Editor's note: A lot has changed since this story was first published in mid-April — including some of the actual win total numbers being offered at DraftKings — but you can still find value on some of Chris Raybon's recommended bets based on the following analysis.
Raybon will have a follow-up featuring how he's investing in futures for all 32 teams no later than Sept. 6, so be sure to check back then to read his latest insights and advice.
Below is a preview of every team's 2021 win total with a pick (or lean) for each. I've also noted each team's home/road opponents, roster additions/departures and draft selections.
A few more notes:
- All odds are as of April 14 and via DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Every team's opponent for the 17th game is listed with an asterisk.
- For additions/departures, the player's positional rank in Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade is listed in parenthesis (if the player met the snap minimum).
- Departures who remain unsigned (and thus could potentially return to the team) are listed in italics.
Note: Click on a team in the table below to skip ahead.
2021 NFL Win Totals
| Team | Win Total | Pick/Lean |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 12 | Over |
| Buccaneers | 11.5 | Over |
| Ravens | 11 | Over |
| 49ers | 10.5 | Under |
| Bills | 10.5 | Over |
| Packers | 10.5 | Over |
| Rams | 10.5 | Under |
| Colts | 10 | Under |
| Browns | 9.5 | Over |
| Cowboys | 9.5 | Under |
| Seahawks | 9.5 | Over |
| Titans | 9.5 | Under |
| Chargers | 9 | Under |
| Dolphins | 9 | Over |
| Patriots | 9 | Under |
| Saints | 9 | Over |
| Steelers | 8.5 | Over |
| Vikings | 8.5 | Over |
| Cardinals | 8 | Over |
| Washington | 8 | Over |
| Broncos | 7.5 | Over |
| Panthers | 7.5 | Under |
| Raiders | 7.5 | Under |
| Bears | 7 | Under |
| Falcons | 7 | Under |
| Giants | 7 | Under |
| Bengals | 6.5 | Under |
| Eagles | 6.5 | Over |
| Jaguars | 6.5 | Under |
| Jets | 6.5 | Under |
| Lions | 5 | Under |
| Texans | 4.5 | Under |
AFC East | North | South | West
NFC East | North | South | West
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
- Home: NE/MIA/NYJ + IND, PIT, *WAS, CAR, ATL, HOU
- Road: NE/MIA/NYJ + KC. TB, TEN, NO, JAX
- Draft: 1.30, 2.61, 3.93, 5.161, 5.174, 6.213, 7.236
- Additions: RB Matt Breida, WR Emmanuel Sanders (44/112), WR Brandon Powell, TE Jacob Hollister (34/48), OT Bobby Hart (51/89), G Forrest Lamp (77/86), G Jamil Douglas, DT Efe Obada (84/138), DT Star Lotulelei (2020 opt-out), LB Tyrell Adams
- Departures:QB Matt Barkley, WR John Brown (62/112), WR Andre Roberts, TE Tyler Kroft, TE Lee Smith, OT Ty Nsekhe, DT Quinton Jefferson (82/138), DE Trent Murphy (59/125), LB Del'Shawn Phillips
This is a tough one: The Bills went 13-3 despite a Pythagorean Expected win total of 10.6 last season and now play a first-place schedule with seven of their 11 non-divisional games coming against teams who made the playoffs last year. That said, the Bills are 4-0 toward the over under Sean McDermott.
Lean: Over 10.5 (-118)
New England Patriots
- Home: BUF/MIA/NYJ + TB, DAL*, CLE, TEN, NO, JAX
- Road: BUF/MIA/NYJ + IND, LAC, CAR, ATL, HOU
- Draft: 1.15, 2.46, 3.96, 4.120, 4.122, 4.139, 5.177, 6.188, 6.197, 7.242
- Additions: FB Danny Vitale (2020 opt-out), WR Nelson Agholor (47/112), WR Kendrick Bourne (52/112), TE Jonnu Smith (11/48), TE Hunter Henry (18/48), TE Matt LaCosse (2020 opt-out), RT Trent Brown (48/89), C Ted Karras (20/38), DT Henry Anderson (52/138), DT Davon Godchaux, DE Matthew Judon (87/125), DE Montravius Adams, LB Kyle Van Noy (31/99), LB Dont’a Hightower (2020 opt-out), LB Raekwon McMillian, LB Laroy Reynolds, S Jalen Mills (24/99)
- Departures:RB Rex Burkhead, WR Julian Edelman (69/112), WR Damiere Byrd (95/112), WR Donte Moncrief, TE Ryan Izzo, G Joe Thuney (10/86), DT Adam Butler (111/138), DT Beau Allen, DE Michael Bennett, LB Brandon Copeland
The pass-catching corps improved, Karras and Brown both finished top-six in PFF's Pass Blocking Efficiency and the defense could be elite. Still, it's tough to pay excess juice on the over for a team with a weakness at the most important position.
Bill Belichick's win total record without Tom Brady is 2-6.
Pick: Under 9 (+118) » Bet at DraftKings
Miami Dolphins
- Home: BUF/NE/NYJ + BAL, IND, CAR, *NYG, ATL, HOU
- Road: BUF/NE/NYJ + TB, TEN, NO, LV, JAX
- Draft: 1.6, 1.18, 2.36, 2.50, 3.81, 5.156, 7.231, 7.258
- Additions: QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Malcolm Brown (61/63), WR Will Fuller V (10/112), TE Cethan Carter, C Matt Skura (36/38), DT John Jenkins (32/138), DT Adam Butler (111/138), CB Justin Coleman (128/136), P Michael Palardy
- Departures: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (19/42), RB Matt Breida, C Ted Karras (20/38), OT Julien Davenport, DT Davon Godchaux, LB Kyle Van Noy (31/99)
The Dolphins still need major offensive line help and Tua Tagovailoa making a second-year leap is no guarantee. Still, head coach Brian Flores is 2-0 toward the over after eclipsing preseason odds by four wins in 2020.
Lean: Over 9 (-121)
New York Jets
- Home: BUF/NE/MIA + TB, TEN, NO, JAX, *PHI, CIN
- Road: BUF/NE/MIA + IND, DEN, ATL, CAR, HOU
- Draft: 1.2, 1.23, 2.34, 3.66, 3.86, 4.107, 5.146, 5.154, 6.186, 6.226
- Additions: RB Tevin Coleman, WR Corey Davis (8/112), WR Keelan Cole (86/112), TE Tyler Kroft, C Dan Feeney (37/38), DT Sheldon Rankins (89/138), DE Carl.Lawson (16/125), DE Vinny Curry (43/125), LB Jarrad Davis (30/99), CB Lamarcus Joyner (97/136), CB Justin Hardee
- Departures: QB Sam Darnold (37/42), QB Joe Flacco (41/42), RB Frank Gore (56/63), WR Breshad Perriman (90/112), G Pat Elflein (78/86), G Josh Andrews (82/86), DT Henry Anderson (52/138), LB Jordan Jenkins (39/125), LB Frankie Luvu (64/125), LB Harvey Langi (95/99), CB Brian Poole (10/136), CB Pierre Desir (116/136), CB Matthias Farley, S Arthur Maulet (90/99), S Bradley McDougald (96/99)
Swapping Sam Darnold for a rookie (likely Zach Wilson) will almost certainly be a net gain, and the team got better in free agency and has a lot of draft capital, but seven wins is still a tough ask for first-year coach Robert Saleh in a tough AFC East.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens
- Home: CLE/PIT/CIN + KC, GB, *LAR, IND, LAC, MIN
- Road: CLE/PIT/CIN + MIA, LV, DEN, DET, CHI
- Draft: 1.27, 2.58, 3.104, 4.131, 5.171, 5.184, 6.210
- Additions:WR Sammy Watkins (86/112), TE Josh Oliver, G Kevin Zeitler (32/86)
- Departures: QB Robert Griffin III, RB Mark Ingram, WR Willie Snead IV (54/112), WR Dez Bryant, WR Chris Moore, OT Orlando Brown Jr. (26/89), C Matt Skura (33/38), DE Yannick Ngakoue (36/125), DE Jihad Ward (52/125), DE Matthew Judon (87/125), LS Morgan Cox
John Harbaugh is 8-4-1 toward the over on win totals and the Ravens have few roster weaknesses, but betting the over on a double-digit win total is risky.
Lean: Over 11 (+103)
Cleveland Browns
- Home: BAL/PIT/CIN + *ARI, LV, DEN, DET, CHI, HOU
- Road: BAL/PIT/CIN + KC, GB, NE, LAC, MIN
- Draft: 1.26, 2.59, 3.89,3.91, 4.110, 4.132, 5.169, 6.211, 7.257
- Additions: DE Takk McKinley (55/121 in ‘19), DT Malik Jackson (65/138), DE Jadeveon Clowney, LB Anthony Walker (74/99), CB Troy Hill (18/136), S John Johnson III (3/99)
- Departures: OT Kendall Lamm, Sheldon Richardson (37/138), DT Larry Ogunjobi (103/138), DE Olivier Vernon (21/138), DE Adrian Clayborn (84/125), LB B.J. Goodson (26/99), LB Tae Davis, CB Terrance Mitchell (45/136), CB Kevin Johnson (107/136), CB Tavierre Thomas, S Karl Joseph (85/99), S Andrew Sendejo (95/99)
I thought for sure I would be betting against the Browns after they hung 11 wins on the board despite a negative point differential, but it's tough to find holes on their roster. The Browns will improve upon their biggest weakness — the secondary — via the signings of Hill and Johnson as well as the returns of Greedy Williams and Grant Delpit, who each missed 2020 with injury.
With a roster featuring few holes — maybe a No. 3 cornerback and a pass rusher opposite Myles Garrett — and five of the top 132 draft picks, the juice on the over is warranted.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-150) » Bet at DraftKings
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Home: BAL/CLE/CIN + *SEA, TEN, LV, DEN, CHI, DET
- Road: BAL/CLE/CIN + KC, GB, BUF, LAC, MIN
- Draft: 1.25, 2.55, 3.88, 4.129, 4.141, 6.216, 7.246, 7.255
- Additions: RB Kalen Ballage (52/63), OT Joe Haeg, G Rashaad Coward (80/86), S Miles Killebrew
- Departures: RB James Conner (43/63), TE Vance McDonald, OT Alejandro Villanueva (30/89), G Matt Feiler (36/86), C Maurkice Pouncey (28/38), LB Vince Williams (67/99), LB Bud Dupree (81/125), LB Olasunkanmi Adeniyi, CB Mike Hilton (34/136), CB Steven Nelson (44/136), S Sean Davis
The Steelers were not as good as their 12-4 record last season — their Pythagorean win total was 10.6 — but going under 8.5 would mean Mike Tomlin's first-ever losing season since taking over the team in 2007. The Steelers are 9-5 toward the over under Tomlin.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-121) » Bet at DraftKings
Cincinnati Bengals
- Home: BAL/CLE/PIT + KC, GB, *SF, LAC, MIN, JAX
- Road: BAL/CLE/PIT + LV, DEN, CHI, NYJ, DET
- Draft: 1.5, 2.38, 3.69, 4.111, 5.149, 6.190, 6.202, 7.235
- Additions: OT Riley Reiff (40/89), DT Larry Ogunjobi (103/138), DE Trey Hendrickson (26/125), CB Mike Hilton (34/136), CB Chidobe Awuzie (103/136), CB Eli Apple, S Ricardo Allen (55/99)
- Departures: QB Ryan Finley, RB Giovani Bernard (48/66), WR A.J. Green (77/112), WR John Ross, WR Alex Erickson, TE Cethan Carter, OT Bobby Hart (51/89), C B.J. Finney, DT Christian Covington (110/138), DT Geno Atkins, DE Carl Lawson (16/125), CB William Jackson III (26/136), CB Mackensie Alexander (70/136), S Shawn Williams, K Randy Bullock (30/36)
Joe Burrow gives this team upside, but he went just 2-7 as a starter as a rookie and head coach Zac Taylor enters Year 3 with a record of 6-25-1 (.203). In a tough division and facing a brutal home slate, seven wins is overly optimistic.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-110) » Bet at DraftKings
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts
- Home: TEN/JAX/HOU + *TB, LAR, SEA, NE, LV, NYJ
- Road: TEN/JAX/HOU + BAL, BUF, SF, MIA, ARI
- Draft: 1.21, 2.54, 4.127, 5.165, 6.204, 7.247
- Additions: QB Carson Wentz (34/42), OT Julie’n Davenport, OT Sam Tevi (82/89), G Chris Reed (44/86), DE Isaac Rochell (111/125), S Sean Davis
- Departures: QB Philip Rivers (18/42), QB Jacoby Brissett, TE Trey Burton (26/48), LT Anthony Castonzo (33/89), DE Justin Houston (67/125), DE Denico Autry (71/125), LB Anthony Walker (74/99), S Tavon Wilson, S Malik Hooker
Carson Wentz was 18-11 with Frank Reich at offensive coordinator and 17-21-1 once Reich took the head job with the Colts. Still, there's no guarantee he finds his 2017 MVP form — the only season of his career he would have paced to go over this win total. And even with four combined games against Houston and Jacksonville, the schedule is tough, including a draw against the Super Bowl champion Bucs for the added 17th game.
Lean: Under 10 (-134)
Tennesse Titans
- Home: IND/JAX/HOU + KC, BUF, SF, *NO, MIA, ARI
- Road: IND/JAX/HOU + LAR, SEA, NE, PIT, NYJ
- Draft: 1.22, 2.53, 3.85, 3.100, 4.126, 5.166, 6.205, 6.215, 7.232
- Additions: WR Josh Reynolds (80/112), OT Kendall Lamm, , DE Denico Autry (71/125), LB Bud Dupree (81/125), LB Olasunkanmi Adeniyi, Janoris Jenkins (42/136), CB Kevin Johnson (107/136), CB Matthias Farley, LS Morgan Cox
- Departures:RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Corey Davis (8/112), WR Adam Humphries (65/112), WR Kalif Raymond, TE Jonnu Smith (11/48), OT Dennis Kelly (52/89), OT Isaiah Wilson, G Jamil Douglas,, DT DaQuan Jones (53/125), DE Jadeveon Clowney, CB Malcolm Butler (24/136), CB Desmond King II (50/136), CB Adoree Jackson, CB Chris Milton, CB Joshua Kalu, S Kenny Vaccaro (63/99)
With an 11-5 record, the Titans overshot their Pythagorean total of 9.1 by nearly two full wins, lucking out to the tune of a 7-2 record in one-score games.
They're more top-heavy than ever after being gutted of depth in free agency, which does them no favors with an extra game tacked on to the season. The loss of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is also a concern, and their pass rush is overly dependent on risky free-agent signing Bud Dupree, who is coming off an ACL injury.
The Titans could be good, but they're fragile.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-150) » Bet at DraftKings
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Home: IND/TEN/HOU + BUF, SF, MIA, ARI, *ATL, DEN
- Road: IND/TEN/HOU + LAR, SEA, NE, NYJ, CIN
- Draft: 1.1, 1.25, 2.33, 2.45, 3.65, 4.106, 4.130, 5.145, 5.170, 7.249
- Additions: QB C.J. Beathard, RB Carlos Hyde (42/63), WR Marvin Jones Jr. (48/112), WR Jamal Agnew, WR Phillip Dorsett, TE Chris Manhertz, DT Malcolm Brown (32/138), DT Roy Robertson-Harris (56/138), DE Jihad Ward (52/125), LB Damien Wilson (62/99), CB Shaquill Griffin (55/136), S RayShawn Jenkins (24/99), S Rudy Ford
- Departures:RB Chris Thompson, WR Chris Conley (63/112), WR Keelan Cole (86/112), WR Dede Westbrook, WR Trey Quinn. TE Tyler Eifert (35/48), TE Josh Oliver, CB Rashaan Melvin, CB Quenton Meeks, CB Josh Nurse
The Jaguars got better this offseason and will presumably add Trevor Lawrence and more talent in the draft, butseven wins is still a stretch for a first-year coach of a team coming off a 1-15 season.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-121) » Bet at DraftKings
Houston Texans
- Home: IND/TEN/JAX + LAR, SEA, NE, LAC, NYJ, *CAR
- Road: IND/TEN/JAX + BUF, SF, CLE, MIA, ARI
- Draft: 3.67, 4.109, 5.147, 5.158, 5.195, 6.203, 6.212, 7.233
- Additions: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Phillip Lindsay (35/63), RB Mark Ingram, WR Chris Conley (63/112), WR Alex Erickson, WR Andre Roberts, WR Chris Moore, WR Donte Moncrief, TE Ryan Izzo, TE Antony Auclair, OT Marcus Cannon, OT Cole Toner, G Lane Taylor, G Justin McCray, C Justin Britt, DE Shaq Lawson (50/121), DT Maliek Collins (131/138), DT Jaleel Johnson (134/138), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (19/99), LB Jordan Jenkins (39/125), LB Christian Kirksey (85/99), LB Nate Orchard, LB Tae Davis, CB Terrance Mitchell (45/136), CB Desmond King II (50/136), CB Tavierre Thomas, S Terrence Brooks (91/99), P Cameron Johnston
- Departures:RB Duke Johnson (54/63), FB Cullen Gillaspia, WR Will Fuller V (10/112), WR Chad Hansen, WR Damion Ratley, TE Darren Fells (17/48), G Beau Benzschawel, C Nick Martin (31/38), DT Carlos Watkins (121/138), DE J.J. Watt (7/125), LB Benardrick McKinney (44/99), LB Tyrell Adams, CB Garreon Conley, P Bryan Anger (9/34)
Deshaun Watson's future is in question, the team doesn't have a draft pick until the third round, and the new regime's roster building strategy appears to be special teamers and a cloud of dust on offense. But 4.5 is a risky under bet, especially if Watson doesn't end up missing the entire season.
AFC WEST
Kansas City Chiefs
- Home: DEN/LV/LAC + GB*, BUF, CLE, DAL, PIT, NYG
- Road: DEN/LV/LAC + BAL, TEN, WAS, PHI, CIN
- Draft: 1.31, 2.63, 3.95, 4.136, 4.144, 5.175, 5.181, 6.207
- Additions: FB Mike Burton (6/8), TE Blake Bell, OT Orlando Brown Jr. (26/89), OT Lucas Niang (2020 opt-out), G Joe Thuney (10/86), G Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (2020 opt-out), G Kyle Long, C Austin Blythe (13/38), DT Jarran Reed (92/138)
- Departures:RB Le’Veon Bell (24/63), RB Damien Williams, FB Anthony Sherman (2/8), WR Sammy Watkins (86/112), TE Ricky Seals-Jones, OT Eric Fisher (18/89), OT Mitchell Schwartz (29/89), C Austin Reiter (10/38), DE Alex Okafor (94/125), DE Tanoh Kpassagnon (101/125), LB Damien Wilson (62/99), CB Bashaud Breeland (38/136)
The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes at quarterback and have gone over their win total in all eight seasons under Andy Reid.
Pick: Over 12 (-110) » Bet at DraftKings
Los Angeles Chargers
- Home: KC/DEN/LV + CLE, DAL, NE, *MIN, PIT, NYG
- Road: KC/DEN/LV + BAL, WAS, PHI, CIN, HOU
- Draft: 1.13, 2.47, 3.71, 3.97, 4.118, 5.160, 6.200, 6.206, 7.235
- Additions: QB Chase Daniel, TE Jared Cook (13/48), OT Oday Aboushi, G Matt Feiler (36/86), C Corey Linsley (1/38), LB Kyler Fackrell (94/125), CB Ryan Smith
- Departures: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Kalen Ballage (52/63), TE Hunter Henry (18/48), OT Sam Tevi (82/89), OT Cole Toner, G Forrest Lamp (77/86), G Trai Turner (84/86), C Dan Feeney (37/38), C Mike Pouncey, DE Melvin Ingram (25/138), DE Isaac Rochell (111/125), LB Denzel Perriman (2/99), LB Nick Vigil (35/99), LB Malik Jefferson, CB Casey Hayward Jr. (75/136), S Rayshawn Jenkins (24/99)
Former Rams defensive coordinator Brandon Staley replaces Anthony Lynn at head coach, Justin Herbert is coming off a Rookie of the Year campaign, and the Chargers signed PFF's top-ranked center. They also have five picks in the top 118.
Still, the team has holes at offensive tackle and throughout the back-seven of the defense, which could render them a shootout team despite Staley's defensive track record with the Rams.
With a first-year coach and depth concerns, I think 8-9 is more likely than 10-7.
Pick: Under 9 (-114) » Bet at DraftKings
Las Vegas Raiders
- Home: KC/LAX/DEN + BAL, MIA, WAS, CHI*, PHI, CIN, PHI
- Road: KC/LAX/DEN + IND, CLE, DAL, PIT, NYG
- Draft: 1.17, 2.48, 3.79, 3.80, 4.121, 5.162, 5.167, 6.200
- Additions: RB Kenyan Drake (55/63), WR John Brown (62/112), WR Willie Snead IV (54/112), WR Trey Quinn, C Nick Martin (31/38), DT Quinton Jefferson (82/138), DT Darius Philon, DE Yannick Ngakoue (36/125), DE Solomon Thomas, S Karl Joseph (85/99)
- Departures: RB Devontae Booker (39/63), WR Nelson Agholor (47/112), WR Tyrell Williams, TE Jason Witten, OT Trent Brown (48/89), G Gabe Jackson (43/86), C Rodney Hudson (8/38), DT Maurice Hurst (21/138), DT Maliek Collins (131/138), DE Arden Key (90/125), S LaMarcus Joyner (97/136), S Erik Harris (72/99)
Despite Derek Carr's best season, this was an 8-8 team that played at a 7.1 Pythagorean win level that went on to have one of the NFL's worst offseasons.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-110) » Bet at DraftKings
Denver Broncos
- Home: KC/LAC/LV + BAL, WAS, PHI, CIN, NYJ, *DET
- Road: KC/LAC/LV + CLE, DAL, PIT, NYG, JAX
- Draft: 1.9, 2.40, 3.71, 4.114, 5.152, 6.191, 7.237, 7.239, 7.253
- Additions: RB Mike Boone, OT Ja’Wuan James (2020 opt-out), DT Shamar Stephen (72/138), CB Ronald Darby (14/136), CB Kyle Fuller (55/136)
- Departures:QB Blake Bortles, RB Phillip Lindsay (35/63), WR Fred Brown, TE Nick Vannett, OT Elijah Wilkinson (83/89), DT Kyle Peko, DT Joel Heath, DE Jurrell Casey, LB Jeremiah Attaochu (71/125), CB A.J. Bouye (87/136)
The signings of Darby and Fuller address a major weakness from last season and leaves the starting defenses with no holes. With James back after opting out of 2020, the offensive line should be strong at four of five spots, and the return of Courtland Sutton will fortify a strong skill position corps.
Drew Lock is still a major question mark, but he is in a much better spot than last year, and this is the second-most talented team in the division with a lot of winnable games on the schedule against the Eagles, Bengals, Jets, Jaguars, Lions, Jaguars, Giants, Raiders (twice), and Chargers (twice).
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
- Home: WAS/NYG/PHI + ARI, CAR, LV, DEN, ATL
- Road: WAS/NYG/PHI + KC, TB, NE, NO, LAC, MIN
- Draft: 1.10, 2.44, 3.75, 3.99, 4.115, 4.138, 5.179, 6.192
- Additions: TE Jeremy Sprinkle, OT Ty Nsekhe, DT Brent Urban (20/138), DT Carlos Watkins (121/138), LB/S Keanu Neal (29/99), S Damontae Kazee (44/99), S Jayron Kearse (73/99), P Bryan Anger (9/34), LS Jake McQuaide
- Departures: QB Andy Dalton (24/42), FB Jamize Olawale, TE Blake Bell, OT Cam Erving (76/89), C Joe Looney (35/38), DT Tyrone Crawford (105/138), LB Aldon Smith (57/125), LB Sean Lee, CB Chidobe Awuzie (103/136), S Xavier Woods (58/99), P Chris Jones (26/34)
The defense needs to take a major jump, the offensive line is not what it once was, and Mike McCarthy is 6-8 toward the over as a head coach.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-134) » Bet at DraftKings
Washington Football Team
- Home: DAL/NYG/PHI + KC, TB, SEA, NO, LAC
- Road: DAL/NYG/PHI + GB, *BUF, CAR, LV, DEN, ATL
- Draft: 1.19, 2.51, 3.74, 3.82, 4.124, 5.163
- Additions: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (19/42), WR Curtis Samuel (31/112), WR Adam Humphries (65/112), WR DeAndre Carter, C Tyler Larsen, LB David Mayo, CB William Jackson III (26/136), CB Daryl Roberts (95/136)
- Departures: QB Alex Smith (31/42), TE Jeremy Sprinkle, DE Ryan Kerrigan (85/138), DE Ryan Anderson, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (19/99), LB Thomas Davis, CB Ronald Darby (14/136), CB Fabian Moreau, LS Nick Sundberg
Fitzpatrick, Samuel and Jackson fortify this team's needs and make Washington a dangerous contender. I consider Washington, not Dallas, the best team in the NFC East. If you agree, you may also want to jump on Washington +260 to win the NFC East.
Pick: Over 8 (-134) » Bet at DraftKings
New York Giants
- Home: DAL/WAS/PHI + LAR, CAR, LV, DEN, ATL
- Road: DAL/WAS/PHI + KC, TB, NO, *MIA, LAC, CHI
- Draft: 1.11, 2.42, 3.76, 4.116, 6.196, 6.201
- Additions: QB Mike Glennon, RB Devontae Booker (39/63), FB Cullen Gillaspia, WR Kenny Golladay (19/112), WR John Ross, TE Kyle Rudolph (27/48), G Zach Fulton (44/86), OT Nate Solder (2020 opt-out), DT Danny Shelton (113/138), DE Ifeadi Odenigbo (78/125), DE Ryan Anderson, LB Reggie Ragland (74/99), LB Del'Shawn Phillips, Adoree Jackson, CB Chris Milton, CB Joshua Kalu
- Departures: QB Colt McCoy, RB Wayne Gallman (33/63), RB Devonta Freeman, WR Golden Tate (79/112), G Kevin Zeitler (32/86), DT Dalvin Tomlinson (25/138), LB Devante Downs (81/99), LB Kyler Fackrell (94/125), LB David Mayo, CB Ryan Lewis (128/136)
The free-agency haul looks good on paper, but many of the signings have struggled with injury or a decline in performance as of late. The Giants' biggest weaknesses are still at quarterback, offensive line and offensive coordinator. And given the track record of general manager Dave Gettleman, improving the O-line via the draft is no guarantee.
Seven is about right, but there is more downside than upside.
Lean: Under 7 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles
- Home: DAL/WAS/NYG + TB, KC, SF, NO, LAC
- Road: DAL/WAS/NYG + CAR, LV, DEN, ATL, *NYJ, DET
- Draft: 1.12, 2.37, 3.70, 3.84, 4.123, 5.150, 6.189, 6.224, 6.225, 7.234, 7.240
- Additions: QB Joe Flacco (41/42), LB Eric Wilson (57/99), CB Shakial Taylor, S Anthony Harris (38/99)
- Departures: QB Carson Wentz (34/42), QB Nate Sudfeld, WR DeSean Jackson, WR Alshon Jeffery, TE Richard Rodgers (2/48), OT Jason Peters (50/89), LB Nate Gerry (83/99), S Jalen Mills (24/99), S Rudy Ford, S Blake Countess, P Cam Johnston (23/34)
A combination of restored health, an injection of youth, and a full offseason for second-year quarterback Jalen Hurts to develop as the starter gives this team a lot of upside. Even though the Eagles bottomed out with a 4-11-1 record last year, they were 1.9 wins better according to point differential and are by no means as devoid of talent as the typical 4-6-win team.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-134) » Bet at DraftKings
NFC NORTH
Green Bay Packers
- Home: MIN/CHI/DET + LAR, SEA, CLE, PIT, WAS
- Road: MIN/CHI/DET + *KC, BAL, SF, NO, ARI, CIN
- Draft: 1.29, 2.62, 3.92, 4.135, 4.142, 5.173, 5.178, 6.214, 6.220, 7.256
- Additions: WR Devin Funchess (2020 opt-out), TE Isaac Nauta
- Departures: QB Tim Boyle, RB Jamaal Williams (27/63), RB Tyler Ervin, OT Rick Wagner (25/89), OT Jared Veldheer, G Lane Taylor, C Corey Linsley (1/38), DE Montravius Adams, LB Christian Kirksey (85/99), CB Tramon Williams, S Raven Greene (60/99)
The schedule is brutal and the Packers will rely exclusively on the draft to improve the roster, but they've gone 13-3 in both seasons under Matt LaFleur.
Lean: Over 10.5 (-143)
Minnesota Vikings
- Home: GB/CHI/DET + LAR, CLE, SEA, DAL, PIT
- Road: GB/CHI/DET + BAL, SF, *LAC, ARI, CAR, CIN
- Draft: 1.14, 3.78, 3.90, 4.119, 4.125, 4.134, 4.143, 5.157, 5.168, 6.199
- Additions: C Mason Cole (32/38), DT Dalvin Tomlinson (25/138), DT Michael Pierce (2020 opt-out), DE Stephen Weatherly (106/125), LB Nick Vigil (35/99), CB Mackensie Alexander (70/136), CB Patrick Peterson (90/136), S Xavier Woods (55/99), K Greg Joseph
- Departures: RB Mike Boone, TE Kyle Rudolph (27/48), OT Riley Reiff (40/89), DT Shamar Stephen (72/138), DT Jaleel Johnson (134/138), DE Ifeadi Odenigbo (78/125), LB Eric Wilson (57/99), S Anthony Harris (38/99), K Dan Bailey (36/36)
The Vikings fell two wins short of their preseason total a year ago, but Kirk Cousins threw 35 scores and Mike Zimmer made it rain on defense in the offseason.
Since Zimmer took over in 2014, the Vikings have never gone under their win total two years in a row.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-143) » Bet at DraftKings
Chicago Bears
- Home: GB/MIN/DET + BAL, SF, ARI, NYG, CIN
- Road: GB/MIN/DET + TB, LAR, SEA, CLE, PIT, *LV
- Draft: 1.20, 2.52, 3.83, 5.164, 6.204, 6.208, 6.221, 6.228
- Additions: QB Andy Dalton (24/42), RB Damien Williams, WR Marquise Goodwin, OT Elijah Wilkinson (83/89), DT Angelo Blackson (126/138), DT Eddie Goldman (2020 opt-out), LB Jeremiah Attaochu (71/125), LB Christian Jones (122/125), CB Desmond Trufant (133/136), S Jordan Lucas (2020 opt-out)
- Departures: QB Mitch Trubisky (36/42), WR Cordarrelle Patterson, WR DeAndre Carter, OT Bobby Massie (36/89), G Rashaad Coward (80/86), DT Brent Urban (20/138), DT John Jenkins (32/138), DT Roy Robertson-Harris (56/138), LB Barkevious Mingo, CB Kyle Fuller (55/136), CB Buster Skrine (100/136), S Tashaun Gipson (31/99)
Six of the Bears' eight wins last season came by one score, and they got worse in free agency. They finished exactly on their win total last year and will likely do the same, but with the worst quarterback situation in the division, there's still the potential for the bottom to fall out if the defense takes a step back.
Lean: Under 7 (-110)
Detroit Lions
- Home: GB/MIN/CHI + BAL, SF, ARI, CIN, PHI
- Road: GB/MIN/CHI + LAR, SEA, CLE, PIT, *DEN, ATL
- Draft: 1.7, 2.41, 3.72, 3.101, 4.112, 5.153
- Additions: QB Jared Goff (22/42), QB Tim Boyle, RB Jamaal Williams (27/63), WR Breshad Perriman (90/112), WR Tyrell Williams, WR Kalif Raymond, WR Damion Ratley, WR Geronimo Allison (2020 opt-out), WR Damion Ratley,TE Josh Hill, DT Michael Brockers (67/138), DT Joel Heath, DE Charles Harris (100/125), LB Alex Anzalone (33/99), CB Corn Elder (36/136), CB Quinton Dunbar (119/136), K Randy Bullock (30/36)
- Departures: QB Matthew Stafford (13/42), QB Chase Daniel, RB Adrian Peterson (58/63), WR Kenny Golladay (19/112), WR Danny Amendola (42/112), WR Marvin Jones Jr. (48/112), WR Jamal Agnew, WR Mohamed Sanu, TE Jesse James, TE Isaac Nauta, OT Oday Aboushi, DT Danny Shelton (113/138), DE Eversen Griffen (68/125), LB Reggie Ragland (74/99), LB Christian Jones (122/125), CB Daryl Roberts (95/136), CB Justin Coleman (128/136), CB Desmond Trufant (133/136), S Duron Harmon (41/99), S Jayron Kearse (73/99), S Miles Killebrew, K Matt Prater (19/36)
Immense roster turnover, a first-year head coach (Dan Campbell), and a tough schedule don't leave much upside, but betting the under on these low win totals is always risky.
NFC SOUTH
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Home: NO/CAR/ATL + BUF, DAL, MIA, CHI, NYG
- Road: NO/CAR/ATL + LAR, *IND, NE, WAS, PHI, NYJ
- Draft: 1.32, 2.64, 3.95, 4.137, 5.176, 6.217, 7.251, 7.259
- Additions: RB Giovani Bernard (48/66)
- Departures:QB Blaine Gabbert, QB Ryan Griffen, RB LeSean McCoy, WR Antonio Brown (11/112), TE Antony Auclair, OT Joe Haeg, DT Steve McClendon (62/138), CB Ryan Smith
The Bucs' lack of additions is deceiving; they kept together nearly everyone from their Super Bowl winning outfit. Besides, Tom Brady's career win total record is 15-2-2.
Pick: Over 11.5 (-125) » Bet at DraftKings
New Orleans Saints
- Home: TB/CAR/ATL + GB, BUF, DAL, MIA, NYG,
- Road: TB/CAR/ATL + SEA, NE, TEN, WAS, PHI, NYJ
- Draft: 1.28, 2.60, 3.98, 3.105, 4.133, 6.218
- Additions: FB Alex Armah (8/8), TE Nick Vannett, DE Tanoh Kpassagnon (101/125)
- Departures: QB Drew Brees (21/42), FB Mike Burton (6/8), WR Emmanuel Sanders (44/112), TE Jared Cook (13/48), TE Josh Hill, DT Malcolm Brown (32/138), DT Sheldon Rankins (89/138), DE Trey Hendrickson (26/125), LB Alex Anzalone (33/99), LB Kwon Alexander (43/99), CB Janoris Jenkins (42/136), CB Justin Hardee, P Thomas Morestead (24/34)
The Saints are 9-4-1 toward the over under Sean Payton and 8-1 straight-up over the past two seasons without Drew Brees. The Saints will take a step back, but with two viable quarterbacks in Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston, odds are they finish with a winning record and still get the push at worst.
Pick: Over 9 (-110) » Bet at DraftKings
Carolina Panthers
- Home: TB/NO/ATL + NE, MIN, WAS, PHI, NYJ
- Road: TB/NO/ATL + BUF, DAL, MIA, ARI, NYG, *HOU
- Draft: 1.8, 2.39, 3.73, 4.113, 5.151, 6.193, 6.222
- Additions: QB Sam Darnold (37/42), WR David Moore (75/112), TE Dan Arnold (37/48), OT Cam Erving (76/89), G Pat Elflein (78/86), DT Morgan Fox (80/138), LB Denzel Perryman (2/99), LB Haason Reddick (24/125), LB Frankie Luvu (64/125), CB A.J. Bouye (87/136), CB Rashaan Melvin
- Departures: RB Mike Davis (21/63), FB Alex Armah (8/8), WR Curtis Samuel (31/112), TE Chris Manhertz, OT Russell Okung (34/89), G Chris Reed (44/86), C Tyler Larsen, DT Zach Kerr (10/138), DT Efe Obada (84/138), DT Kawann Short, DE Stephen Weatherly (106/125), CB Corn Elder (36/136), S Tre Boston (79/99), P Michael Palardy
Teddy Bridgewater went 4-11 (.267) as the starter in Year 1 with the Panthers, and Darnold is 13-25 (.342) in his career as a starter with a QBR that dropped each season. The Panthers' top position of improvement via free agency was linebacker, which is known as one of the less impactful positions these days.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-115) » Bet at DraftKings
Atlanta Falcons
- Home: TB/NO/CAR + NE, WAS, PHI, DET, NYJ
- Road: TB/NO/CAR + BUF, SF, DAL, MIA, NYG, *JAX
- Draft: 1.4, 2.35, 3.68, 4.108, 5.148, 5.182, 5.183, 6.187, 6.219
- Additions: RB Mike Davis (21/63), WR Cordarrelle Patterson, TE Lee Smith, G Josh Andrews (82/86), DT Jonathan Bullard, LB Barkevious Mingo, LB Brandon Copeland, CB Fabian Moreau, S Duron Harmon (41/99), S Erik Harris (72/99)
- Departures:RB Brian Hill (63/66), RB Todd Gurley (63/63), RB Ito Smith, WR Brandon Powell, G James Carpenter (64/86), G Justin McCray, C Alex Mack (18/38), DE Charles Harris (100/125), DT Allen Bailey (114/138), LB Laroy Reynolds, S Keanu Neal (29/99), S Damontae Kazee (44/99), S Ricardo Allen (55/99)
With former standout Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith taking over at head coach and veteran Dean Pees taking over at defensive coordinator, this team should be well coached.
The Falcons are also massive regression candidates after posting a 4-12 record despite 7.6 Pythagorean wins last season. That said, the roster has too many holes — center, guard, edge rusher, cornerback and safety — to fix in one draft. Get past sexy headliners Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Grady Jarrett, and this is not a talented roster.
I think 6-11 is a better bet than 8-9, especially with plus-money juice.
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams
- Home: SF/SEA/ARI + TB, TEN, CHI, JAX, DET
- Road: SF/SEA/ARI + GB, *BAL, IND, MIN, NYG
- Draft: 2.57, 3.88, 3.103, 4.141, 6.209, 6.252
- Additions: QB Matthew Stafford (13/42), WR DeSean Jackson,
- Departures: QB Jared Goff (22/42), RB Malcolm Brown (61/63), WR Josh Reynolds (80/112), TE Gerald Everett (32/48), C Austin Blythe (13/38), DT Michael Brockers (67/138), DT Morgan Fox (80/138), DE Samson Ebukam (97/125), LB Jake McQuaide, CB Troy Hill (18/136), S John Johnson (3/99)
Since being drafted in 2009, Stafford has led his team to double-digit wins twice and is 23-54 against teams with winning records, according to our Action Labs data. Conversely, he has never had a defense this good, and Sean McVay is 3-1 toward the over since becoming the head coach in 2017.
Still, this is the NFL's toughest division and the road slate is not forgiving.
Lean: Under 10.5 (-150)
San Francisco 49ers
- Home: LAR/SEA/ARI + GB, IND, MIN, ATL, HOU
- Road: LAR/SEA/ARI + TEN, CHI, JAX, PHI, *CIN, DET
- Draft: 1.3, 2.43, 3.102, 4.117, 5.155, 5.172, 5.180, 6.194, 7.230
- Additions: QB Nate Sudfeld, WR Mohamed Sanu, WR Trent Sherfield, C Alex Mack (18/38), DT Zach Kerr (10/138), DE Samson Ebukam (97/125), LB Nate Gerry (83/99), S Tavon Wilson
- Departures:QB Nick Mullens (38/42), QB C.J. Beathard, RB Jerick McKinnon (25/63), RB Tevin Coleman,, WR Kendrick Bourne (52/112), TE Jordan Reed (28/48), DE Kerry Hyder (43/125), DE Solomon Thomas, DE Dion Jordan (76/125), LB Mark Nzeocha, CB Ahkello Witherspoon (6/136), CB Richard Sherman (38/136), CB Jamar Taylor
The 49ers finished 6-10 last season, underperforming their Pythagorean win total by 1.7 wins. They should have better injury luck and have a boatload of draft capital. That said, 11 wins is still overly optimistic in the league's toughest division for a team that has won more than six games just once in four seasons under Kyle Shanahan.
Lean: Under 10.5 (-150)
Seattle Seahawks
- Home: LAR/SF/ARI + TEN, NO, CHI, JAX, DET
- Road: LAR/SF/ARI + GB, IND, WAS, MIN, PIT, HOU
- Draft: 2.56, 4.129, 7.250
- Additions: TE Gerald Everett (32/48), LG Gabe Jackson (43/86), DT Al Woods (2020 opt-out), DE Kerry Hyder (43/125), LB Aldon Smith (57/125), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (6/136)
- Departures: RB Carlos Hyde (42/63), WR David Moore (75/112), WR Phillip Dorsett, TE Jacob Hollister (34/48), TE Greg Olsen (36/48), C Justin Britt, DT Jarran Reed (92/138), DT Jonathan Bullard, LB K.J. Wright (8/99), LB Shaquem Griffin, CB Shaquill Griffin (55/136), CB Quinton Dunbar (119/136)
Seattle has won 10-plus games in 8-of-9 years with Russell Wilson. With the addition of guard Gabe Jackson, Wilson projects to be protected by five starters — Duane Brown, Jackson, Pocic, Damien Lewis and Brandon Shell — who each ranked above average in PFF's Pass Blocking Efficiency metric last season.
Wilson will also be backed by a defense that allowed just 16 points per game over its last eight of 2020. This is one of my favorite win total bets, and Seahawks +275 to win the NFC West is live as well.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-110) » Bet at DraftKings
Arizona Cardinals
- Home: LAR/SF/SEA + GB, IND, MIN, CAR, HOU
- Road: LAR/SF/SEA + TEN, *CLE, DAL, CHI, JAX, DET
- Draft: 1.16, 2.49, 5.160, 6.223, 7.243, 7.247
- Additions: QB Colt McCoy, RB James Conner (43/63), WR A.J. Green (77/112), C Rodney Hudson (8/38), DE J.J. Watt (7/125), DE Shareef Miller, CB Malcolm Butler (24/136), S Shawn Williams, K Matt Prater (19/36)
- Departures:QB Brett Hundley, RB Kenyan Drake (55/63), RB D.J. Foster, WR Larry Fitzgerald (100/112), WR Trent Sherfield, TE Dan Arnold (37/48), TE Seth DeValve, G J.R. Sweezy (73/86), C Mason Cole (32/38), DT Corey Peters (75/138), DT Domata Peko (120/138), DT Angelo Blackson (126/138), DT Josh Mauro, LB Haason Reddick (24/125), LB De’Vondre Campbell (73/99), CB Johnathan Joseph (51/136), CB Patrick Peterson (90/136), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (113/136), CB Kevin Peterson
Only two draft picks in the top 150 is a concern, but the Cards played to the level of a 9-win team last season despite an 8-8 record and made some high-upside moves in free agency.
Lean: Over 8 (-110)
