2020 NFL Draft Odds: Player to Be Selected With Giants' First Draft Pick
- Mekhi Becton: +280
- Isaiah Simmons: +400
- Jedrick Wills: +400
- Tristan Wirfs: +400
- Andrew Thomas: +500
- Chase Young: +1600
- Jeffrey Okudah: +1600
- Derrick Brown: +2000
- Jerry Jeudy: +4000
- CeeDee Lamb: +4000
- K'Lavon Chaisson: +5000
- Javon Kinlaw: +8000
- Henry Ruggs III: +10000
- C.J. Henderson: +10000
- Justin Herbert: +10000
- Tua Tagovailoa: +10000
- Joe Burrow: +25000
Odds as of Tuesday, March 31, and via BetMGM. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at BetMGM today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
A robust prop market is forming for the 2020 NFL Draft, and that’s great for us.
Last year, I went 54-29 (+17.7 units) on draft props. There’s no guarantee I’ll have similar success this year, but I do like a lot of the props out there, including the one for the player to be the first draft pick of the New York Giants.
Picks to Be First Player Drafted by the Giants
- Mekhi Becton: +300 (FanDuel)
- Isaiah Simmons: +400 (BetMGM)
- Jedrick Wills: +400 (BetMGM)
- Tristan Wirfs: +400 (BetMGM)
There are several ways to approach this prop. If you want maximal expected value (+EV), you'll invest only in Iowa tackle Tristan Wirfs.
I take a “wisdom of the crowds” approach by surveying as many reputable mock drafts as possible. I find that these drafts, created by mockers with established records of success, collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes.
And I'm yet to see Wirfs fall outside the top 10 in any expert draft, and no player is mocked to the Giants more than he is at 41.7%.
If you want to enhance your odds of cashing without significantly lowering your +EV position, you can add Louisville's Mekhi Becton to the ticket.
Like Wirfs, Becton is a dominant blocker and elite athlete who will enter the league as a 21-year-old rookie with the potential to put up multiple All-Pro campaigns over the next decade.
Becton has gone to the Giants in 25% of expert drafts.
And the Giants need help along the offensive line: Left tackle Nate Solder turns 32 in April, and right tackle Mike Remmers signed with the Kansas City Chiefs this offseason.
The Giants selected quarterback Daniel Jones last year, and they need to give him as much support as possible. The Giants have one of the league’s best collections of skill players in running back Saquon Barkley, wide receivers Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate and Darius Slayton and tight end Evan Engram, so if they want to improve the offense, they will likely address the line.
If you absolutely want to lock down the offensive line, you can add Alabama tackle Jedrick Wills to your ticket. Wills has been mocked to the Giants in 16.7% of expert drafts.
But adding Wills to the mix — while increasing your odds of hitting on the right player — will also reduce your +EV position. So you'll need to weigh the pros and cons for yourself.
One benefit of having Wills on the ticket: He's likely to go later than Wirfs and Becton in Round 1, so he theoretically offers some protection in case the Giants do trade down from the No. 4 pick.
One more player to consider is Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons. The Giants have a need at the position, and Simmons is arguably the best player likely to be available at No. 4.
Like Wills, Simmons is mocked to the Giants in 16.7% of expert drafts and is a hedging addition to the ticket. He decreases the +EV quality of the bet, but he also all but ensures that the ticket will cash.
Collectively, Wirfs, Becton, Wills and Simmons go to the Giants in 100% of the mocks I've surveyed.
Expected Returns for First Player Drafted by the Giants
If Wirfs Only: If you bet one unit on Wirfs and the ticket cashes, you'll profit four units.
If Wirfs and Becton: If you bet one unit on each player, you'll profit three units if Wirfs win; two units, if Becton.
If Wirfs, Becton and Wills/Simmons: If you bet one unit on each player, you'll profit two units if Wirfs or Wills/Simmons win; one unit, if Becton.
If Wirfs, Becton, Wills and Simmons: If you bet one unit on each player, you'll profit one unit if Wirfs, Wills or Simmons win; break even, if Becton.
PICK: Tristan Wirfs +400: One unit. Limit: +300
[Bet now at BetMGM. NJ only.]
PICK: Mekhi Becton +300: One unit. Limit: +300
[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
PICK: Jedrick Wills +400: One unit. Limit: +400
[Bet now at BetMGM. NJ only.]
PICK: Isaiah Simmons +400: One unit. Limit: +400
[Bet now at BetMGM. NJ only.]
More 2020 NFL Draft Betting Picks
- Total QBs Drafted in Round 1
- How to Bet the Top 3 Picks
- QB Tua Tagovailoa’s Draft Position
- First Wide Receiver to Be Drafted
- First Running Back to Be Drafted
- First Tight End to Be Drafted
- First Offensive Lineman to Be Drafted
- Second Offensive Player to Be Drafted
- Exact Order of Top 3 Picks
- Second Quarterback to Be Drafted
- First Safety to Be Drafted
Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, part of The Action Network.
