2020 NFL Player Props: How to Bet Drew Lock’s Passing Props

NFL Prop Bets: Broncos QB Drew Lock

Odds as of Sept. 6 and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

It took five starts for Drew Lock to become one of the darlings of the NFL.

Lock showed promise for the 7-9 Denver Broncos, who, after giving Lock the keys to the franchise in the spring, drafted a pair of explosive receivers, Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler, to join forces with Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant. Lock will also be supported by a two-headed attack in the backfield with Melvin Gordon and Philip Lindsay.

With Lock under the center, the Broncos went 4-1 behind an average of 209 yards per game, 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Our Action Network Projections do see steady growth from the Missouri product, projecting Lock for 3,740 yards, 24 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.

I am pretty high on Lock in general but do think the talk of him being an MVP dark horse is a bit overstated. Instead, I think the best way to invest in Lock is to back him going over his touchdown total.

Lock and Sutton meshed well together quickly, and the QB was also able to get Fant involved in the offense. Sutton averaged 8 targets per game when Lock was under center and snagged 2 touchdowns.

Fant was quiet in his rookie season but did have a breakout game in Houston with Lock starting, catching 4 passes for 113 yards.

While he may not have the preseason in 2020 to get acclimated with the likes of Jeudy and Hamler, Lock can build on that part of the offense as the season goes on, but at least he's already got an established connection with his most reliable targets.

Denver will face some formidable defenses in the Steelers, Buccaneers, Patriots and Bills outside of their division in 2020, which makes me cautious to buy too much Bronco stock this season.

Behind a fine offensive line, Lock should be able to hang in the pocket, but he has shown some ability to use his legs to keep plays alive. I also think we’ll be seeing Lock throw the ball a lot this season because the Broncos will be down on the scoreboard, which is a bonus to his touchdown total.

This is Lock’s job for the foreseeable future so I don’t envision him getting pulled if he is losing, so pending health this should be a full 16-game slate for the QB.

The Drew Lock Hype Train may have gotten a little bit out of hand this offseason, but he showed promise last season and has some exciting weapons to work with.

Lock must average 1.375 touchdown passes per game to hit his over. He may not be slinging across the field and posting five-touchdown games, but he showed last season that he is on his way to becoming a capable quarterback in the NFL.

We will see him succeed and struggle in his first full year, and for that I like his over touchdown passes 21.5, up to 23.5. I also think that his over interception total of 10.5 is in play as I see him forcing the ball downfield during the season, which may inflate that number.

Bet: Lock Over 21.5 Touchdown Passes

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