With the NFL season about to start, now is as good a time as any to take a big-picture look at the betting market to see how the market thinks this season will unfold. The best way to do that is to go over all 32 win totals and see how the number has moved, if at all.
Which teams are getting public love? Where is the smart money? Which teams are not interesting anybody at all? We spoke to Jeff Sherman, the VP of Risk Management at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, to break down all 32 Over/Unders.
All odds current as of Sept. 4, 2019.
Arizona Cardinals
Over/Under: 5
Odds: Over (-110), Under (-110)
The public often loves to bet on the much-hyped quarterbacks right after the draft and that seems to be what's happening with Arizona.
"We've taken mostly over money, but in small amounts," Sherman said.
Atlanta Falcons
Over/Under: 8.5
Odds: Over (-140), Under (+120)
Sherman said the Westgate took a $12,000 bet on the Over (8.5) at -120.
Baltimore Ravens
Over/Under: 8.5
Odds: Over (+110), Under (-130)
"Our liability is on the under," Sherman said.
Buffalo Bills
Over/Under: 7
Odds: Over (-140), Under (+120)
The Bills may have long odds in the Super Bowl market, but the market believes they will be somewhat competent this season. "We took $30,350 on the Over 6.5 at -160 and moved the number from 6.5 to 7," Sherman said.
Carolina Panthers
Over/Under: 8
Odds: Over (-130), Under (+110)
"Minimal action."
Chicago Bears
Over/Under: 9
Odds: Over (-140), Under (+120)
There's no surprise here. The Bears are entering 2019 with high expectations and plenty of hype, so you'd expect recreational bettors and Bears fans to get down on the over.
"The public is betting the over," according to Sherman.
Cincinnati Bengals
Over/Under: 6
Odds: Over (+130), Under -150
"We're skewing a little bit to the Under."
Cleveland Browns
Over/Under: 9
Odds: Over (+105), Under (-125)
Like the Bears, the Browns have generated a lot of buzz heading into 2019. A lot of times sharp bettors will look to take advantage of narratives driving a team's number up, but 9 seems to be spot on for Cleveland.
"The number is good. We have pretty even action on both sides of the total," Sherman said.
Dallas Cowboys
Over/Under: 9
Odds: Over (-110), Under (-110)
The Cowboys are one of the most public teams in the NFL so it's no surprise that Sherman reported that square money is backing the over. There also was no movement on this total after the team announced Ezekiel Elliott's new deal.
"Zeke was baked in," Sherman noted.
Denver Broncos
Over/Under: 7
Odds: Over (+110), Under (-130)
"We’ve got an accumulation of mostly under money."
Detroit Lions
Over/Under: 6.5
Odds: Over (-145), Under (+125)
"We've got more over money than under money at this point."
Green Bay Packers
Over/Under: 9
Odds: Over (-130), Under (+110)
"We took over bets of $16,500 to win $15,000 and $11,000 to win $10,000."
Houston Texans
Over/Under: 8.5
Odds: Over (-110), Under (-110)
"We have more money on the over."
Indianapolis Colts
Over/Under: 7.5
Odds: Over (-110), Under (-110)
The Colts became one of the most interesting teams in the market after Andrew Luck's surprising retirement. Prior to Luck's announcement, the Colts were the odds-on favorite to win the AFC North. Things changed quickly.
"The Colts were the biggest mover thanks to Luck's retirement," Sherman said. "We dropped them two full games, and since then we've taken more under money but we've had good two-way action."
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/Under: 8
Odds: Over (-110), Under (-110)
"There's a small amount of support for the over."
Kansas City Chiefs
Over/Under: 10.5
Odds: Over (-130), Under (+110)
The Chiefs were one win away from making the Super Bowl last season and are among the favorites to win the Lombardi Trophy this season, so it's no shocker that the public is attracted to the over. The wiseguys seem to disagree though.
"The public is on the over, but the sharps are on the under," Sherman said.
Los Angeles Chargers
Over/Under: 10
Odds: Over (+120), Under (-140)
"Nothing much to report here."
Los Angeles Rams
Over/Under: 10.5
Odds: Over (+125), Under (-145)
The Rams are one of the favorites to win the NFC, but smart money is skeptical that they will be able to repeat their performance from 2018. "The sharps have hit the under," Sherman noted.
Miami Dolphins
Over/Under: 4.5
Odds: Over (+110), Under (-130)
"The public is on the under, we opened it at 5 and moved it down to 4.5."
Minnesota Vikings
Over/Under: 9
Odds: Over (-130), Under (+110)
"We have a small amount of public money on the over."
New England Patriots
Over/Under: 11
Odds: Over (-160), Under (+140)
The Pats have the highest win total on the board and it evidently isn't high enough for casual punters.
"The public is on the over," Sherman said.
New Orleans Saints
Over/Under: 10.5
Odds: Over (+130), Under (-150)
There are some similarities between the Rams and Saints in the market. The two NFC favorites have the same Over/Under and the betting pattern is similar.
"Sharp money has come in on the under against the Saints," Sherman said.
New York Giants
Over/Under: 6
Odds: Over (EVEN), Under (-120)
"Public under here."
New York Jets
Over/Under: 7.5
Odds: Over (-110), Under (-110)
"We have quite a bit of under money here."
Oakland Raiders
Over/Under: 6
Odds: Over (Even), Under (-120)
"Lot of action, some of it has to do with Raiders future move to Vegas. Bunch of support for the under. They have an extremely difficult schedule."
Philadelphia Eagles
Over: 10
Odds: Over (-160), Under (+140)
"Public has the over here."
Pittsburgh Steelers
Over/Under: 9.5
Odds: Over (-110), Under (-110)
"Money mostly on the over."
San Francisco 49ers
Over/Under 8
Odds: Over (-130), Under (+110)
"We’ve taken more under money here, but that’s because we have a more aggressive price than other shops."
Seattle Seahawks
Over/Under: 9
Odds: Over (Even), Under (-120)
"We moved this Over/Under from 8.5 to 9 thanks to action on the over due to the Clowney addition."
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/Under: 6.5
Odds: Over (-110), Under (-110)
"Solid two-way action."
Tennessee Titans
Over/Under: 8
Current Odds: Over (+120), Under (-140)
"Nothing to report."
Washington Redskins
Over/Under: 6
Odds: Over (+130), Under (-150)
"We've got more money on the under than the over for Washington."
