A robust prop market is forming for the 2020 NFL Draft, and that’s great for us.
Last year, I went 54-29 (+17.7 units) on draft props. There’s no guarantee I’ll have similar success this year, but I do like a lot of the props out there, including many of those for whether teams will draft offensive or defensive players with their first picks.
In this piece, I break down the offense-vs.-defense props for picks 16-20 (you can find picks 11-15 here).
Odds as of Tuesday, Apr. 7, and via PointsBet. Get up to $25 FREE and $250 in free bets at PointsBet today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
2020 NFL Draft: Atlanta Falcons (PointsBet)
- Offense: +215
- Defense: -271
The Falcons are strong on offense with quarterback Matt Ryan and wide receivers Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, but they have a world of needs on defense, where they could look to upgrade the defensive line and the secondary.
I take a “wisdom of the crowds” approach by surveying as many reputable mock drafts as possible. I find that these drafts, created by mockers with established records of success, collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes.
In 100% of them, the Falcons take either a defensive lineman or cornerback, and that makes sense: It's likely that one of South Carolina defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw, Florida cornerback C.J. Henderson and LSU edge defender K'Lavon Chaisson will be available, and all of them fit the draft range at No. 16 and address a need.
PICK: Defense -271: One unit. Limit: -500.
[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]
2020 NFL Draft: Dallas Cowboys (PointsBet)
- Offense: +200
- Defense: -250
This line is so off that you can arbitrage it if you want by betting defense -250 at PointsBet and offense +260 at DraftKings. (See our Hedging Calculator.)
The Cowboys led the league last season with 6.5 yards per play, and they are loaded on offense with quarterback Dak Prescott, running back Ezekiel Elliott and wide receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup.
They don't need help on offense.
But they need to upgrade along the defensive line and in the secondary, and they do just that in 91.7% of expert mock drafts.
Henderson, Chaisson and Kinlaw are especially likely targets at No. 17
PICK: Defense -250: One unit. Limit: -500.
[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]
2020 NFL Draft: Miami Dolphins & Pittsburgh Steelers
The Dolphins have the No. 18 pick, but I expect that they will take a player before that in Round 1, given that they also have the No. 5 pick.
As for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who traded the No. 18 pick to the Dolphins in the 2019 season for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, I'll not try to project what they'll do with their first pick, which is in Round 2. That's too late in the draft to make predictions with any certainty.
2020 NFL Draft: Las Vegas Raiders & Chicago Bears
The Raiders have the No. 19 pick, but they also have the No. 12 pick, so I expect their first selection in Round 1 won't be in the second half.
The Chicago Bears traded this pick to the Raiders a couple of years ago for edge defender Khalil Mack. The Bears don't pick until Round 2, so I'll avoid the offense-vs.-defense prop.
2020 NFL Draft: Jacksonville Jaguars & Los Angeles Rams
The Jags have the No. 9 pick in addition to the No. 20 pick, so I expect that they will draft a player before the second half of Round 1.
The Los Angeles Rams traded the No. 19 pick to the Jags last year cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The Rams don't have a pick until Round 2, so I'll stay away from their draft props as well.
More 2020 NFL Draft Betting Picks
- Total QBs Drafted in Round 1
- How to Bet the Top 3 Picks
- QB Tua Tagovailoa’s Draft Position
- First Wide Receiver to Be Drafted
- First Running Back to Be Drafted
- First Tight End to Be Drafted
- First Offensive Lineman to Be Drafted
- Second Offensive Player to Be Drafted
- Exact Order of Top 3 Picks
- Second Quarterback to Be Drafted
- First Safety to Be Drafted
- First Player Drafted by Giants
- WR Jerry Jeudy’s Draft Position & to the Jets
- First Player Drafted: Offense vs. Defense, Picks 1-5
- First Player Drafted: Offense vs. Defense, Picks 6-10
- First Player Drafted: Offense vs. Defense, Picks 11-15
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, part of The Action Network.
