO peaked on Kalshi at 31.3% on Monday. Altman’s rejection of the proposal with a simple “No, thanks” caused the odds to drop to 21%.
Since then, contract prices have fluctuated, with an increase in trades favoring Altman’s departure following Musk’s visit to the White House on Tuesday.
However, the precedent of the failed attempt to remove Altman and his refusal to accept Musk's bid makes saying no to his departure a solid prediction.
Will Altman Visit Mar-a-Lago?
Another Kalshi market has been impacted by this AI power struggle — trading on who will visit Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. Kim Kardashian currently leads with a 38% probability.
Altman once led the odds and reached a 56.9% peak in December. Since then, the value of that contract has declined to 35%.
The tech leader was already at the White House on Trump’s first full day in office this term. With China and France emerging as key players in the AI race, further high-profile meetings are likely. However, as of now, there’s no clear indication that Altman will visit Mar-a-Lago.
Will OpenAI Stop Being a Non-Profit?
The possibility of a buyout via a group of investors led by Musk has once again raised questions about whether OpenAI will change its business model. The possibility of becoming a for-profit company gained traction in late December when the board of directors announced it was evaluating the corporate structure “with the goal of making a stronger non-profit supported by the for-profit’s success.”
Since then, Kalshi's OpenAI odds of the company no longer being a non-profit have dropped from 95% to 72%. Amid speculation and the $97 billion bid, Altman rejected Musk’s criticism that OpenAI is abandoning its non-profit mission.
“We’re not moving to a for-profit model,” Altman said in an interview with Bloomberg. “I mean, we’re not sure we’re gonna do it at all. But no matter what, the nonprofit will continue to be extremely important; it will drive the mission and will continue to exist. The board is looking at lots of options about how to best structure for this next phase, but the nonprofit is not going anywhere.”
A smart pick is difficult in this case due to OpenAI's own business model, in which a nonprofit organization owns a minority stake in the for-profit company. The evolution of rival AI platforms will play a crucial role in determining OpenAI’s path forward.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
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