A robust prop market is forming for the 2020 NFL Draft, and that’s great for us.
Last year, I went 54-29 (+17.7 units) on draft props. There’s no guarantee I’ll have similar success this year, but I do like a lot of the props out there, including many of those for whether teams will draft offensive or defensive players with their first picks.
In this piece, I break down the offense-vs.-defense props for picks 21-25.
Odds as of Wednesday, April 8, and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
2020 NFL Draft: Philadelphia Eagles (DraftKings)
- Offense: -182
- Defense: +150
The Eagles have a strong offensive line, and quarterback Carson Wentz, running back Miles Sanders and tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert are foundational pieces, but the entire wide receiver unit is a question mark.
Alshon Jeffery is 30 years old going on 45. DeSean Jackson played in just one full game last year. Greg Ward is an undrafted quarterback-turned slot receiver. And J.J. Arcega-Whiteside massively underwhelmed last year as a rookie.
The Eagles need a wide receiver, and this class just happens to be loaded at the position.
I take a “wisdom of the crowds” approach by surveying as many reputable mock drafts as possible. I find that these drafts, created by mockers with established records of success, collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes.
In 91.7% of them, the Eagles select a wide receiver in Round 1 of the draft, most often Justin Jefferson (LSU), but a number of receivers could conceivably be taken at No. 21.
If you think the Eagles are likely to go with a wide receiver, there's value in offense at -182, as well as receiver to be the first position they draft at -143 (DraftKings).
PICK: Offense -182: 0.5 units. Limit: -400.
PICK: Wide Receiver -143: 0.5 units. Limit: -250.
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
2020 NFL Draft: Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have needs on both offense and defense: They are most commonly mocked a wide receiver or defensive back.
The issue is that the team has picks Nos. 22 & 25, so even if it does go receiver and cornerback (for instance), it's hard project which pick it'll use on which position.
As a result, I'm staying away from the Vikings' offense-vs.-defense props.
2020 NFL Draft: New England Patriots (PointsBet)
- Offense: -125
- Defense: -106
It's almost impossible to know what head coach and general manager Bill Belichick will do in the draft, but in 50% of expert mocks, the Patriots have selected a quarterback, usually Jordan Love (Utah State) at No. 23.
And in 66.7% of mocks, they've selected an offensive player.
If you think the Patriots are likely to draft a replacement for the recently departed Tom Brady, you might want to look at them to draft a quarterback at +200 (DraftKings).
PICK: Offense -125: 0.5 units. Limit: -150.
PICK: Quarterback +200: 0.5 units. Limit: +150.
[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]
2020 NFL Draft: New Orleans Saints (DraftKings)
- Offense: -127
- Defense: +104
Although some sharper drafters have the Saints going with a wide receiver at No. 24 — and that would be the general range for selecting one in this class — the Saints don't have an obvious need at the position, given that they have Michael Thomas, just signed Emmanuel Sanders and drafted Tre'Quan Smith with a third-round pick two years ago.
But the Saints could use some defensive help, especially at linebacker and in the secondary.
In 66.7% of expert mocks, the Saints draft either linebacker Patrick Queen (LSU) or a defensive back.
PICK: Defense +104: One unit. Limit: -150.
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
2020 NFL Draft: Minnesota Vikings
Because the Vikings have picks Nos. 22 & 25, I'm staying away from their props.
More 2020 NFL Draft Betting Picks
- Total QBs Drafted in Round 1
- How to Bet the Top 3 Picks
- QB Tua Tagovailoa’s Draft Position
- First Wide Receiver to Be Drafted
- First Running Back to Be Drafted
- First Tight End to Be Drafted
- First Offensive Lineman to Be Drafted
- Second Offensive Player to Be Drafted
- Exact Order of Top 3 Picks
- Second Quarterback to Be Drafted
- First Safety to Be Drafted
- First Player Drafted by Giants
- WR Jerry Jeudy’s Draft Position & to the Jets
- First Player Drafted: Offense vs. Defense, Picks 1-5
- First Player Drafted: Offense vs. Defense, Picks 6-10
- First Player Drafted: Offense vs. Defense, Picks 11-15
- First Player Drafted: Offense vs. Defense, Picks 16-20
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, part of The Action Network.
