What happens to MLB win totals if a team's season is shortened?
It's a question many are wondering after the Mets and Braves were forced to postpone games on Wednesday and Thursday due to Hurricane Helene. Those games will now potentially happen after the rest of the MLB regular season concludes. However, one — or both — of the games could very well not take place.
In order for that to be the case, the Diamondbacks or Braves would need to be eliminated from playoff contention. That would require the Braves to lose all three games vs. the Royals this weekend. The Diamondbacks can be eliminated if the Braves or Mets each win one more game than Arizona does this weekend.
In either event, there would be no need for the Mets vs. Braves doubleheader, except for seeding purposes. Both teams, according to reports, would likely be amenable to canceling the games if they both qualify for the postseason. If only the Mets make it, it's the same situation.
As it stands, the teams would have to play a doubleheader on Monday before flying to their respective postseason destinations that same night to play the next day — not ideal for either squad.
Both teams, in that instance, will have only played 160 games. Is that enough for midseason or preseason win total markets to settle?
Well, both the Mets and Braves have seen their regular, preseason win totals settle. The Mets' preseason over at 82.5 has been surpassed and the Braves preseason total of 102.5 is comfortably under. But those lines fluctuated throughout the year — some got the Mets at 88.5 wins midseason, for instance, or the Braves at a similar amount.
For those with the over on win totals that are pending, here's the bad news: At most major American sportsbooks, even if the Mets or Braves don't play the final two games, those markets will settle as is.
Meaning, if you had 89, that bet would lose if the Mets finish the weekend with 87 or 88 wins and don't play their final two remaining games.
Conversely, those with under tickets are in luck. Even if both those games are canceled, bets will stand. Those with under futures still pending on either team will be hoping for this scenario.
At FanDuel and DraftKings — the duopoly of American sports betting — teams need to play at least 159 games in order for win totals to settle. The least either team will play is 160 games, although there's a chance the Braves are still hampered by weather over the weekend. They play the Royals for a three-game set in Atlanta, but weather forecasts indicate Hurricane Helene will be gone by Saturday. There's a very good chance Friday's game is postponed into a doubleheader on Saturday.
At BetMGM, the same rules apply regarding the 159 game minimum.
But here's the rub. At Caesars, teams need to play a full 162-game season or wagers will void. The sportsbook will settle all wagers that are irrevocably true — like, for instance, the under on 102.5 wins for the Braves. As per their house rules, though, they can selectively void or slap a losing ticket on other wagers at their whims.
In the 2022 NFL season, a similar controversy arose with Bengals futures. The Bengals were forced to cancel their game vs. the Bills after Buffalo safety Damar Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest. All wagers that had been "mathematically guaranteed" were paid out accordingly, but wagers on the Bengals to record exactly 12 wins were voided. That's despite the fact that the Bengals finished the season with 12 wins.
Caesars' house rules on the NFL require teams to play the full 17-game schedule in order for "non-mathematically guaranteed" decisions to settle.
