A robust prop market is forming for the 2020 NFL Draft, and that’s great for us.
Last year, I went 54-29 (+17.7 units) on draft props. There’s no guarantee I’ll have similar success this year, but I do like a lot of the props out there, including many of those for whether teams will draft offensive or defensive players with their first picks.
In this piece, I break down the offense-vs.-defense props for picks 26-30.
Odds as of Thursday, April 9, and via FanDuel. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
2020 NFL Draft: Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have three first-rounders, including two in the top 20. They will almost certainly not be taking their first player at pick No. 26.
2020 NFL Draft: Seattle Seahawks (FanDuel)
- Offense: +116
- Defense: -148
It's almost impossible to have any sense of what the Seahawks will do at No. 27. Two years ago, they made running back Rashaad Penny a surprise first-round selection with the same pick. Last year, they reached for edge defender L.J. Collier at No. 29.
They seem likeliest to address the defensive line or secondary — edge rusher Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State) is the player I've seen mocked most frequently to the Seahawks — but no one has any real idea.
I take a “wisdom of the crowds” approach by surveying as many reputable mock drafts as possible. I find that these drafts, created by mockers with established records of success, collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes.
In 66.7% of them, the Seahawks draft a defender at No. 27. With -148 odds, the Seahawks have a 59.7% implied probability to go defense, so there's some theoretical value in this line, but I certainly won't be betting it aggressively.
PICK: Defense -148: 0.25 units. Limit: -150.
[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
2020 NFL Draft: Baltimore Ravens (DraftKings)
- Offense: -125
- Defense: +104
The Ravens are clearly strong on offense with MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson, and their defense came on in the second half of 2019 after the cornerback trio of Marcus Peters, Jimmy Smith and Marlon Humphrey was formed.
But they are notably weak at off-ball linebacker, and at No. 28 they have a good shot at Kenneth Murray (Oklahoma) or Patrick Queen (LSU), either of whom would be a worthy choice.
In 58.3% of expert mocks, the Ravens select Murray or Queen.
PICK: Defense +104: One unit. Limit: -125.
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
2020 NFL Draft: Tennessee Titans (FanDuel)
- Offense: -126
- Defense: -102
Given that they played in the AFC Championship Game last season and actually had a 17-7 lead in the second quarter, the Titans don't have many significant weaknesses.
On offense, 10 of their 11 projected starters had Pro Football Focus grades of at least 70 last year. That's outstanding.
On defense, though, they aren't as stout, and defense-focused head coach Mike Vrabel might push for the team to address that side of the ball in Round 1.
In 66.7% of expert mocks, the Titans draft either a defensive lineman or cornerback at No. 29.
We're reaching the point in the draft where projections become much less certain — the Titans do take an offensive lineman in 33.3% of expert mocks — but the odds seem reasonable that they will go with a defender.
PICK: Defense -102: One unit. Limit: -150.
[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
2020 NFL Draft: Green Bay Packers (DraftKings)
- Offense: -177
- Defense: +144
The Packers need to give aging franchise quarterback Aaron Rodgers more offensive support, and wide receiver and offensive line look like good places for an upgrade: Aside from Davante Adams, the Packers lack a reliable pass-catching presence, and they lost long-time right tackle Bryan Bulaga in free agency.
In 83.3% of expert mocks, the Packers take either a receiver or offensive tackle at No. 30, most frequently landing with wide receiver Denzel Mims (Baylor).
PICK: Offense -177: One unit. Limit: -250.
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
More 2020 NFL Draft Betting Picks
- Total QBs Drafted in Round 1
- How to Bet the Top 3 Picks
- QB Tua Tagovailoa’s Draft Position
- First Wide Receiver to Be Drafted
- First Running Back to Be Drafted
- First Tight End to Be Drafted
- First Offensive Lineman to Be Drafted
- Second Offensive Player to Be Drafted
- Exact Order of Top 3 Picks
- Second Quarterback to Be Drafted
- First Safety to Be Drafted
- First Player Drafted by Giants
- WR Jerry Jeudy’s Draft Position & to the Jets
- First Player Drafted: Offense vs. Defense, Picks 1-5
- First Player Drafted: Offense vs. Defense, Picks 6-10
- First Player Drafted: Offense vs. Defense, Picks 11-15
- First Player Drafted: Offense vs. Defense, Picks 16-20
- First Player Drafted: Offense vs. Defense, Picks 21-25
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, part of The Action Network.
