A robust prop market is forming for the 2020 NFL Draft, and that’s great for us.
Last year, I went 54-29 (+17.7 units) on draft props. There’s no guarantee I’ll have similar success this year, but I do like a lot of the props out there, including many of those for whether teams will draft offensive or defensive players with their first picks.
In this piece, I break down the offense-vs.-defense props for picks 11-15.
Odds as of Monday, April 6, and via PointsBet. Get up to $25 FREE and $250 in free bets at PointsBet today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
2020 NFL Draft: New York Jets (DraftKings)
- Offense: -335
- Defense: +260
The Jets have significant defensive needs, but there are no obvious defenders who offer value at the No. 11 pick.
Meanwhile, the Jets desperately need offensive line and pass-catching help: Left tackle Kelvin Beachum is a free agent, right tackle Brandon Shell has signed with the Seahawks and wide receiver Robby Anderson has joined the Panthers.
Fortunately for the Jets, they are likely to have either a top-tier tackle or the No. 1 wide receiver in the draft fall to them at No. 11.
I take a “wisdom of the crowds” approach by surveying as many reputable mock drafts as possible. I find that these drafts, created by mockers with established records of success, collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes.
In 83.3% of them, the Jets take either a tackle or a wide receiver.
PICK: Offense -335: One unit. Limit: -400.
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
2020 NFL Draft: Las Vegas Raiders (DraftKings)
- Offense: -200
- Defense: +160
Right now, the Raiders have Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfrow and Zay Jones at wide receiver. Phrased differently: The Raiders might have the league's worst wide receiver unit. They must address the position, and they are expected to do that in the top half of Round 1.
In 83.3% of expert mocks, the Raiders select a wide receiver at No. 12. It seems more probable than not that they will select Jerry Jeudy (Alabama), CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma) or Henry Ruggs III (Alabama).
PICK: Offense -200: One unit. Limit: -400.
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
2020 NFL Draft: San Francisco 49ers (PointsBet)
- Offense: -164
- Defense: +135
I'm a little hesitant to bet this prop since the 49ers are strong throughout their roster, which means that they could select almost anyone who fits this general draft range.
But after losing wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders in free agency, it would make sense for them to upgrade at receiver via the draft, and it's highly likely that one of Jeudy, Lamb and Ruggs will be available at No. 13.
In 88.9% of expert mocks, the 49ers draft a wide receiver with their first pick in Round 1.
PICK: Offense -164: One unit. Limit: -250.
[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]
2020 NFL Draft: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PointsBet)
- Offense: -145
- Defense: +120
At No. 14, the Bucs could probably justify drafting South Carolina defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw, LSU edge defender K'Lavon Chaisson, Florida cornerback C.J. Henderson or Oklahoma linebacker Kenneth Murray — but they don't really need them.
The Bucs defense was No. 5 last year in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, and it is pretty strong throughout the unit.
The Bucs might have the league's best front four with edge rushers Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul and defensive tackles Ndamukong Suh and Vita Vea. At linebacker, Lavonte David and Devin White are strong.
And at corner, the Bucs have four players in Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Jamel Dean and M.J. Stewart in whom they've invested top-100 picks over the past two years.
They could use a secondary upgrade on the back end, but No. 14 is probably too soon to draft Alabama safety Xavier McKinney.
Besides, given that the Bucs just signed quarterback Tom Brady, it's relatively likely that they'll draft someone on offense in Round 1 to give him some support, probably an offensive lineman: Right tackle Demar Dotson will turn 35 years old this year, and he's a free agent.
In 66.7% of expert mocks, the Bucs take an offensive player.
PICK: Offense -145: One unit. Limit: -165.
[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]
2020 NFL Draft: Denver Broncos (FanDuel)
- Offense: -250
- Defense: +190
I think it's likelier than not that the Broncos will draft a wide receiver in Round 1: They have a clear need after trading away Emmanuel Sanders in the middle of the 2019 season, and the 2020 class is loaded at the position.
In 58.3% of expert mocks, the Broncos select a wide receiver.
But they also go with a defensive tackle or linebacker in 41.7% of Round 1 drafts, and they have a defense-focused head coach in Vic Fangio.
The offense/defense decision for the Broncos isn't all that far from a coin flip, so I'm inclined to take the plus money.
PICK: Defense +190: One unit. Limit: +160.
[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
More 2020 NFL Draft Betting Picks
- Total QBs Drafted in Round 1
- How to Bet the Top 3 Picks
- QB Tua Tagovailoa’s Draft Position
- First Wide Receiver to Be Drafted
- First Running Back to Be Drafted
- First Tight End to Be Drafted
- First Offensive Lineman to Be Drafted
- Second Offensive Player to Be Drafted
- Exact Order of Top 3 Picks
- Second Quarterback to Be Drafted
- First Safety to Be Drafted
- First Player Drafted by Giants
- WR Jerry Jeudy’s Draft Position & to the Jets
- First Player Drafted: Offense vs. Defense, Picks 1-5
- First Player Drafted: Offense vs. Defense, Picks 6-10
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, part of The Action Network.
