We're basically a quarter of the way through the 2018 NFL season with most teams playing four of their 16 games so far. There are plenty of takeaways, and some are more evident than others.
The leading storyline in betting is teams getting the minority of spread bets are having the best season through four weeks that we've ever tracked (dating back to 2003).
Here are some of the basics in terms of betting trends so far.
Situational Spots
- Favorites: 28-34-1 against the spread (ATS), 39-22-2 straight up (-2.3 units)
- Dogs: 34-28-1 ATS, 22-39-2 SU (+6.6u)
- Home: 33-29-1 ATS, 38-23-2 SU (+2.3u)
- Away: 29-33-1 ATS, 23-38-2 SU (+1.7u)
Betting Market
- Teams with more than 50% of spread bets: 23-38-1 ATS, 32-28-2 SU (-11.2u)
- Teams with at least 60% of spread bets: 13-20-1 ATS, 20-12-2 SU (-2.9u)
- Teams with at least 70% of spread bets: 3-9 ATS, 4-7-1 SU (-5.8u)
- Teams with fewer than 50% of spread bets: 38-23-1 ATS, 28-32-2 SU (+15.4u)
- Teams with 40% of spread bets or less: 20-13-1 ATS, 12-20-2 SU (+7.2u)
- Teams with 30% of spread bets or less: 9-3 ATS, 7-4-1 SU (+11.5u)
Totals
- Overs: 34-29
- Totals with at least 70% of bets: 10-6
Against-the-Spread Superlatives
- Best ATS Team: Chiefs 4-0
- Worst ATS Team: Broncos 0-3-1
Super Bowl Risers
- Los Angeles Rams: +900 to +175 (+26.4% implied probability)
- Kansas City Chiefs: +3000 to +700 (+9.3% IP)
- Cincinnati Bengals: +8000 to +2500 (+2.6% IP)
Super Bowl Fallers
- Houston Texans: +1200 to +5000-(-5.7% IP)
- Los Angeles Chargers & Pittsburgh Steelers: +1200 to +3000 (-4.5% IP)
- Atlanta Falcons & Minnesota Vikings: +1400 to +4000 & +1000 to +2000 (-4.3% IP)
