Kash Patel’s nomination has entered a critical moment in the Senate. After securing approval from the Judiciary Committee last week, his fate now rests with Thursday's full chamber vote.
Despite the Republican Party’s majority, the latest odds from Kalshi indicate that the outcome remains uncertain.
GOP Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has announced she will not support President Donald Trump's nominee to lead the nation’s top law enforcement agency, a decision that netted one Kalshi user a big payout.
Collins’ Opposition Triggers Huge Payout
The odds of Collins rejecting Patel’s nomination were as low as 3% on Kalshi. As a result, those who bought contracts for that outcome saw their money multiply significantly after the statement in which the lawmaker expressed her opposition was released.
🫡 Thanks to the @Kalshi guys for the payday! https://t.co/scpTn6YbXYpic.twitter.com/tk6adH8enG
— LanceUpper (@LanceupperPI) February 20, 2025
The market remains active, with contracts still available on the decisions of senators Thom Tillis and John Curtis, both of whom are expected to support Patel’s nomination.
There is also significant interest in the choice of Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski — who, alongside Collins, was a key figure in the Republican resistance to Trump during his first term — as well as in the vote of Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell, who today announced his decision to retire next year and has previously voted against several of Trump’s administration nominees. Neither has yet to publicly state their position.
How Many Senators Will Vote to Confirm Patel?
Another active Kalshi market allows traders to predict on the final Senate vote count for Patel’s confirmation. The most favored outcome (52% probability) suggests he will secure 51 votes — just enough to be confirmed.
A scenario in which Patel receives exactly 50 votes has a 32% chance, a figure that surged following Collins’ announcement.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
Use the promo code below to claim $10 when signing up as a new user.
