A robust prop market is forming for the 2020 NFL Draft, and that’s great for us.
Last year, I went 54-29 (+17.7 units) on draft props. There’s no guarantee I’ll have similar success this year, but I do like a lot of the props out there, including many of those for whether teams will draft offensive or defensive players with their first picks.
In this piece, I break down the offense-vs.-defense props for Picks 1-5.
Odds as of Thursday, April 2, and via FanDuel. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
2020 NFL Draft: Cincinnati Bengals
- No lines posted
LSU quarterback Joe Burrow is almost certain to be drafted No. 1 overall by the Bengals.
2020 NFL Draft: Washington Redskins (DraftKings)
- Offense: +305
- Defense: -400
I take a “wisdom of the crowds” approach by surveying as many reputable mock drafts as possible. I find that these drafts, created by mockers with established records of success, collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes.
In 91.7% of them, the Redskins select Ohio State edge defender Chase Young at No. 2 overall. In fact, they take a defender in 100% of the Round 1 mocks.
PICK: Defense -400: One unit. Limit: -800.
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
2020 NFL Draft: Detroit Lions (FanDuel)
- Offense: +350
- Defense: -550
If the Lions stay at No. 3, they're likely to draft cornerback Jeff Okudah or linebacker Isaiah Simmons — or maybe even Young, if a team trades up to No. 2, because if a team does that, it's almost certainly taking a quarterback.
And if the Lions trade down, they will likely swap with the Miami Dolphins at No. 5 or Los Angeles Chargers at No. 6, in which case they will still be likely to draft a defender — whichever one of Young, Okudah and Simmons happens to be left.
In 100% of the mocks I've surveyed the Lions have drafted a defensive player in Round 1.
PICK: Defense -550: One unit. Limit: -800.
[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
2020 NFL Draft: New York Giants (PointsBet)
- Offense: -223
- Defense: +180
The Giants need help on the offensive line, and the 2020 class is loaded with top-tier offensive tackles, four of whom have a real chance to go in the top 10.
Whether they stay at No. 4 or trade down to allow another team to draft a quarterback early, the Giants will have an excellent opportunity to select a tackle they like as long as they don't move too far down the board.
In 83.3% of the expert mocks, the Giants select an offensive tackle.
PICK: Offense -223: One unit. Limit: -400.
[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]
2020 NFL Draft: Miami Dolphins (FanDuel)
- Offense: -480
- Defense: +330
This line is so bad that you can arbitrage it if you want by betting offense -480 at FanDuel and defense +520 at DraftKings. (See our Hedging Calculator.)
In every draft I've surveyed but one, the Dolphins select a passer with their first pick — usually Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa but sometimes Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert — and that's regardless of whether they stay at No. 5 or trade up to Nos. 2-4.
In the one dissenting expert mock, the Dolphins take Iowa offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs.
Considering how strong the top of this class is at quarterback and offensive tackle and how strong the team's needs are at those positions, it's hard to imagine the Dolphins taking a player at another position in the top 10.
PICK: Offense -480: One unit. Limit: -800.
[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
More 2020 NFL Draft Betting Picks
- Total QBs Drafted in Round 1
- How to Bet the Top 3 Picks
- QB Tua Tagovailoa’s Draft Position
- First Wide Receiver to Be Drafted
- First Running Back to Be Drafted
- First Tight End to Be Drafted
- First Offensive Lineman to Be Drafted
- Second Offensive Player to Be Drafted
- Exact Order of Top 3 Picks
- Second Quarterback to Be Drafted
- First Safety to Be Drafted
- First Player Drafted by Giants
- WR Jerry Jeudy's Draft Position & to the Jets
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, part of The Action Network.
