Updates During the Draft
Round 2 Update
Jalen Hurts is arguably the biggest name left on the NFL Draft Board and sportsbooks will have a keen eye on where the former Alabama/Oklahoma quarterback lands.
FanDuel's Kevin Hennessy told us that 15% of their total handle for the rest of the draft is on the Hurts market and the biggest bet we've seen for Round 2, a $10,000 bet on Hurts to go Over 62.5 at +102, is still riding at PointsBet, though that particular bettor didn't get a good number.
PointsBet has Hurts' Over/Under at 48.5 going into Round 2, while the highest number left on the board is at BetMGM who had Hurts at 53.5. According to Elisa Richardson, spokesperson for MGM, they are hoping that Hurts goes Over his total and doesn't land with the New England Patriots.
DraftKings will also be hoping Hurts doesn't join up with Bill Belichick, as 34% of the money for the "Which Team Will Draft Jalen Hurts?" market is on New England.
Round 1 Betting Updates
12:10 a.m. ET: The Chiefs took LSU RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the 32nd and final pick in the first round. Less than a week ago, Edwards-Helaire was 20-1 to be the first running back picked in the draft at DraftKings. He took on considerable late action and was 3-1 (the second favorite behind D'Andre Swift) on draft day.
PointsBet told The Action Network that sharp bettors were on Edwards-Helaire to be the first RB off the board at 12-1 odds.
The Chiefs selecting CEH also busted everyone who bet Under 0.5 running backs in Round 1. That was a popular bet at plus-money odds on draft day.
11:25 p.m. ET: Jordan Love was drafted by the Green Bay Packers, who traded up from pick No. 30 to take the Utah QB at 26. The selection cashed Over 3.5 quarterbacks drafted in Round 1. William Hill's biggest draft bet was $4,000 to win $1,000 on Over 3.5.
10:55 p.m. ET: One of the biggest bets of the night was $10,000 on Under 22.5 for QB Jordan Love's draft position at +100 odds. When the Minnesota Vikings took Justin Jefferson with this 22nd overall pick, this bet busted.
8:55 p.m. ET: With the Dolphins' selection of Tua Tagovailoa at No. 5 overall, the biggest bet of the night comes through for a brave punter who put $43,386 wager on the Dolphins' first drafted player to be an offensive player. The bet, which was placed at PointsBet, profited a little more than $3,000.
A different bettor at MGM wagered $14,000 to win $13,468 on Miami to draft Tua at -104.
Miami was by far the most popular pick at DraftKings in the "Which Team Will Draft Tua?" market, as DK reported more than 50% of the wagers were on the Dolphins.
This would seem to cancel out another large last-minute wager that came in on Miami: One bettor at MGM put $3,000 at 12-1 odds that the Dolphins would be the team to select Utah QB Jordan Love. The bet would've returned $36,000.
8:48 p.m. ET: Everyone figured the New York Giants would go with an offensive lineman with the No. 4 overall pick, but not many prognosticators thoughts they'd pick Georgia's Andrew Thomas, which is what they ended up doing on Thursday night. The pick cashed two decent longshot bets:
- DraftKings took a $400 bet on April 14 at 14-1 for Thomas to go to the Giants. It profited $6,000.
- One bettor at MGM cashed an 11-1 ticket on Thomas-to-the-Giants, profiting $2,750 on a $250 bet.
8:40 p.m. ET: Joe Burrow, Chase Young and Jeff Okudah were selected with picks 1-2-3, much to the chagrin of sportsbooks. DraftKings told The Action Network this prop cashing was its biggest single liability of the entire first round. PointsBet also noted it has a large amount of liability on this particular prop.
8:32 p.m. ET: Chase Young to the Redskins, which means this super longshot will not come through: A DraftKings bettor put $350 on the 49ers to draft Young at 500-1 odds. That brazen wager would have won $175,000.
8:25 p.m. ET: The Bengals selected Joe Burrow with the No. 1 overall pick, which was a massive favorite to take place. One bettor put $14,400 on the Heisman winner to be the first pick at -7000 odds. That bet profited $201. FanDuel closed Burrow as a -100000 favorite to be the No. 1 pick.
Thursday Night Updates
Bettors Hammering Dolphins Picks from All Angles
The biggest bet we've heard of for tonight's draft: A $43,386 wager on the Dolphins' first drafted player to be on offense at PointsBet. It would profit a little more than $3,000 (odds were -1429).
But that's just one of multiple huge wagers on what the Dolphins will do on Thursday night.
A player at MGM bet $3,000 at 12-1 odds that the Miami Dolphins will be the team that drafts Love. The bet would return $36,000.
This wager is obviously a longshot; the bettor is banking on the Dolphins to take on offensive lineman with their first pick and taking Love with their second pick at No. 18, but there's been some strange buzz around the Dolphins the past couple of hours. Stranger things have happened.
Another interesting Love bet, for whatever it's worth, PointsBet took a $10,000 bet on Under 22.5 for QB Jordan Love's draft position at +100 odds, meaning the wager would profit $10,000 if it hits.
A different bettor at MGM wagered $14,000 to win $13,468 on Miami to draft Tua at -104. Another bettor is rooting for Miami to pull a stunner and draft Alabama offensive lineman Jedrick Wills. The $1,200 bet would pay out $16,800 thanks to 14-1 odds. MGM also took in a $9,950 bet to win $13,432.50 on Tua's draft position to be Over 5.5.
There's been plenty of action on other props, as you'll read below, but it's becoming pretty clear that what Miami does with the No. 5 pick will make or break the night for sportsbooks.
Longshots and Odds Movement
DraftKings reported that someone had a $350 flutter on the 49ers to draft Chase Young at 500-1 odds. That brazen wager would win $175,000.
Lastly, WR Jared Jeudy to the Jags is gaining some traction. PointsBet had that prop at +1800 a few days ago; it's now down to +500.
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Thursday Morning Updates
Given the circumstances, we know that this year's NFL Draft will be a gigantic moment. The interest has reached a fever pitch, ratings are expected to be bananas and the betting action is already soaring to new heights.
FanDuel spokesman Kevin Hennessy said they are projecting to do 10 times the amount of business that they did last year. It’s not exactly apples to apples since FanDuel is now in more states and is offering four times the bets, but it’s still very significant.
And with sports around the globe halted due to the COVID-19 pandemic you can be sure that bettors have been champing at the bit to get down on the Draft.
We're tracking all the action — from big bets to the book's liabilities below:
Longshots and Big Bets
Everybody loves to bet a longshot and a few bettors at William Hill are hoping for some craziness on Thursday night. The biggest potential payout comes on a $500 bet on the Browns to select Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons at 50-1 odds. If Cleveland, which currently holds the No. 10 pick, takes Simmons, the bettor will net $25,000.
Another $500 bet at William Hill, this one on the Buccaneers to draft wide receiver Jerry Jeudy at 40-1, would pay out $20,000.
Here are the four other biggest potential longshots at William Hill:
- $1,000 to win $15,000 on Redskins to draft Tua Tagovailoa (15/1)
- $100 to win $15,000 on Jalen Hurts to be third quarterback drafted (150/1)
- $100 to win $15,000 on Browns to draft Jeff Okudah (150/1)
- $100 to win $15,100 on Redskins to draft Jeff Okudah (150/1)
William Hill's biggest single wager came on Over 3.5 quarterbacks to be selected in Round 1 at -400. That particular bettor put down $4,000 to win $1,000.
Other big bets at William Hill include:
- $3,200 to win $2,000 on Jerry Jeudy under 12.5 (-160)
- $2,900 to win $2,000 on Jerry Jeudy under 12.5 (-145)
- $2,500 to win $2,750 on Cesar Ruiz to be drafted in first round (+110)
- $2,500 to net $1,000 on over 5.5 offensive linemen taken in first round (-250)
The Inevitable
FanDuel's biggest liability is on Joe Burrow going No. 1 overall, which is a mortal lock to come to fruition. Burrow's been a massive favorite to go No. 1 for quite some time now but those odds didn't deter one bettor, who put $14,400 on the Heisman winner to be the first pick on Thursday night at -7000 odds. That bet stands to net $201.
FanDuel currently has Burrow listed as a -100,000 favorite to be the first pick.
The second-most popular bet — at least by total money wagered — is on which team will pick Tua Tagovailoa. Here are the five most popular bets for that market, sorted by money percentage:
- Dolphins: 53.8%
- Chargers: 17.2%
- Lions: 8.2%
- Raiders: 6.5%
- Jaguars: 4.8%
As for Tua's Over/Under, 75% of the money is on the Over 5.5 at FanDuel.
[Freedman's Final 2020 NFL Mock Draft]
Tua Talk
Speaking of Tua, the folks at DraftKings will be hoping he lands anywhere besides MoTown. One bettor put $1,000 on the Lions to be the team that selects Tagovailoa at +2500. (Detroit currently holds the third overall pick.) If that comes to fruition the punter will net $25,000.
DraftKings says that their biggest single liability — and most popular bet — is on Joe Burrow, Chase Young and Jeffrey Okudah going 1-2-3. Any mixup of those three outcomes would be good for the book and if Okudah falls further than No. 5 it will be a big boost for the guys on the other side of the window.
The Over/Under on Tagovailoa's draft position — which was offered at 3.5, 4.5 and 5.5 — is the second-most popular bet at DraftKings. Most wagers have come in on the over and the book says their best-case scenario is the Alabama quarterback going No. 3 overall. The worst-case scenario would come to fruition if Tagovailoa falls to sixth or further.
Will Hurts Hurt the Sportsbooks?
PointsBet told The Action Network that their biggest liability is on a different former Crimson Tide quarterback, Jalen Hurts, thanks to a $10,000 bet on Hurts to go Over 62.5 at +102.
Like DraftKings, PointsBet also noted that they will be rooting against the Burrow-Young-Okudah trifecta.
