It may not be obvious based on the discourse around the Boston Celtics entering the NBA Finals, but they are an elite basketball team. Not just compared to other teams in the league this season but on the level of some of the best teams historically.
Want to compare their regular season statistics to other great teams? They rank fifth all-time in Basketball Reference's SRS (11.34), they tied the IndianaPacers for the best Effective Field Goal Percentage (.578) in league history and had the best Offensive Rating (123.2) in NBA history.
What about their performance throughout the season and playoffs? There have been 20 other teams in NBA history who won 78% of their games during the regular season and made the NBA Finals, and 15 of those teams won it all.
The Celtics played just 14 games in the playoffs on their way to the Finals. Since the NBA went to a seven-game series in every round in 2003, only two teams have made the NBA Finals playing fewer than 14 games: Warriors and Cavaliers in 2017.
What about betting history? The Celtics have been favorites to win the NBA championship entering the regular season and playoffs, a distinction only 14 other teams since the 1990 season can claim: Bulls ('92, '96, '97, '98), Lakers ('02, '04, '09), Spurs ('05), Heat ('12, '13, '14), and Warriors ('17, '18, '19). Eleven of those 14 teams won the championship.
The Celtics are -225 favorites to beat the Mavericks, listed at +180, in the NBA Finals. Since 1988, teams listed at -200 or higher to win the NBA Finals are 22-3, including 21-2 when they have home-court advantage.
You get the point; Boston, on paper, is in good company. They've made the Eastern Conference finals for three straight seasons and the NBA Finals twice in that span.
However, the betting public doesn't view the Celtics like the elite teams that sportsbooks and basketball history say they reflect. The Mavericks are drawing significantly more bets and money as series underdogs at BetMGM than the Celtics with roughly 24 hours before Game 1 tips off.
"It's been nothing but Mavs money since the Western Conference finals ended. Eighty percent of the money has come in on the Mavs to win the title," BetMGM trader Hal Egeland told Vegas Insiders' Patrick Everson. "This doesn't come as a shock to us. The public discourse is around how easy a path the Celtics have had."
"I'd argue there were 82 regular-season games that showed how good the Celtics were," Egeland added. "But it seems like the public isn't as high on the C's as we are."
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So, how do we explain the disconnect? Are the Celtics historical outliers, or have teams with their pedigree been in this position before?
"Actually, the Celtics are a bit of an outlier, as those earlier teams had more star power: Jordan/Pippen, Shaq/Kobe, and the Splash Brothers," a longtime Vegas oddsmaker said. "People bet on them, as they were cream-of-the-crop superstars and household names. Tatum and Brown are a great duo, but just don't have the notoriety nationally as the others I mentioned."
"The Doncic/Irving duo is perceived to be as good as the Celtics duo," the oddsmaker said. "And the public is getting plus money with the Mavs [on moneyline/series odds]. With [some of] those other matchups, there weren't any opposing star combos that would warrant action on the 'dog."
Jeff Sherman, vice president of risk for The SuperBook, sees it differently.
"We might be different than other books, but we are seeing good two-way on the series and more Boston support for Game 1," Sherman said. "It's similar to the Warriors when they were at their heights and the earlier Lakers. But not with quite the same faith. I'm sure that's due to the struggles with an Indiana team missing Haliburton for a few games."
"If the Celtics had done anything noteworthy in that series, this [series] number would have been higher," Sherman added. "Prior to the playoffs, we would've had Boston around -400 vs the Mavericks. So the lower price has been accounted for in both teams' recent performances."
History says the Celtics are the clear favorites. Recency bias says the Mavericks are primed to pull an upset. Ahead of Game 1, the public is betting the latter, and only time will reveal whether the Celtics will join the great teams of the past as champions.
Patrick Everson and Evan Abrams contributed research and reporting for this story.
