A robust prop market is forming for the 2020 NFL Draft, and that’s great for us.
Last year, I went 54-29 (+17.7 units) on draft props. There’s no guarantee I’ll have similar success this year, but I do like a lot of the props out there, including many of those for whether teams will draft offensive or defensive players with their first picks.
In this piece, I break down the offense-vs.-defense props for picks 31-32.
Odds as of Monday at 5:20 p.m. ET and via FanDuel. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
2020 NFL Draft: San Francisco 49ers (FanDuel)
- Offense: -168
- Defense: +132
The 49ers acquired pick No. 13 from the Indianapolis Colts in exchange for defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, so it's doubtful that they will make their first draft pick at No. 31.
I take a “wisdom of the crowds” approach by surveying as many reputable mock drafts as possible. I find that these drafts, created by mockers with established records of success, collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes.
Although the 49ers select a defensive tackle or defensive back at No. 31 in 75% of the expert mocks, they select a wide receiver with their early first-rounder in 88.9% of drafts.
PICK: Offense -168: One unit. Limit: -250.
[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
2020 NFL Draft: Kansas City Chiefs (DraftKings)
- Offense: +125
- Defense: -152
Two years ago, the Chiefs' defense ranked No. 26 in the league in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, and when the Chiefs needed a stop in the 2018-19 AFC Championship, they couldn't get it.
Last year, they improved on defense — they were merely mediocre at No. 14 in DVOA — and that incremental change helped them win the Super Bowl.
But they still need to build a more reliable defense if they want to compete for a championship on a yearly basis, so I expect them to draft a defender at No. 32.
It's hard to say who they will select or even which position they will target, but with the last pick in Round 1, they are in a great spot to get value by taking whatever strong defensive player happens to fall down the draft board, especially since they could use upgrades at each level of the defense.
In 90.9% of expert mocks, the Chiefs select a defender. With a draft position over/under of 31.5 (BetMGM), defensive tackle Ross Blacklock (TCU) is a notable option.
PICK: Defense -152: One unit. Limit: -300.
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
More 2020 NFL Draft Betting Picks
- Total QBs Drafted in Round 1
- How to Bet the Top 3 Picks
- QB Tua Tagovailoa’s Draft Position
- First Wide Receiver to Be Drafted
- First Running Back to Be Drafted
- First Tight End to Be Drafted
- First Offensive Lineman to Be Drafted
- Second Offensive Player to Be Drafted
- Exact Order of Top 3 Picks
- Second Quarterback to Be Drafted
- First Safety to Be Drafted
- First Player Drafted by Giants
- WR Jerry Jeudy’s Draft Position & to the Jets
- First Player Drafted: Offense vs. Defense, Picks 1-5
- First Player Drafted: Offense vs. Defense, Picks 6-10
- First Player Drafted: Offense vs. Defense, Picks 11-15
- First Player Drafted: Offense vs. Defense, Picks 16-20
- First Player Drafted: Offense vs. Defense, Picks 21-25
- First Player Drafted: Offense vs. Defense, Picks 26-30
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, part of The Action Network.
