FanDuel has just released the first draft position over/unders to the prop market, and there are several that look exploitable.
Last year, I was 124-88-1 (+26.2 units) betting the NFL draft and the No. 6 mocker in the FantasyPros accuracy contest. In 2019, I was 54-29 (+17.7 units) on the draft and was also a top-20 mocker in the FantasyPros accuracy contest and Mock Draft Database contest.
While I rely on my own research, I also take a "wisdom of the crowds" approach by surveying an index of mock drafts. I find that these drafts — created by experts with established records of success — collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes for what we might see with any given player or pick.
With that in mind, here are the draft position over/unders that I am betting immediately at FanDuel.
🚨 ATTN! Draft prop over/unders are now at FanDuel! 🚨
Here's how I'm betting them.
THREADhttps://t.co/gXCSUSOop9
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 5, 2021
TE Kyle Pitts Over/Under 5.5
- Over: +122
- Under: -148
In my recent post-free agency mock draft, I have Pitts going No. 4 to the Falcons.
New head coach Arthur Smith relied heavily on two-tight end sets as the Titans offensive coordinator over the past two years, and the addition of Pitts would allow Smith to use his preferred base set.
Pitts won the 2020 John Mackey Award as the No. 1 tight end in college football and was an easy unanimous All-American selection thanks to his unreal 43-770-12 receiving in just eight games. He is worthy of a top-10 pick.
I think this line should be 4.5.
Pick: Under 5.5 (bet to -175); 1.48 units
Bet Now:FanDuel
QB Justin Fields Over/Under 3.5
- Over: -134
- Under: +110
This is basically a bet as to whether Fields will go No. 3 to the 49ers, and he's competing with Alabama quarterback Mac Jones and North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance.
In my recent mock, I have Jones going to the 49ers at No. 3. I prefer Fields as a prospect, but people in the know think Jones, not Fields, will be the pick at No. 3.
On the latest @MoveTheSticks podcast, DJ & @BuckyBrooks react to the @49ers, @MiamiDolphins & @Eagles draft pick trades. Also, could Alabama QB @MacJones_10 go No. 3 to the @49ers? Find out 👇
SPOTIFY: https://t.co/CNBBNl08mX
APPLE PODCASTS: https://t.co/DRD2zWgxhCpic.twitter.com/oeHWUtNQz1— NFL Podcasts (@NFL_Podcasts) March 29, 2021
In a three-man race, the odds are that Fields will lose.
Pick: Over 3.5 (bet to -175); 1.34 units
Bet Now:FanDuel
QB Mac Jones Over/Under 8.5
- Over: -110
- Under: -110
Jones is shooting up draft boards, and I think the Panthers at No. 8 might be his floor. I'm putting as much on the under as I can bet.
Pick: Under 8.5 (bet to -200); 2.0 units
Bet Now:FanDuel
WR Ja'Marr Chase Over/Under 5.5
- Over: +118
- Under: -144
Never let anyone tell you that niche betting markets are efficient. They aren't — at least when they open.
Right now, Ja'Marr Chase is +160 at DraftKings to be a top-five pick. In other words, #Arbitrage.
If you don't want to place bets at both books, I prefer the top-five prop at DraftKings but still think there's value on the over at FanDuel, because I make this line 5.5.
Pick: Over 5.5 (bet to +100); 1.0 units
Bet Now:FanDuel
WR Jaylen Waddle Over/Under 12.5
- Over: -110
- Under: -110
I love the under here. Waddle is in play to the Dolphins at No. 6, Giants at No. 11 and Eagles at No. 12, which is where I have him going. Honestly, I think that's near his floor.
In 75% of indexed mocks, Waddle goes before pick No. 13. I'm betting this one heavily.
Pick: Under 12.5 (bet to -200); 2.0 units
Bet Now:FanDuel
Matthew Freedman is 1,018-828-37 (55.1%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
