A robust prop market is forming for the 2020 NFL Draft, and that’s great for us.
Last year, I went 54-29 (+17.7 units) on draft props. There’s no guarantee I’ll have similar success this year, but I do like a lot of the props out there, including many of those for whether teams will draft offensive or defensive players with their first picks.
In this piece, I break down the offense-vs.-defense props for Picks 6-10.
Odds as of Friday, April 3, and via PointsBet. Get up to $25 FREE and $250 in free bets at PointsBet today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
2020 NFL Draft: Los Angeles Chargers (FanDuel)
- Offense: -430
- Defense: +300
What do you think the true odds are that the Chargers don't draft a quarterback — either Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama) or Justin Herbert (Oregon)?
I think they're almost nil.
The Chargers have a notable need at the position, and even if they decide not to trade up from No. 6, they still seem incredibly likely to have a quarterback fall to them.
I take a “wisdom of the crowds” approach by surveying as many reputable mock drafts as possible. I find that these drafts, created by mockers with established records of success, collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes.
In 91.7% of them, the Chargers selected a quarterback.
PICK: Offense -430: One unit. Limit: -800.
[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
2020 NFL Draft: Carolina Panthers (PointsBet)
- Offense: +165
- Defense: -205
A couple of months ago, I thought the Panthers might look to draft an offensive lineman, and this class has three or four offensive tackles likely to go in the top 10.
But then the Panthers acquired left tackle Russell Okung from the Chargers via trade, and they still have right tackle Taylor Moton, who was No. 3 on the offense last year — trailing only running back Christian McCaffrey and wide receiver D.J. Moore — with his 76.0 Pro Football Focus grade.
Moton is in the final year of his contract, so the Panthers still might entertain the possibility of drafting a tackle — but probably not in Round 1.
So the Panthers now seem likely to look elsewhere, and they have a realistic shot to draft the top player at a few defensive positions: Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons, Auburn defensive tackle Derrick Brown and maybe even Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah, if he falls down the board.
In all the expert mocks I've surveyed — even those in which the Panthers trade down — they have drafted a defender.
PICK: Defense -205: One unit. Limit: -400.
[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]
2020 NFL Draft: Arizona Cardinals (PointsBet)
- Offense: -233
- Defense: +190
The Cardinals re-signed left tackle D.J. Humphries, but they are still in the market for a tackle to play opposite him, and this is a top-heavy class at the position.
Whether it's Tristan Wirfs (Iowa), Jedrick Wills Jr. (Alabama), Mekhi Becton (Louisville) or Andrew Thomas (Georgia), the Cardinals should be able to find a tackle they like in the top 10.
In 91.7% of the expert mocks, the Cardinals draft an offensive tackle.
PICK: Offense -233: One unit. Limit: -500.
[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]
2020 NFL Draft: Jacksonville Jaguars (DraftKings)
- Offense: +100
- Defense: -121
What do you get when the team that needs everything and has no idea how to prioritize positions or value players?
A guy who plays an almost meaningless position: Defensive tackle.
Either Brown or Javon Kinlaw (South Carolina) is slated to the Jags in 66.7% of expert drafts, and in only one mock do the Jags selected an offensive player.
I won't lay a lot of juice on the Jags because they are an unpredictable organization with so many needs all over the field, but it's more probable than not that they'll go with defense in Round 1.
PICK: Defense -121: One unit. Limit: -200.
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
2020 NFL Draft: Cleveland Browns (PointsBet)
- Offense: -345
- Defense: +270
For a team picking in the top 10, the Browns are loaded, especially at the offensive skill positions, but they still need a potential blindside tackle to pair with recently signed right tackle Jack Conklin.
Fortunately for them, one of the top-tier tackles is likely to fall to No. 10, and in 91.7% of expert mocks, the Browns take a tackle in Round 1, most often Thomas.
PICK: Offense -345: One unit. Limit: -500.
[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]
More 2020 NFL Draft Betting Picks
- Total QBs Drafted in Round 1
- How to Bet the Top 3 Picks
- QB Tua Tagovailoa’s Draft Position
- First Wide Receiver to Be Drafted
- First Running Back to Be Drafted
- First Tight End to Be Drafted
- First Offensive Lineman to Be Drafted
- Second Offensive Player to Be Drafted
- Exact Order of Top 3 Picks
- Second Quarterback to Be Drafted
- First Safety to Be Drafted
- First Player Drafted by Giants
- WR Jerry Jeudy’s Draft Position & to the Jets
- First Player Drafted: Offensive vs. Defense, Picks 1-5
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, part of The Action Network.
