The 2020 NFL Draft isn't even over yet, but now is the time to start betting on Rookie of the Year.
Here are the six coordinated bets I'm making for offensive ROY.
2020 NFL Rookie of the Year Picks
Odds as of late Thursday and via various legal sportsbooks. Check out our reviews and list of the best promos at books in your state.
Joe Burrow to Win OROY
Over the past 16 years, the league has increasingly become a more quarterback-friendly and pass-focused league, and in that span, a passer has won the award 50% of the time.
All of the OROY quarterback winners since 2004 have started at least 13 games. Most of them had 15-plus starts. With the exception of Dak Prescott (2016), all of them were drafted in Round 1. Aside from Dak and Ben Roethlisberger (2004), all were selected with top-three picks.
Burrow is likely to start in Week 1, and he has a good wide receiver unit in A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, John Ross and Auden Tate and two good receiving backs in Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard.
It’s not at all hard to imagine Burrow winning the award.
But he's the only quarterback I'm betting. Tua Tagovailoa will probably redshirt the season. Justin Herbert is likely to open the year behind Tyrod Taylor. And Jordan Love will ride the bench behind Aaron Rodgers.
At the quarterback position, it's probably Burrow or bust … unless Jalen Hurts somehow starts 13-plus games. I'll bet that doesn't happen.
PICK: Burrow to Win OROY +250: One unit.
[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Running Backs To Win OROY
Only two wide receivers over the past 16 years have won the award: Odell Beckham Jr. (2014) and Percy Harvin (2009).
It's hard for receivers to win the award in general, and I think it will be especially hard for them to do so this year because the coronavirus will likely limit the amount of time they have in the preseason to learn the offense and practice with their quarterbacks.
So I expect either Burrow or a running back to win the award this year.
Which running back?
I'm partial to Clyde Edwards-Helaire …
Andy Reid won a Super Bowl in February and just drafted the second coming of Brian Westbrook.
He's in full Keith Hernandez mode right now.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 24, 2020
Clyde Edwards-Helaire to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
+2500 via @BetMGM.
Booked.
Get it: https://t.co/4KHbpD4mKd
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 24, 2020
… and you should bet on his line as quickly as possible. It has already moved down significantly at some books.
But really all of the top-five backs — at least right now — look like they could win the award.
So I'm betting on all of them:
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire: +2500 (BetMGM)
- D'Andre Swift: +1200 (DraftKings)
- Jonathan Taylor: +2000 (DraftKings)
- J.K. Dobbins: +2000 (DraftKings)
- Cam Akers: +5000 (DraftKings)
Oh, baby. Those are some great lines right there.
Here's my strategy: I'm going to put 0.5 units on each one. If Burrow wins, I'll break even. The 2.5 units I win from Burrow will cover the 2.5 units invested in the five backs.
If one of the backs wins, I'll get a nice profit:
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire: +9.5 units
- D'Andre Swift: +3.0 units
- Jonathan Taylor: +7.0 units
- J.K. Dobbins: +7.0 units
- Cam Akers: +22.0 units
Essentially, I'm assuming that no one other than these six guys will win the award — and that might not be a safe assumption, but just go with it — and then I'm using the bet on Burrow to freeroll my exposure to the running backs.
PICK: Edwards-Helaire to Win OROY +2500: 0.5 units.
[Bet now at BetMGM. NJ only.]
PICK: Swift to Win OROY +1200: 0.5 units.
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
PICK: Taylor to Win OROY +2000: 0.5 units.
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
PICK: Dobbins to Win OROY +2000: 0.5 units.
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
PICK: Akers to Win OROY +5000: 0.5 units.
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, part of The Action Network.
