Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
The 2019 NFL draft class has a relatively deep group of wide receivers, one of whom is Oklahoma junior Marquise Brown. But "Hollywood" has been unable to work out for scouts in advance of the draft because of a Lisfranc injury, so there's some uncertainty as to when he'll be selected.
The draft is rapidly approaching, and for the first time ever it will be held in Nashville, TN.
Here’s the seven-round schedule.
- Thursday, April 25: Round 1
- Friday, April 26: Rounds 2-3
- Saturday, April 27: Rounds 4-7
In this piece, I look at when Brown is likely to be selected in the 2019 NFL draft.
2019 NFL Draft: Marquise Brown Draft Position
- Over 19.5: -160
- Under 19.5: +120
I love the over and am betting it aggressively.
I’ve surveyed the most recent mocks of 20 respected analysts, and in six of them Brown falls out of Round 1 altogether. In the remaining 14, he has an average draft position of 23.1. So even when he's projected for Round 1, Brown is widely expected to come off the board after pick No. 19.
There are a couple of factors working against Brown. First, it's doubtful that any wide receiver will be drafted before pick No. 20. The over/under for first receiver drafted is 15.5, but that number seems low based on team needs and the players available.
With all the defensive linemen and quarterbacks expected to go in the top half of the draft, wide receivers might be pushed down the board. At one book, I've even seen the over/under for first receiver drafted at 19.5.
Additionally, Brown might not be the top wide receiver on the board for many (if not most) teams. It's possible, maybe probable, that more teams prefer D.K. Metcalf out of Mississippi.
Whlle Brown has been the more productive player, Metcalf is significantly bigger (228 pounds vs. 166), and he might even be faster than Brown with his 4.33-second 40-yard dash.
And although Brown's foot injury isn't expected to cause any long-term issues, it is possible that some teams could move him down their boards because they don't have a verified 40 time for him as a result of his injury.
In only two of the 20 mocks does Metcalf fall out of Round 1, and he's off the board before Brown in 14 of the drafts. If wide receivers fall down the board, and if Metcalf is selected first, Brown's draft position is unlikely to hit the under.
In just four of the mocks is Brown selected prior to pick No. 20.
I'd bet over 19.5 all the way to -200.
The Pick: Over 19.5 (-160)
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
